2025 Economic Transition: Disinflation, Currency Stress, and Labor Shifts: UPSC Current Affairs Analysis & Study Strategy

In-Depth Analysis

The Big Picture

The year 2025 represents a rare 'disinflationary shock' for India, where the primary concern shifted from high inflation to an unprecedented breach of the lower inflation tolerance band (0.25% in October). This domestic cooling contrasts sharply with external volatility, characterized by the Rupee's depreciation to 91 per USD and a massive surge in household gold valuation ($5 trillion), indicating a divergence between local consumption prices and global asset valuations.

Cross-Theme Insight

Together, these threads reveal a 'Dual-Track Economy': while industrial indicators (IIP at 4%, Manufacturing exports rising) and labor markets (unemployment at a low of 4.7%) show resilience, the monetary side faces a 'low-inflation trap' where food deflation (-2.71%) signals weak rural demand. The massive investment in gold and silver—surging 160%—serves as a hedge against the Rupee's 2025 depreciation, suggesting that Indian households are pivoting to commodities to protect wealth despite falling domestic consumer prices.

Textbook vs Reality Gap

Standard textbooks emphasize the RBI's battle against high inflation (upper bound of 6%), but 2025 reality highlights the risks of hitting the lower bound of 2%. Nitin Singhania (2021) states the target is '4 per cent (± 2%)' and the MPC is 'responsible to contain annual inflation at 4 per cent'. However, the December 2025 MPC minutes (Thread 3) show the committee flagging the 'breach of the lower bound' (0.25%) as a signal of weak demand, a scenario rarely explored in current static texts.

How This Theme Is Evolving

The theme evolved from a 'moderation phase' in mid-2025 (CPI ~3%) to a severe 'food deflation crisis' by Q4 2025 (CPI 0.25%). This trajectory prompted a policy shift from controlling price rises to managing demand and intervening in the forex market as the Rupee crossed the psychological 90-91 barrier.

UPSC Exam Intelligence

Previous Year Question Pattern

UPSC consistently tests the components of inflation indices and the structure of the MPC. IAS 2020 (nid: 5878) focused on the higher weightage of food in CPI vs WPI, which is critical given the 2025 food deflation. CDS-II 2025 (nid: 9845) recently updated the 'Core Inflation' definition (CPI minus food and energy), which is vital for analyzing the 2025 divergence between headline 0.25% and core stability.

Probable Prelims Angles

• Weightage of 'Refinery Products' as the highest in the Index of Eight Core Industries (28.04%).
• Definition of 'Worker Population Ratio' (WPR) vs 'LFPR' as per MoSPI's 2025 monthly PLFS reports.
• The impact of a 'high base effect' on 2025 retail inflation forecasts.
• RBI's 'Sterilization' tools (buying USD/selling bonds) to manage Rupee volatility at the 91 level.
• Distinction between CFPI (Consumer Food Price Index) and headline CPI during deflationary phases.

Mains Answer Framework

• India’s 2025 economic landscape is defined by a unique paradox: a robust manufacturing sector and record-low unemployment (4.7%) coexisting with a deflationary breach of the RBI's lower inflation target.
• The shift from cost-push inflation to food deflation (-2.71%): Impact on farmer income and the 'cobweb phenomenon' in pulses/vegetables.. External headwinds: The Rupee's slide to 91 per USD despite RBI intervention and its impact on the trade deficit.. The 'Gold Economy': Household gold holdings exceeding GDP ($5 trillion) as a structural challenge to financialization of savings.
• To sustain growth, policy must pivot from inflation-targeting to demand-stimulation while leveraging the resilient manufacturing PMI to buffer against global currency volatility.

Essay Connections

• 'The Paradox of Plenty: Managing Deflation in a Growing Economy' — use the 2025 food deflation vs. 4% IIP growth.
• 'Gold: India’s Eternal Hedge or Economic Deadweight?' — use the $5 trillion household gold vs. GDP stats.

Preparation Strategy

Reading Approach

Begin with Vivek Singh's Chapter on 'Money and Banking' to understand the 4% target framework, then overlay Thread 3 to see how 2025 violated these norms. Follow with PLFS definitions in Singhania before analyzing the Nov 2025 unemployment drop to 4.7%.

Textbook Roadmap

• Indian Economy, Nitin Singhania (2nd ed), p. 73. Numerical Target of CPI-Based Inflation and FIT framework. Thread 1 & 3 (CPI trajectory/MPC minutes)
• Indian Economy, Vivek Singh (7th ed), p. 238. Weights of Eight Core Industries. Thread 9 & 12 (IIP/Core Sector)
• NCERT Class XII Macroeconomics, p. 94. Fixed vs Flexible Exchange Rates and RBI Intervention. Thread 6 (Rupee depreciation)

Revision Bullets

• October 2025 CPI: 0.25% (all-time record low).
• December 2025 CFPI: -2.71% (7th consecutive month of negative growth).
• Rupee All-time Low: 91 per USD (Asian weakest in 2025).
• Unemployment Rate (Nov 2025): 4.7% (lowest in 7 months).
• Household Gold: 34,600 tonnes (valued at $5 trillion).
• Refinery Products Weight in IIP: 28.04% (Highest among 8 core sectors).
• BSE Sensex Milestone: Reached 84,363 in October 2025.

Sub-Themes and News Coverage (12 themes, 50 news items)

Monthly Retail Inflation (CPI) Trajectory 2025

Focus: Sequential monthly reports and forecasts tracking the specific fluctuations of India's Consumer Price Index (CPI) throughout 2025.

UPSC Value: Useful for analyzing the volatility of inflation, the impact of food prices, and the effectiveness of monetary policy over a fiscal year.

6 news items in this theme:

• 2025-10-27 [Economy] — Economy Watch: Key Economic Indicators
  Services PMI remained at 60.9 in September 2025, while overall IIP growth moderated to 4.0% in August 2025. CPI inflation fell to 1.5% in September 2025, and WPI inflation moderated to 0.1% in September 2025.
  More details

  UPSC Angle: Not exam-relevant

  Key Facts:

  • Services PMI was 60.9 in September 2025.
  • Overall IIP growth was 4.0% in August 2025.
  • CPI inflation was 1.5% in September 2025.
  • WPI inflation was 0.1% in September 2025.
• 2025-10-19 [Economy] — Retail inflation expected to decline due to base effect and GST impact
  India's retail inflation is expected to decrease further in October 2025 due to a high base effect, delayed food price seasonality, and the impact of GST reforms, according to a Union Bank of India report. The CPI inflation forecast for FY26 has been lowered to 2.6%, with expectations of remaining below target for most of the year.
  More details

  UPSC Angle: Not exam-relevant

  Key Facts:

  • CPI inflation forecast for FY26: 2.6%
  • Food prices: In negative territory since June 2025
  • Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI): Stood at -2.28%
  • Rural inflation rate: 1.07%
  • Urban inflation rate: 2.04%
  • Retail inflation decline: Expected in October 2025
  • Food prices: Negative zone since June 2025
  • Factors: High base effect, delayed food price seasonality, GST reforms
• 2025-07-14 [Economy] — MOSPI to release All India Consumer Price Index (CPI)
  On July 14, 2025, the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI) is scheduled to release the All India Consumer Price Index (CPI).
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  UPSC Angle: MOSPI to release All India Consumer Price Index (CPI).

  Key Facts:

  • All India Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released on July 14, 2025.
• 2025-06-13 [Economy] — Retail Inflation at 6-Year Low in India
  India's retail inflation fell sharply to 2.82% in May 2025, the lowest since February 2019, with food inflation dropping to 0.99%. Key items like vegetables, pulses, and meat saw price declines, aided by a favourable base effect and policy interventions like import duty cuts. Experts forecast CPI to average around 4% in FY26.
  More details

  UPSC Angle: India's retail inflation fell to 2.82% in May 2025, a 6-year low.

  Key Facts:

  • Retail inflation
  • 2.82%
  • May 2025
  • Lowest since February 2019
  • Food inflation: 0.99%
  • CPI to average around 4% in FY26
  • Retail inflation: 2.8% in May 2025
  • 75-month low
  • Average retail inflation for first two months of 2025-26: 2.99%
  • Lowest average since 2017-18
• 2025-05-14 [Economy] — Retail Inflation at Six-Year Low
  India's retail inflation eased to a six-year low in April 2025, driven by easing food prices. The CPI measures the average change in prices paid by consumers over time for a basket of goods and services and is compiled by the National Statistical Office (NSO) under the MoSPI using the base year 2012.
  More details

  UPSC Angle: Not exam-relevant

  Key Facts:

  • Retail inflation eased to a six-year low in April 2025
  • CPI is compiled by the National Statistical Office (NSO) under the MoSPI
  • CPI calculated using the base year 2012
• 2025-03-15 [Economy] — Retail Inflation Drops to 7-Month Low, Food Inflation Eases
  Retail inflation in India eased to a seven-month low of 3.61% in February, primarily due to a decline in food inflation, which fell to 3.7%, the lowest since May 2023. The National Statistical Office, under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, provided this data.
  More details

  UPSC Angle: Not exam-relevant

  Key Facts:

  • CPI-based inflation: 3.61% in February 2025
  • Rural inflation: 3.79%
  • Urban inflation: 3.32%
  • CFPI inflation: 3.75%
  • Retail inflation
  • 3.61%
  • February
  • Food inflation
  • 3.7%
  • May 2023
  • National Statistical Office
  • CPI-based inflation
  • February 2025
  • lowest since July 2024
  • rural - 3.79%
  • urban - 3.32%
  • Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI)
  • 3.75%
  • lowest since May 2023

Q4 2025 Food Deflation Crisis

Focus: Reports and policy minutes specifically tracking the severe deflationary phase in food prices (negative growth) across October, November, and December 2025.

UPSC Value: Useful for analyzing the persistence of food deflation shocks and the Monetary Policy Committee's reaction to breaching the lower inflation tolerance band.

5 news items in this theme:

• 2026-01-14 [Economy] — Negative Food Inflation in December 2025
  The All India Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) registered negative growth for the 7th consecutive month, declining to -2.71% in December 2025. Food inflation rates for rural and urban areas are at -3.08% and -2.09%, respectively.
  More details

  UPSC Angle: Negative food inflation in December 2025.

  Key Facts:

  • All India Consumer Food Price Index
  • CFPI
  • food inflation
  • -2.71% in December 2025
  • rural areas: -3.08%
  • urban areas: -2.09%
• 2025-12-20 [Economy] — MPC flags risks of very low inflation
  Minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee highlight concern that inflation has fallen too low, breaching the lower bound of the inflation target and signalling weak demand conditions in the economy. India's CPI inflation fell to a record low of 0.25% in October 2025. RBI targets 4% inflation (with ±2% band) to balance growth and stability.
  More details

  UPSC Angle: Not exam-relevant

  Key Facts:

  • India's CPI inflation fell to a record low of 0.25% in October 2025
  • RBI targets 4% inflation (with ±2% band) to balance growth and stability
• 2025-11-13 [Economy] — Retail inflation hits record low of 0.25% in October
  Retail inflation in India reached a record low of 0.25% in October due to GST cuts on mass consumption items and subdued prices for vegetables and fruits. Food inflation remained negative at -5.02% as prices of vegetables, cereals, and pulses eased.
  More details

  UPSC Angle: Not exam-relevant

  Key Facts:

  • Retail inflation hits record low of 0.25% in October.
  • Food inflation remained negative at -5.02%.
  • Vegetable prices fell 28% year-on-year.
• 2025-11-12 [Economy] — Year on Year Inflation Rate based on CPI
  In November 2025, the year-on-year inflation rate based on the CPI was 0.71% (Provisional), an increase of 46 basis points compared to October 2025. The Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) saw a decrease of -3.91% (Provisional), with rural and urban rates at -4.05% and -3.60% respectively. The increase in headline inflation and food inflation is mainly attributed to vegetables, egg, meat and fish, spices, and fuel and light.
  More details

  UPSC Angle: Not exam-relevant

  Key Facts:

  • CPI inflation: 0.71% (Provisional) in November 2025
  • October 2025 CPI inflation: 0.25%
  • CFPI inflation: -3.91% (Provisional) in November 2025
  • Rural CFPI inflation: -4.05% (Provisional)
  • Urban CFPI inflation: -3.60% (Provisional)
  • Housing inflation: 2.95% (Provisional)
  • Rural headline inflation is 0.10% (Provisional) in November 2025
  • Urban headline inflation is 1.40% (Provisional) in November 2025
• 2025-10-21 [Economy] — Wholesale Price Inflation Falls in October
  India's wholesale price inflation (WPI) fell to -1.21% in October 2025, driven by a decline in prices of food articles, fuel, and manufactured items. This is a reversal from 0.13% in September. Deflation in food articles was 8.31%, with significant declines in vegetables (-34.97%), pulses (-16.50%), potatoes (-39.88%), and onions (-65.43%).
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  UPSC Angle: Wholesale price inflation falls in October to -1.21%.

  Key Facts:

  • -1.21%: Wholesale price inflation in October 2025
  • 0.13%: WPI in September
  • 8.31%: Deflation in food articles
  • -34.97%: Deflation in vegetables
  • -16.50%: Deflation in pulses
  • -39.88%: Deflation in potatoes
  • -65.43%: Deflation in onions

Precious Metals Market Dynamics (2025-2026)

Focus: Items tracking the prices, consumption trends, and valuation of gold and silver in the Indian market throughout 2025 and early 2026.

UPSC Value: Useful for analyzing the volatility of commodities, the correlation between gold and silver prices, and the impact of global trends on Indian household assets.

5 news items in this theme:

• 2026-01-08 [Economy] — Silver Price Surge in 2025
  Silver prices increased to ₹2,46,889 per kilogram in January 2026, compared to ₹85,913 per kilogram in January 2025, a surge of approximately 160%. Reductions in Federal Reserve interest rates and growth in manufacturing sectors such as batteries, solar panels, and semiconductors contributed to the increased demand for commodities.
  More details

  UPSC Angle: Not exam-relevant

  Key Facts:

  • Silver prices increased to ₹2,46,889 per kilogram in January 2026
  • Silver prices were ₹85,913 per kilogram in January 2025
  • India is a major importer of silver, with domestic prices trading at a 12 to 13 % premium over global prices.
• 2025-11-23 [Economy] — India 2nd Largest Consumer of Gold in 2024
  According to a State Bank of India research report released in November, India emerged as the world's second-largest consumer of gold in 2024, with a total demand of 82.8 tons, accounting for 26% of global consumption. China topped the list as the largest gold consumer during the same period.
  More details

  UPSC Angle: Not exam-relevant

  Key Facts:

  • India: World's second-largest consumer of gold in 2024
  • Total demand: 82.8 tons (26% of global consumption)
  • Largest gold consumer: China
• 2025-10-15 [Economy] — Household gold value exceeds India's GDP
  The value of household gold in India is at a record high, exceeding $5 trillion, while India's nominal GDP for 2025 is projected at $4.125 trillion, with household gold estimated at 34,600 tonnes.
  More details

  UPSC Angle: Not exam-relevant

  Key Facts:

  • Household gold value
  • $5 trillion
  • India's nominal GDP (2025)
  • $4.125 trillion
  • Household gold
  • 34,600 tonnes
  • IMF
  • Morgan Stanley
• 2025-08-25 [Economy] — Gold prices decline
  On August 25, 2025, gold prices declined by Rs 34 to Rs 1,00,350 per 10 grams in futures trading due to muted spot demand and weak global cues. In international markets, gold futures fell 0.20% to USD 3,365 per ounce in New York.
  More details

  UPSC Angle: Not exam-relevant

  Key Facts:

  • Gold price
  • Rs 1,00,350 per 10 grams
  • USD 3,365 per ounce
• 2025-03-13 [Economy] — Gold Reclaims All-Time High
  Gold prices in the national capital climbed by Rs 600 to revisit the all-time high of Rs 89,450 per 10 grams due to firm global cues; silver also rallied to a nearly five-month high of Rs 1,01,200 per kg. The increase is attributed to positive global market trends.
  More details

  UPSC Angle: Not exam-relevant

  Key Facts:

  • Gold price: Rs 89,450 per 10 grams (all-time high)
  • Silver price: Rs 1,01,200 per kg (nearly 5-month high)

India's Industrial and Core Sector Performance Monitoring (2025)

Focus: Periodic statistical releases and summaries tracking India's Index of Industrial Production (IIP) and the performance of its eight core sectors throughout the 2025 period.

UPSC Value: Understanding the volatility and trends in high-frequency industrial indicators is essential for analyzing India's manufacturing health and the broader economic recovery process.

5 news items in this theme:

• 2025-10-30 [Economy] — Index of Industrial Production (IIP) Grows by 4% in September 2025
  India's industrial sector showed resilience in September 2025, with the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) growing by 4.0% year-on-year, according to the National Statistical Office (NSO). The IIP stood at 152.8 (Base Year 2011–12 = 100) in September 2025, up from 146.9 in the same month last year.
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  UPSC Angle: Index of Industrial Production (IIP) Grows by 4% in September 2025.

  Key Facts:

  • Index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew by 4.0% year-on-year in September 2025
  • According to the National Statistical Office (NSO)
  • IIP stood at 152.8 (Base Year 2011–12 = 100) in September 2025
• 2025-09-08 [Economy] — Growth in eight core sectors activity slows to 3% in September 2025
  Growth in the eight core sectors activity slows to 3% in September 2025.
  More details

  UPSC Angle: Not exam-relevant

  Key Facts:

  • Growth
  • eight core sectors
  • 3%
  • September 2025
• 2025-07-01 [Economy] — IIP growth slips to 9-month low of 1.2%
  India's Index of Industrial Production (IIP) growth has decelerated to a nine-month low of 1.2%. This slowdown in industrial output may raise concerns about economic recovery and manufacturing sector performance.
  More details

  UPSC Angle: Not exam-relevant

  Key Facts:

  • IIP growth
  • 9-month low
  • 1.2%
• 2025-04-30 [Economy] — India's Industrial Growth Slowdown
  India's industrial growth has slowed to 4% in FY25, a four-year low, due to weak manufacturing, tepid exports, and rising pressure on MSMEs. Rural consumption remains sluggish, with rural food inflation at 8.65% in December 2024, higher than the urban rate of 7.90%. The Union Budget 2025-26 allocated Rs. 20,000 crore for nuclear energy and solar power projects.
  More details

  UPSC Angle: India's industrial growth slows to 4% in FY25.

  Key Facts:

  • India's industrial growth slowed to 4% in FY25
  • Rural food inflation was 8.65% in December 2024
  • The Union Budget 2025-26 allocated Rs. 20,000 crore for nuclear energy and solar power projects
• 2025-03-12 [Economy] — Quick Estimates of Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for January 2025
  The Quick Estimates of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for January 2025 were released, showing a growth rate of 5.0 percent compared to 3.2 percent in December 2024. The growth rates for Mining, Manufacturing, and Electricity sectors were 4.4 percent, 5.5 percent, and 2.4 percent, respectively.
  More details

  UPSC Angle: Not exam-relevant

  Key Facts:

  • IIP growth rate for January 2025: 5.0 percent
  • December 2024 IIP growth rate: 3.2 percent
  • Mining sector growth: 4.4 percent
  • Manufacturing sector growth: 5.5 percent
  • Electricity sector growth: 2.4 percent
  • Quick Estimates of IIP stands at 161.3 against 153.6 in January 2024
  • The Index for February 2025 will be released on April 11, 2025

Progressive Depreciation of the Indian Rupee in 2025

Focus: A series of reports tracking the Indian Rupee's decline against the USD through specific psychological and historical milestones (87, 89, 90, and 91) and the RBI's reactive interventions.

UPSC Value: Crucial for understanding exchange rate volatility, the impact of external shocks like FPI selling and trade deficits, and the Reserve Bank of India's mandate to manage currency stability.

4 news items in this theme:

• 2025-12-17 [Economy] — Rupee's Weakness in Asia
  Multiple sources indicate concerns about the Indian rupee breaching the 91 level and becoming the weakest currency in Asia in 2025. Factors contributing to this include market sentiments, capital flow, and global cues. While this may raise concerns, some believe government actions, like open market operations, aim to stabilize the currency, though not explicitly stated.
  More details

  UPSC Angle: Not exam-relevant

  Key Facts:

  • The rupee has breached the 91 level against the dollar.
  • The rupee is considered the weakest currency in Asia in 2025.
• 2025-12-07 [Economy] — Rupee at 90: Market meltdown or RBI policy pivot?
  The Indian Rupee has reached 90 against the dollar, prompting questions about whether this is a market meltdown or a calculated policy pivot by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The situation is under scrutiny to determine the factors influencing the rupee's value and the potential implications for the Indian economy.
  More details

  UPSC Angle: Not exam-relevant

• 2025-11-28 [Economy] — Rupee Rebounds After Hitting All-Time Low
  The Indian Rupee rebounded after hitting an all-time low of ₹89.41 per USD on November 21, 2025, recovering to around ₹89.22–89.23 due to visible RBI intervention in the forex market following a sharp slide caused by trade deal uncertainty, a record trade deficit, high gold imports, and FPI selling. The RBI Governor reiterated that the RBI does not target a specific level of the rupee, but aims to curb excessive volatility.
  More details

  UPSC Angle: Not exam-relevant

  Key Facts:

  • Rupee all-time low: ₹89.41 per USD
  • November 21, 2025
  • RBI intervention
  • India–US trade deal uncertainty
  • Record goods trade deficit
  • High gold imports
  • Foreign Portfolio Investor (FPI) selling
• 2025-03-10 [Economy] — Rupee Falls Amid Weak Yuan and NDF Maturity
  On March 10, 2025, the Indian rupee experienced its steepest loss in a fortnight, falling 0.5% to 87.33 per dollar. This decline was attributed to pressure from NDF (Non-Deliverable Forward) maturities and weakness in the Chinese yuan, though dollar sales by private banks helped to mitigate further losses.
  More details

  UPSC Angle: Not exam-relevant

  Key Facts:

  • March 10, 2025
  • Indian Rupee
  • 87.33 per dollar
  • 0.5%
  • NDF maturities
  • Chinese Yuan

BSE Sensex Milestone Progression in 2025

Focus: Reports tracking the BSE Sensex as it crosses or maintains significant psychological and numerical thresholds (74k, 80k, 84k) throughout the 2025 trading year.

UPSC Value: Useful for analyzing the long-term growth trajectory and volatility of the Indian equity market over a multi-quarter period.

4 news items in this theme:

• 2025-10-20 [Economy] — Stock market closes higher on Diwali
  The Indian stock market extended its winning streak for the fourth day on Diwali, driven by investments in Reliance Industries and consistent foreign fund participation. The NSE Nifty closed at 25,843.15, up 0.52%, and the BSE Sensex concluded at 84,363.37, rising 0.49%. A special Muhurat trading session is scheduled for October 21 between 1:45 pm and 2:45 pm.
  More details

  UPSC Angle: Not exam-relevant

  Key Facts:

  • NSE Nifty closed at 25,843.15, up 0.52%
  • BSE Sensex concluded at 84,363.37, rising 0.49%
  • Muhurat trading session will take place on October 21 from 1:45 PM to 2:45 PM
  • Reliance Industries saw a notable increase of 3.52 per cent following its announcement of a 9.6 per cent year-on-year growth in net profit for the September quarter
• 2025-08-14 [Economy] — Nifty, Sensex Open Higher Amidst Cautious Market Sentiment
  On August 14, 2025, Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty opened higher, driven by global market cues, but gains were limited due to investor caution ahead of Russia-U.S. talks on Ukraine. Nifty 50 was trading above 24,600, while the Sensex was near 80,600.
  More details

  UPSC Angle: Not exam-relevant

  Key Facts:

  • Nifty 50 opened above 24,600 on August 14, 2025
  • BSE Sensex opened near 80,600
  • Broader markets witnessed a sell-off with mid and small-cap indices under pressure
  • Sensex was up 57.75 points or 0.07 percent at 80,597.66, and the Nifty was up 11.95 points or 0.05 percent at 24,631.30
• 2025-04-25 [Economy] — Stocks in News: Reliance, Axis Bank, Tech Mahindra
  Indian markets opened strongly, with the Sensex surpassing 80,000. Key stock-specific news includes Reliance Industries' Q4 results, Axis Bank's net profit at Rs 7,115 crore, and Tech Mahindra's continued IT underperformance.
  More details

  UPSC Angle: Not exam-relevant

  Key Facts:

  • Sensex climbed past the 80,000 mark.
  • Axis Bank's Q4 net profit was Rs 7,115 crore.
  • Adani Energy Solutions' Q4 profit jumped 79 per cent, revenue up 35 per cent.
  • PB Fintech announced a Rs 539 crore infusion into its health insurance arm.
• 2025-04-08 [Economy] — Indian stock markets rebound after previous day's decline
  On April 8, 2025, Indian stock markets rebounded strongly after the previous day's significant decline. The BSE Sensex surged over 1100 points to surpass 74200, while the NSE Nifty 50 climbed 1.7%, exceeding the 22500 level. This recovery was driven by bargain hunting and positive cues from Asian markets, with Japan's Nikkei 225 jumping 6.3%.
  More details

  UPSC Angle: Not exam-relevant

  Key Facts:

  • BSE Sensex surged over 1100 points to surpass 74200 on April 8, 2025.
  • NSE Nifty 50 climbed 1.7%, exceeding the 22500 level on April 8, 2025.
  • Japan's Nikkei 225 jumped 6.3%.

Official Industrial Production (IIP) and Factory Output Metrics (2025)

Focus: Official statistical releases regarding the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) and factory output for the months of March and July 2025.

UPSC Value: Analyzing IIP and factory output provides a concrete measure of industrial growth, essential for evaluating the success of secondary sector policies and GDP contributions.

4 news items in this theme:

• 2025-09-20 [Economy] — India's Manufacturing Sector Growth
  India's manufacturing sector shows positive momentum, with total exports rising 6.18% YoY to US$ 349.35 billion in April-August 2025 and merchandise exports growing 2.52% to US$ 184.13 billion. The sector is on track to reach US$ 1 trillion by FY26 and could add US$ 500 billion annually to the global economy by 2030. The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) rose 3.5% in July 2025, with manufacturing growth at 5.4% year-on-year.
  More details

  UPSC Angle: India's manufacturing sector shows positive momentum.

  Key Facts:

  • IIP grew 3.5% in July 2025
  • Manufacturing growth at 5.4% in July 2025
  • HSBC Manufacturing PMI reached 59.3 (16-month high)
  • Merchandise exports rose 2.52% YoY (Apr–Aug 2025) to US$ 184.13 billion
  • Manufacturing exports are growing steadily, with total exports rising 6.18% YoY to US$ 349.35 billion in April-August 2025
  • Unemployment rate eased to 5.0%
  • Female WPR rose to 32%
  • Sector on track to reach US$ 1 trillion by FY26
  • Could add US$ 500 billion annually to the global economy by 2030
  • Total exports rose 6.18% YoY to US$ 349.35 billion in April-August 2025.
  • Merchandise exports grew 2.52% to US$ 184.13 billion.
  • Sector on track to reach US$ 1 trillion by FY26.
  • IIP grew 3.5% in July 2025, with manufacturing growth at 5.4%.
• 2025-08-29 [Economy] — India's Industrial Growth
  India's Index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew 3.5% year-on-year in July 2025, supported mainly by a 5.4% rise in the manufacturing sector. Within manufacturing, 14 of 23 industries grew, with strong performance in basic metals (+12.7%), electrical equipment (+15.9%), and non-metallic mineral products (+9.5%).
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  UPSC Angle: India's IIP grew 3.5% year-on-year in July 2025.

  Key Facts:

  • Index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew 3.5% year-on-year in July 2025
  • Manufacturing sector rose by 5.4%
  • Mining sector contracted by 7.2%
  • Electricity grew only 0.6%
  • Strong performance in basic metals (+12.7%), electrical equipment (+15.9%), and non-metallic mineral products (+9.5%)
• 2025-04-29 [Economy] — IIP grows 3% with surge in electricity and manufacturing output
  India's Index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew by 3%. Electricity production surged 2.7 percentage points to 6.3% in March 2025 due to increased summer demand. Consumer durables and construction saw the sharpest increase at 6.6% and 8.8% respectively.
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  UPSC Angle: India's IIP grows 3% with surge in electricity and manufacturing.

  Key Facts:

  • IIP grew by 3%.
  • Electricity production surged to 6.3% in March 2025.
  • Consumer durables increased by 6.6%.
  • Construction increased by 8.8%.
• 2025-04-03 [Economy] — Factory Output Reaches 8-Month High in March
  Factory output in India reached an eight-month high in March, indicating a positive trend in the manufacturing sector. This is an important economic indicator for the UPSC syllabus.
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  UPSC Angle: Factory output in India reached an eight-month high in March.

  Key Facts:

  • Factory output reached an eight-month high in March.

India's Manufacturing PMI Performance Tracking (2025)

Focus: Sequential monthly reports of the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for India's manufacturing sector throughout the first half of 2025.

UPSC Value: Understanding high-frequency indicators like PMI is crucial for assessing real-time economic health and the impact of short-term shocks on business sentiment.

4 news items in this theme:

• 2025-08-02 [Economy] — India's manufacturing PMI hits 16-month high in July
  India's manufacturing sector saw strong growth in July, with the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) reaching a 16-month high of 59.1. This indicates expansion in output and new orders due to favorable demand conditions.
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  UPSC Angle: India's manufacturing PMI hits 16-month high in July at 59.1.

  Key Facts:

  • HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI): 59.1 in July
  • Previous month (June): 58.4
  • Improvement: Strongest since March 2024
• 2025-07-06 [Economy] — India's Manufacturing and Services PMI rise
  India's Manufacturing PMI increased to a 14-month high of 58.4 in June 2025, up from 57.6 in May 2025. Services PMI also increased to a 10-month high of 60.4 in June 2025 from 58.8 in May 2025.
  More details

  UPSC Angle: Not exam-relevant

  Key Facts:

  • Manufacturing PMI
  • 58.4
  • June 2025
  • Services PMI
  • 60.4
  • June 2025
• 2025-06-02 [Economy] — India-Pakistan Conflict and Inflation Drag May PMI to Three-Month Low
  The India-Pakistan conflict, coupled with increased competition and higher inflation, weighed down growth in the manufacturing sector in May 2025, according to a survey of private sector companies.
  More details

  UPSC Angle: Not exam-relevant

  Key Facts:

  • May 2025 PMI growth was weighed down by India-Pakistan conflict, increased competition, and higher inflation
• 2025-03-11 [Economy] — India's manufacturing growth hits 8-month high, export gains lag
  India's manufacturing sector expanded at its fastest pace in eight months in March, driven by strong demand and a sharp rise in output; however, export growth slowed to a three-month low. The India Manufacturing PMI registered 58.1 in March, up from 56.3 the previous month, and the new orders index hit an eight-month high of 61.5.
  More details

  UPSC Angle: Not exam-relevant

  Key Facts:

  • India Manufacturing PMI: 58.1 (March)
  • Previous month: 56.3
  • New orders index: 61.5 (eight-month high)
  • Q3FY25 manufacturing output growth: 3.5%
  • Q4FY24 manufacturing output growth: 14%
  • Q1FY25 manufacturing output growth: 7.5%

Mid-2025 Inflation Moderation Phase

Focus: Data releases and forecasts from May to July 2025 marking the initial transition from high inflation to a cooling trend.

UPSC Value: Tracks the onset of the disinflationary cycle in mid-2025, highlighting the divergence between WPI and CPI during the transition.

4 news items in this theme:

• 2025-07-15 [Economy] — SBI Forecasts Record Low Retail Inflation for India in July 2025
  A State Bank of India report anticipates India's retail inflation to hit a record low in July 2025, projecting an average CPI inflation of 3.0-3.2% for FY26, significantly below the RBI's 3.7% estimate. This moderation follows a recent rate cut, with the central bank now prioritizing capital formation for sustained growth and may consider another 25 bps rate cut soon.
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  UPSC Angle: SBI forecasts record low retail inflation for India in July 2025.

  Key Facts:

  • Retail inflation: 2.10% in June 2025
  • Rural inflation: 1.72%
  • Urban inflation: 2.56%
  • CFPI deflation: 1.06%
  • Retail inflation in July 2025 is expected to hit a record low.
  • Average CPI inflation for FY26 is projected at 3.0-3.2%.
  • RBI's estimate for CPI inflation in FY26 is 3.7%.
  • June 2025 CPI inflation: 2.10%
  • June 2025 food inflation: -0.20%
  • RBI focusing on supporting capital formation for sustained growth
  • Potential for another 25 bps rate cut
• 2025-07-06 [Economy] — CPI inflation eases to 77-month low
  CPI inflation eased to a 77-month low of 2.1% in June 2025 due to lower food prices, while core CPI inflation increased to 4.6% due to rising gold prices. WPI showed a contraction in prices at the wholesale level at (-)0.1% in June 2025, the first such contraction since October 2023, led mainly by a year-on-year fall in prices of food items.
  More details

  UPSC Angle: Not exam-relevant

  Key Facts:

  • CPI inflation
  • 2.1%
  • June 2025
  • Core CPI inflation
  • 4.6%
  • WPI
  • (-)0.1%
• 2025-06-17 [Economy] — WPI inflation dips to 14-month low of 0.39% in May
  India's WPI inflation has fallen to a 14-month low of 0.39% in May. This decrease, attributed to lower oil prices and strong services exports, may prompt the central bank to cut interest rates to stimulate the economy.
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  UPSC Angle: WPI inflation dips to 14-month low of 0.39% in May.

  Key Facts:

  • WPI inflation dipped to 14-month low of 0.39% in May
• 2025-06-16 [Economy] — Early data indicates potential drop in June CPI inflation
  Early food price data suggests that the June CPI inflation may further fall to 2-2.1%.
  More details

  UPSC Angle: Not exam-relevant

  Key Facts:

  • June CPI inflation may fall further to 2-2.1%.

Indian Equity Market Dynamics and Participant Behavior (December 2025)

Focus: A collection of reports from late December 2025 detailing retail investor caution, institutional portfolio rebalancing by LIC, and technical market resistance levels.

UPSC Value: Analyzing the convergence of retail sentiment, institutional strategy, and technical indicators is essential for understanding market cycles and financial stability.

3 news items in this theme:

• 2025-12-31 [Economy] — LIC's portfolio rejig in Q3FY26
  LIC completed a portfolio rejig in Q3FY26, increasing its overall holding to ₹17.50 lakh crore as of December 31, 2025, an 8.56% increase compared to the previous quarter. LIC trimmed stakes in 90 companies, mainly in the metals, chemicals, and PSU sectors, while increasing investments in 73 companies, including IT, pharma, banking, and industrial sectors.
  More details

  UPSC Angle: Not exam-relevant

  Key Facts:

  • LIC overall holding (December 31, 2025): ₹17.50 lakh crore
  • Increase compared to previous quarter: 8.56%
  • Companies where stakes were reduced: 90
  • Companies where investments increased: 73
• 2025-12-29 [Economy] — Stock recommendations for December 29, 2025
  Sumeet Bagadia recommended MMTC, Hardwyn India, and Sagility as stocks to buy on December 29, 2025. Ankush Bajaj also recommended three stocks for the same date, noting Nifty's resistance near 26,117.
  More details

  UPSC Angle: Not exam-relevant

  Key Facts:

  • Sumeet Bagadia's stock picks: MMTC, Hardwyn India, Sagility
  • Ankush Bajaj's stock picks: Not specified
  • Nifty resistance near 26,117
• 2025-12-27 [Economy] — Retail Investors Cautious in December 2025 Quarter
  Retail investors showed increased caution in the December 2025 quarter, with a significant pullback in direct equity participation. Individuals reduced their stakes in a large percentage of listed companies, while foreign investors remained net sellers.
  More details

  UPSC Angle: Not exam-relevant

  Key Facts:

  • Retail investors cut their stakes in 52% of firms in the December quarter.

India's Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) Updates

Focus: A chronological series of official PLFS data releases tracking fluctuations in India's unemployment and labor force participation rates throughout 2025.

UPSC Value: Essential for tracking the trajectory of employment in India, understanding the seasonal variations in rural/urban data, and citing official statistics for GS-3 Economy answers.

3 news items in this theme:

• 2025-12-18 [Economy] — Unemployment Rate Declines to 4.7% in India
  Unemployment Rate (UR) among persons aged 15 years and above declined to 4.7% in November 2025, the lowest level since April 2025 (5.1%). The PLFS monthly estimates are based on information collected from a total of 3, 73,229 persons surveyed including 2,13,337 from rural and 1,59,892 persons from urban areas of the country.
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  UPSC Angle: Unemployment Rate declines to 4.7% in India in November 2025.

  Key Facts:

  • Unemployment Rate (UR) among persons aged 15 years and above declined to 4.7% in November 2025.
• 2025-05-16 [Economy] — Government Releases Monthly PLFS Report for April 2025
  Government releases the first ever Monthly PLFS Report for April 2025. In April 2025, the overall LFPR was 55.6%, with rural areas at 58.0% and urban areas at 50.7%; male participation was higher (79.0% rural, 75.3% urban), while female rural LFPR stood at 38.2%. The national Worker Population Ratio (WPR) was 52.8%, with rural WPR at 55.4% and urban WPR at 47.4%; female WPR was 36.8% in rural and 23.5% in urban areas, totaling 32.5% overall. The unemployment rate for April 2025 was 5.1% nationally (5.2% for males and 5.0% for females), marking the start of a new survey phase with enhanced methodology, including a rotational panel design covering 89,434 households and 380,838 individuals nationwide.
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  UPSC Angle: Government releases monthly PLFS report for April 2025; LFPR at 55.6%.

  Key Facts:

  • Unemployment rate: 5.1% in April 2025
  • Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation (MoSPI)
  • Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS)
  • Female labour force participation increase
  • High youth unemployment among urban females
  • Monthly PLFS Report for April 2025
  • Overall LFPR: 55.6%
  • Rural LFPR: 58.0%
  • Urban LFPR: 50.7%
  • Male rural LFPR: 79.0%
  • Male urban LFPR: 75.3%
  • Female rural LFPR: 38.2%
  • National WPR: 52.8%
  • Rural WPR: 55.4%
  • Urban WPR: 47.4%
  • Female rural WPR: 36.8%
  • Female urban WPR: 23.5%
  • Overall female WPR: 32.5%
  • National unemployment rate: 5.1%
  • Male unemployment rate: 5.2%
  • Female unemployment rate: 5.0%
  • Sample size: 89,434 households and 380,838 individuals
  • PLFS: Periodic Labour Force Survey
  • LFPR: Labour Force Participation Rate
  • WPR: Worker Population Ratio
  • UR: Unemployment Rate
  • Age group: 15 years and above
  • Reference month: April 2025
  • Data released by: Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation (MoSPI)
  • Includes rural employment data
  • Releases labour statistics monthly and quarterly
  • National LFPR (April 2025): 55.6%
  • Male LFPR (rural): 79.0%
  • Male LFPR (urban): 75.3%
  • Female LFPR (rural): 38.2%
  • Female WPR (rural): 36.8%
  • Female WPR (urban): 23.5%
• 2025-04-10 [Economy] — Unemployment Rate Dips Marginally in India
  According to the PLFS 2024, India's unemployment rate (15+ age group) slightly decreased from 5.0% to 4.9%, indicating modest gains in employment opportunities. The Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR) declined slightly to 59.6%, though urban LFPR increased to 51.0%.
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  UPSC Angle: India's unemployment rate slightly decreased from 5.0% to 4.9%.

  Key Facts:

  • Unemployment rate (15+ age group) dipped from 5.0% to 4.9%
  • Rural unemployment fell to 4.2%
  • Urban female unemployment dropped from 8.9% to 8.2%
  • Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR) declined slightly to 59.6%
  • Urban LFPR increased to 51.0%

PLFS Labor Market Indicators 2024-2025

Focus: Sequential official releases and reports of Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) data by MoSPI, tracking specific metrics like LFPR and WPR.

UPSC Value: Essential for analyzing employment trends, workforce participation shifts, and the reliability of official labor statistics in the Indian economy.

3 news items in this theme:

• 2025-08-18 [Economy] — MoSPI to Release July 2025 PLFS and Q1 FY26 GDP Estimates
  The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) is scheduled to release the Monthly Bulletin of the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) for July 2025 and the Quarterly Bulletin of PLFS for the quarter April-June 2025 on August 18, 2025. MoSPI is also responsible for releasing macro-economic indicators, including GDP, and undertakes socio-economic surveys.
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  UPSC Angle: MoSPI to release July 2025 PLFS and Q1 FY26 GDP estimates.

  Key Facts:

  • MoSPI will release Monthly Bulletin of PLFS for July 2025 on August 18.
  • MoSPI will release Quarterly Bulletin of PLFS for April-June 2025 quarter on August 18.
  • MoSPI is responsible for macro-economic indicators releases like GDP, IIP and CPI.
• 2025-07-16 [Economy] — Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) - June 2025
  The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation released the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) for June 2025. The Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR) for those aged 15 years and above was 54.2% in June 2025, compared to 54.8% in May 2025.
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  UPSC Angle: PLFS June 2025: Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR) released.

  Key Facts:

  • LFPR (age 15+): 54.2% during June 2025 (54.8% in May 2025)
  • LFPR in rural areas: 56.1%
  • LFPR in urban areas: 50.4%
  • Worker Population Ratio (WPR) in rural areas (age 15+): 53.3% during June 2025
  • WPR in urban areas (age 15+): 46.8%
  • Overall WPR: 51.2%
• 2025-04-10 [Economy] — PLFS 2024 report highlights employment trends
  The Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) 2024 highlights a gradual improvement in workforce participation, particularly among males, and small decreases in unemployment rates for rural and urban female sectors. However, the overall national Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR) and Worker Population Ratio (WPR) showed slight declines, indicating potential challenges in job creation amidst a growing population.
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  UPSC Angle: PLFS 2024: Improvement in workforce participation, decreased unemployment.

  Key Facts:

  • Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS), 2024
  • gradual improvement in workforce participation, particularly among males
  • small decreases in unemployment rates for rural and urban female sectors
  • Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR)
  • Worker Population Ratio (WPR)
  • Unemployment Rate (UR)