India's Macroeconomic Trajectory (2025-2027): UPSC Current Affairs Analysis & Study Strategy

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GS-314 sub-themes · 70 news items

In-Depth Analysis

The Big Picture

As India moves through the 2025-2027 window, the economy is transitioning from a 'recovery-led' phase to a 'structural resilience' phase. While global headwinds—specifically shifting trade regimes and geopolitical fragmentation—have led international bodies like the World Bank to moderate short-term forecasts (6.3%–6.6%), India's internal 'Potential Growth' is being structurally reassessed. The central narrative has shifted from achieving a nominal GDP milestone ($5 trillion) to a broader 'Viksit Bharat 2047' vision, focusing on high-quality per-capita income growth and sustainable energy transition.

Cross-Theme Insight

A synthesis of recent IMF and RBI bulletins reveals a 'decoupling' effect: while India's cyclical growth is sensitive to global demand and US tariff policies, its structural floor is rising. The consistent outperformance of GST collections and digital transaction volumes (UPI) suggests that formalization is permanently lifting the 'Potential GDP' floor. However, the pragmatic shift of the $5 trillion target to FY29 (from the original 2024-25) reflects the reality of nominal growth being tempered by currency volatility and the need for a stable real-growth path of 7%+.

Textbook vs Reality Gap

Standard textbooks like Vivek Singh (Ch 1, p. 22) and Nitin Singhania (Ch 1, p. 9) define India's 'Potential GDP' as being between 8% to 10% based on the 2015-16 Economic Survey. However, the Economic Survey 2026 has pragmatically recalibrated this 'New Normal' potential to 7%, acknowledging that the 8%+ era required a more benign global trade environment. Additionally, while older editions discuss the $5 trillion goal as a 2024-25 target (Singhania, Ch 15), the current exam context requires knowledge of the updated FY29 timeline.

How This Theme Is Evolving

Policy discourse has evolved from 'Macro-stabilization' (2022-23) to 'Capex-led growth' (2024-25) and finally to 'Outcome-focused Maturity' (2026-27). There is a visible pivot from focusing on 'Real GDP Growth' alone to 'Per Capita Milestones'—with the current target being a jump to 'Upper Middle Income' status by 2030 and $15,000 per capita by 2047.

UPSC Exam Intelligence

Previous Year Question Pattern

UPSC frequently tests the 'steady increase/decrease' of macroeconomic indicators over 5-10 year periods (IAS 2011, NID: 14891; IAS 2017, NID: 5739). There is a high emphasis on the publications of international bodies, specifically the IMF's 'World Economic Outlook' (IAS 2014, NID: 5445). Recent years show a shift toward conceptual definitions like 'Potential GDP' (Mains 2020) and the sectoral composition of GDP (CDS-II 2006, NID: 8221).

Probable Prelims Angles

  • Difference between Real GDP (constant 2011-12 prices) vs Nominal GDP (current prices).
  • Definition of 'Potential GDP' as the maximum output an economy can produce without triggering inflation.
  • The role of the IMF in publishing the World Economic Outlook and its revised FY29 timeline for India's $5 trillion target.
  • Classification of India as a 'Lower-Middle Income' country by the World Bank vs the 'Viksit Bharat' goal of becoming High-Income by 2047.
  • Impact of GST on 'Potential GDP' (estimated boost of ~6.7% in earlier reports).

Preparation Strategy

Key Connections

Sub-Themes and News Coverage (14 themes, 70 news items)

FY25 and FY26 GDP Growth Forecast Revisions

Focus: A collection of reports from major financial institutions (RBI, WB, IMF, ADB, UN) revising India's short-term growth projections for FY25 and FY26, often citing global headwinds and US tariffs.

UPSC Value: Useful for tracking the consensus on India's short-term economic trajectory and understanding the external factors (like tariffs and global slowdown) influencing domestic growth estimates.

15 news items in this theme:

  • 2025-11-22 [Economy] — India's Economy: Goldman Sachs Forecast
    Goldman Sachs estimates India's GDP growth to decelerate to 6.3% in CY25 due to continued fiscal consolidation and slower credit growth from macro-prudential tightening by the RBI. Despite this, India's long-term structural growth story remains strong.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: Goldman Sachs estimates India's GDP growth to decelerate to 6.3%.

    Key Facts:

    • India's GDP growth is estimated to decelerate to 6.3% YoY in CY25.
    • Forecast by Goldman Sachs.
    • Cited continued fiscal consolidation.
    • Attributes deceleration to slower credit growth on macro-prudential tightening by the RBI.
  • 2025-10-27 [Economy] — RBI Revises India's Real GDP Growth Projection
    RBI revised upwards India's real GDP growth projection for FY26 to 6.8% from 6.5%, and revised downwards its CPI inflation forecast for FY26 to 2.6% from 3.1%.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: RBI revises India's real GDP growth projection for FY26 to 6.8%.

    Key Facts:

    • RBI projects India's real GDP growth for FY26 at 6.8%.
    • RBI forecasts CPI inflation for FY26 at 2.6%.
  • 2025-10-02 [Economy] — ADB Cuts India's FY26 Growth Forecast
    The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has lowered India's economic growth forecast for FY26 to 6.5% from the previous estimate of 6.7%. This revision is due to elevated U.S. tariffs impacting approximately 60% of India's exports to the U.S. The ADB also trimmed India’s growth projection for 2026-27 to 6.5% (from 6.8%).
    More details

    UPSC Angle: ADB cuts India's FY26 growth forecast to 6.5%.

    Key Facts:

    • ADB's FY26 growth forecast for India: 6.5% (revised from 6.7%)
    • Impact: Elevated U.S. tariffs on 60% of India's exports to the U.S
    • ADB's growth projection for 2026-27: 6.5% (revised from 6.8%)
  • 2025-09-07 [Economy] — The Analyst on Economic Survey 2025
    The Analyst reports on the Economic Survey 2025, which says that India's real GDP growth rate is only 6.4% for the fiscal year of 2024 to 25. The nominal GDP growth rate as an average of the last three financial years is only 7.2%, which is low to what we are actually required (7.8%).
    More details

    UPSC Angle: Not exam-relevant

    Key Facts:

    • Economic Survey 2025: India's real GDP growth rate is only 6.4% for the fiscal year of 2024 to 25
    • Nominal GDP growth rate average of the last three financial years is 7.2%, required 7.8%
  • 2025-07-24 [Economy] — ADB Lowers India's FY26 GDP Growth Forecast
    The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has revised India's GDP growth forecast for FY26 down to 6.5% from the earlier 6.7% due to the impact of US tariffs, global slowdown, and policy uncertainty affecting exports and investments. Despite the downgrade, India remains one of the fastest-growing major economies.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: ADB lowers India's FY26 GDP growth forecast to 6.5%.

    Key Facts:

    • FY26 GDP growth forecast lowered to 6.5% by ADB
    • Previous forecast was 6.7%
    • Reasons cited: US tariffs, global slowdown, and policy uncertainty
  • 2025-07-06 [Economy] — RBI Forecasters predict GDP growth
    According to a study by the RBI, forecasters have assigned the highest probability to real GDP growth in the range of 7.0-7.4 per cent for 2025-26 and in the range of 6.5-6.9 per cent for 2026-27. The economy is expected to grow at 7.4 per cent in FY26, as per the advanced estimates released by the government.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: Not exam-relevant

    Key Facts:

    • RBI
    • GDP
    • 2025-26
    • 7.0-7.4 per cent
    • 2026-27
    • 6.5-6.9 per cent
    • FY26
    • 7.4 per cent
  • 2025-06-24 [Economy] — S&P raises India's FY26 GDP growth estimate to 6.5%
    S&P Global Ratings has increased India's GDP forecast for the current fiscal year to 6.5%, citing a normal monsoon, lower crude oil prices, and monetary easing. However, they also cautioned about potential risks to the global economy due to Middle East tensions, which could impact Asia-Pacific through slower growth and pressure on current accounts.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: Not exam-relevant

    Key Facts:

    • GDP forecast for current fiscal year raised to 6.5%
    • Assumptions: normal monsoon, lower crude oil prices, monetary easing
    • Flagged risks: Middle East tensions, potential impact on Asia-Pacific
  • 2025-06-11 [Economy] — World Bank Forecasts India's FY26 Growth at 6.3%
    The World Bank has revised India's growth forecast for FY26 to 6.3%, a decrease from the previous estimate of 6.7% in January, citing weaker export performance, rising global trade barriers, and deceleration in investment growth. Despite this, India is expected to remain one of the fastest-growing economies globally, with GDP expanding by 6.5% in FY25. The World Bank also reported that approximately 270 million people in India were lifted out of extreme poverty between 2011-12 and 2022-23.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: World Bank forecasts India's FY26 growth at 6.3%.

    Key Facts:

    • India's FY26 economic growth projection: 6.3%
    • India's overall FY25 growth: 6.5%
    • World Bank revised India's growth forecast for FY26 to 6.3% from 6.7%
    • India's GDP expanded by 6.5% in FY25
    • Global growth is expected to slow to 2.3% in 2025
    • South Asia's projected growth for 2025 is 5.8%, down from 6% in 2024
    • Approximately 270 million people in India were lifted out of extreme poverty between 2011-12 and 2022-23
    • World Bank FY26 growth forecast for India: 6.3%
    • Previous forecast: 6.7%
    • Reduction: 0.4%
    • Global growth forecast: 2.3%
    • Initial projection in January: 6.7%
    • GDP growth forecast for India (2025-26): 6.3%
  • 2025-05-31 [Economy] — Provisional Estimates of GDP for 2024-25
    The National Statistics Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) released the Provisional Estimates (PE) of Annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the Financial Year (FY) 2024-25 and Quarterly Estimates of GDP for the January-March Quarter (Q4) of FY 2024-25 along with its Expenditure components both at Constant (2011-12) and Current Prices. Real GDP has recorded 6.5% growth rate in FY 2024-25.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: Provisional Estimates of GDP for 2024-25 released by NSO.

    Key Facts:

    • Real GDP growth: 6.5% in FY25, reaching â‚ą187.97 lakh crore.
    • Nominal GDP growth: 9.8% in FY25, reaching â‚ą330.68 lakh crore.
    • Q4 FY25 real GDP growth: 7.4%.
    • Real GVA growth: 6.4%.
    • Construction sector growth: 9.4%.
    • Real GDP has recorded 6.5% growth rate in FY 2024-25.
    • Released by the National Statistics Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
    • Real GDP grew by 6.5% in FY25, reaching â‚ą187.97 lakh crore
    • Nominal GDP rose by 9.8% to â‚ą330.68 lakh crore
    • In Q4 FY25, real GDP increased by 7.4%
    • Nominal GDP in Q4 FY25 increased by 10.8%
    • Real GVA growth stood at 6.4%
    • Construction sector growth: 9.4%
    • Public services growth: 8.9%
    • Financial services growth: 7.2%
    • Primary sector rebounded with 4.4% growth
  • 2025-05-17 [Economy] — UN lowers India's GDP growth forecast to 6.3% for CY25
    The United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN-DESA) has revised down India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast for Calendar Year 2025 (CY25) to 6.3%, down from 7.1% in CY24. Despite this downward projection, India remains one of the world's fastest-growing large economies, supported by strong consumption and government spending. Indian economy is projected to grow marginally in CY 26 to 6.4%.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: Not exam-relevant

    Key Facts:

    • India's GDP growth forecast for Calendar Year 2025 (CY25) revised down to 6.3% from 7.1%
    • Global economic growth rate will be at 2.4% (in 2025) and 2.5% (in 2026).
    • United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN-DESA)
    • India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast for Calendar Year 2025 (CY25): 6.3%
    • GDP growth forecast for CY24: 7.1%
    • Indian economy is projected to grow marginally in CY 26 to 6.4%
    • India GDP growth forecast lowered to 6.3% by UN
    • Rajnath Singh: Pakistan has started to rebuild destroyed terror infrastructure
    • ISRO to launch earth observation satellite on Sunday, it's 101st mission
    • Projected GDP Growth for 2025: 6.3%
    • Global Average GDP Growth for 2025: 2.4%
    • Inflation Forecast for India (2024): 4.9%
    • Inflation Forecast for India (2025): 4.3%
  • 2025-04-24 [Economy] — IMF Projects India's Economy to Grow at 6.2% in 2025
    The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects India's economy to grow at 6.2% in 2025, according to the April 2025 edition of the World Economic Outlook (WEO). Despite a downward revision of 0.3% from previous estimates, India is expected to remain the fastest-growing major economy over the next two years. The WEO, published twice a year, is the IMF's key report on global economic trends and policy challenges.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: IMF projects India's economy to grow at 6.2% in 2025.

    Key Facts:

    • IMF projects India's economy to grow at 6.2% in 2025
    • India remains the fastest-growing major economy
    • World Economic Outlook (WEO) is published twice a year by the IMF
    • IMF's April 2025 World Economic Outlook
    • India's projected GDP growth: 6.2% in 2025, 6.3% in 2026
    • China's growth forecast for 2025: 4.0%
    • US growth for 2025 revised down to 1.8%
  • 2025-04-24 [Economy] — World Bank and IMF Lower India's Growth Forecast
    The World Bank and the IMF have both reduced India's growth projections for the current fiscal year, citing global economic weakness and policy uncertainty. The World Bank lowered its forecast to 6.3%, while the IMF reduced its projection to 6.2%. Despite these revisions, the Reserve Bank of India maintains a higher growth forecast of 6.5%.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: World Bank and IMF lower India's growth forecast to 6.3%.

    Key Facts:

    • World Bank lowered India's growth forecast to 6.3% for the current fiscal year.
    • The World Bank previously projected 6.7% growth for FY 2025-26.
    • IMF lowered India's GDP forecast to 6.2% from its January estimate of 6.5%.
    • Reserve Bank of India projects a growth rate of 6.5% for India.
    • RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra highlighted the agriculture sector's expected strong performance.
    • World Bank lowers India's FY26 growth forecast to 6.3%.
    • Domestic demand will cushion impact of external headwinds.
    • Flash India PMI expands on record high export orders.
  • 2025-04-09 [Economy] — RBI Monetary Policy Statement: Real GDP projected at 6.5%
    RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra announced the Monetary Policy Statement, projecting real GDP growth for fiscal year 2025-26 at 6.5%, with risks evenly balanced amidst global uncertainties. The growth projection was marked down by 20 basis points from the earlier assessment of 6.7%, primarily reflecting the impact of global trade and policy uncertainties. India's foreign exchange reserves stood at $676.3 billion as of April 4, 2025, providing an import cover of about 11 months.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: RBI projects real GDP growth at 6.5% for fiscal year 2025-26.

    Key Facts:

    • Real GDP is projected at 6.5% for fiscal year 2025-26.
    • The growth projection has been marked down by 20 basis points from 6.7%.
    • India's foreign exchange reserves stood at $676.3 billion as of April 4, 2025.
  • 2025-03-05 [Economy] — India's Potential GDP Growth
    The Economic Survey suggests India's FY26 GDP growth is expected to be in the range of 6.3-6.8% amid global uncertainty. The survey expects inflation to remain under control and consumption to remain stable, and also expects rural demand to gain traction going forward.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: India's FY26 GDP growth expected to be in the range of 6.3-6.8%.

    Key Facts:

    • India's FY26 GDP growth is expected to be in the range of 6.3-6.8%.
  • 2025-03-01 [Economy] — SBI Cuts India's FY25 GDP Growth Forecast
    State Bank of India (SBI) revised its GDP growth estimate to 6.3% for fiscal year 2024-25. This is lower than the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) projection of 6.6% and a drop from last year's growth rate of 8.2%.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: SBI cuts India's FY25 GDP growth forecast to 6.3%.

    Key Facts:

    • SBI projects 6.3% GDP growth for FY25
    • RBI projection: 6.6%
    • Previous year's growth: 8.2%

IMF's Evolving Assessment of India's Economy

Focus: A chronological series of IMF updates and consultations specifically tracking the upward revision of India's growth projections and economic milestones.

UPSC Value: Tracks the specific trajectory of India's GDP forecasts and the IMF's changing sentiment regarding India's role in the Asian economy.

7 news items in this theme:

  • 2026-02-13 [Economy] — Finance Minister says India's economic growth is due to careful planning
    Union finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman said Indian economy is witnessing a “rare balance” of sustained high gross domestic product (GDP) growth with low inflation and inclusive development, which is not a “fluke” but an outcome of government's careful planning and calibrated policy interventions.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: India's economic growth due to careful planning: FM.

    Key Facts:

    • Nirmala Sitharaman
    • GDP
    • Union Budget 2026-27
  • 2026-01-23 [Economy] — IMF Upgrades India's Growth Forecast to 7.3% for Fiscal Year 2026
    The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised India's economic growth forecast for fiscal year 2026 to 7.3%, citing strong economic momentum. The IMF also revised India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for fiscal 2027 upwards by 20 basis points to 6.4% from its October 2025 projection.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: IMF upgrades India's growth forecast to 7.3% for FY2026.

    Key Facts:

    • IMF forecast for fiscal year 2026: 7.3%
    • Increase: 0.7 percentage point from October 2025 forecast
    • IMF forecast for fiscal year 2027: 6.4%
    • Increase: 20 basis points from October 2025 projection
    • Economic growth forecast for 2025-26: 7.3%
    • Economic growth forecast for 2026-27: 6.4%
  • 2026-01-21 [Economy] — IMF projects India to lead Asian economies
    The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that India will continue to lead among emerging and developing Asian economies, outpacing regional peers and contributing significantly to Asia's projected 5.0% growth in 2026. India's inflation is projected to approach the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) target range of 2% to 6%.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: IMF projects India to lead among Asian economies.

    Key Facts:

    • India continues to lead among emerging and developing Asian economies
    • Asia's projected 5.0% growth in 2026
    • India's inflation is projected to approach the RBI's target range of 2% to 6%
  • 2025-11-28 [Economy] — IMF Revises India's $5 Trillion Economy Timeline
    The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has adjusted its projection for India to become a $5 trillion economy, now estimating it will occur by FY29 due to slower growth and currency depreciation. This revision reflects concerns about the pace of economic expansion and the impact of currency devaluation on achieving this milestone.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: IMF Revises India's $5 Trillion Economy Timeline.

    Key Facts:

    • International Monetary Fund (IMF)
    • GDP growth
    • 6.6%
    • Fiscal Year 2025–26
    • IMF
    • India
    • $5 trillion economy
    • FY29
    • slower growth
    • currency depreciation
    • India's real GDP growth
    • 8.2%
    • July-September quarter
    • financial year 2025-26
    • 5.6%
    • National Statistics Office (NSO)
  • 2025-11-21 [Economy] — IMF Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with India
    The IMF concluded its Article IV consultation with India, noting the country's strong economic performance with 6.5% growth in FY2024/25 and 7.8% in the first quarter of FY2025/26. The IMF highlighted the resilience of India's financial and corporate sectors, and progress in fiscal consolidation. Directors encouraged further financial structural reforms and trade integration to boost competitiveness and attract FDI.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: IMF concludes Article IV consultation with India, notes strong growth.

    Key Facts:

    • Real GDP expanded by 7.8 percent in the first quarter of FY2025/26.
    • Financial and corporate sectors have remained resilient.
    • Directors encouraged authorities to mitigate vulnerabilities among nonbank financial institutions.
    • Real GDP is projected to grow at 6.6 percent in FY2025/26.
    • Potential growth for India is 6.5 percent.
  • 2025-10-15 [Economy] — IMF Raises India's Growth Projection for 2025
    The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has increased India's growth forecast for fiscal year 2026 by 20 basis points to 6.6%. This revision is attributed to strong domestic demand, government reforms, and digital transformation, which have allowed India to sustain its growth even amid global challenges. However, the IMF also projects a decline to 6.2% in 2026, citing the impact of increased US tariffs on imports from India.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: IMF raises India's growth projection for 2025 to 6.6%.

    Key Facts:

    • IMF increased India's GDP growth forecast for FY26 to 6.6%.
    • Growth projection for 2026 is 6.2%.
    • The upward revision for 2025 is attributed to strong domestic demand, government reforms, and digital transformation.
    • The downward revision for 2026 is due to the impact of increased US tariffs on imports from India.
    • IMF
    • India
    • GDP growth
    • 6.6%
    • 2025
  • 2025-07-30 [Economy] — IMF Revises India's Growth Forecast Upward to 6.4%
    The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised India's growth forecast upward to 6.4% for both FY2025–26 and FY2026–27, retaining India's position as the world's fastest-growing major economy in its July 2025 World Economic Outlook Update. The IMF attributes this to lower inflation, a more benign external environment, suspension of high tariffs, improved financial conditions, continued reform momentum, and a public investment push.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: IMF projects India's growth at 6.4% for FY26 and FY27.

    Key Facts:

    • IMF revised India's growth forecast upward to 6.4% for FY2025-26 and FY2026-27
    • Calendar-year equivalent growth: 6.7% for 2025, 6.4% for 2026
    • Global growth is projected at 3.0% (2025) and 3.1% (2026)
    • India retains position as world's fastest-growing major economy
    • IMF revised India's growth forecast to 6.4% for both 2025 and 2026.
    • India's projected growth: 6.4% for FY2026 and FY2027 (calendar-year equivalent 6.7% for 2025, 6.4% for 2026).
    • Global growth is projected at 3.0% (2025) and 3.1% (2026).
    • The IMF attributes this to: Lower inflation, especially due to falling food prices; A more benign external environment; Suspension of high tariffs, improved financial conditions; Continued reform momentum and public investment push.

Macroeconomic Monitoring: Growth, Inflation, and Policy Impact

Focus: Sequential monthly bulletins and economic reviews from the RBI and IMF tracking India's GDP growth, inflation dynamics, and the economic impact of GST reforms throughout 2025.

UPSC Value: Provides a chronological analysis of India's economic trajectory, highlighting the interplay between structural reforms (like GST) and macroeconomic indicators.

6 news items in this theme:

  • 2026-01-22 [Economy] — RBI's 'State of the Economy' Report: Growth & Global Risks
    The RBI's 'State of the Economy' report highlights India's growth resilience amid global geopolitical and geo-economic risks, emphasizing the need to balance growth and inflation, deepen structural reforms, and manage policy uncertainty. High-frequency indicators suggest sustained demand and robust economic activity, with a revival of rural demand driven by factors like GST rate cuts. The report also points out persisting global geopolitical instability necessitating strengthening domestic demand and boosting export competitiveness.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: RBI's 'State of the Economy' report highlights India's growth resilience.

    Key Facts:

    • Retail commercial vehicle sales maintained strong growth, indicating improved goods movement.
    • E-way bill generation continued healthy growth due to GST rate rationalization.
    • Rural demand revival was driven by enhanced affordability due to GST rate cuts and year-end discounts.
    • Key developments at the start of 2026 include US intervention in Venezuela, ongoing Middle East conflict, uncertainty over Russia–Ukraine peace deal, and escalation of the Greenland dispute.
    • RBI assessed macroeconomic conditions based on high-frequency indicators for December 2025.
    • Real GDP growth is estimated at 7.4% in 2025-26, up from 6.5% a year ago.
    • Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rose to 1.3% in December.
    • Rural demand revival was driven by GST rate cuts and year-end discounts.
  • 2025-11-26 [Economy] — RBI Bulletin Highlights Fiscal and Monetary Measures
    The RBI's November 2025 Bulletin emphasizes that India's economic momentum is strengthening due to coordinated fiscal, monetary, and regulatory actions, which are expected to trigger a virtuous cycle of higher private investment, productivity, and long-term growth. High-frequency indicators for October 2025 show strong expansion in manufacturing and service sectors, supported by festive season demand and the positive impact of GST reforms.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: RBI Bulletin highlights coordinated fiscal, monetary, and regulatory actions.

    Key Facts:

    • RBI Bulletin: November 2025
    • Economic momentum: Strengthening
    • Support: Coordinated fiscal, monetary, and regulatory actions
    • October indicators: Strong expansion in manufacturing and services
    • Support from: Festive season demand, GST reforms
    • Inflation: Moderated to a historic low
    • Financial conditions: Benign, enabling improved liquidity and stable borrowing costs
    • Global uncertainty: Remains elevated
  • 2025-11-06 [Economy] — IMF Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with India
    The IMF concluded its Article IV consultation with India on November 6, 2025, noting India's strong economic performance with 6.5% growth in FY2024/25 and 7.8% in the first quarter of FY2025/26. The IMF highlighted the resilience of India's financial and corporate sectors, supported by adequate capital buffers and low non-performing assets. Directors recommended continued efforts to enhance monetary transmission and greater exchange rate flexibility.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: IMF concludes Article IV consultation with India, notes strong growth.

    Key Facts:

    • IMF staff report completed on November 6, 2025
    • India's economic growth of 6.5% in FY2024/25
    • Real GDP expanded by 7.8% in the first quarter of FY2025/26
    • IMF Executive Board considered the Staff Report on November 21, 2025
  • 2025-09-24 [Economy] — RBI Releases September 2025 Bulletin
    The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) released its September 2025 monthly bulletin, featuring articles on the state of the economy, financial resources to the commercial sector, FinTech customer experience, NBFC sector performance, UPI's impact on cash demand, consumption inequality, and infrastructure's role in India's growth. The bulletin highlights GST reforms boosting ease of doing business, India's strong GDP growth at 7.8%, resilient NBFC sector, and inflation staying below target.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: Not exam-relevant

    Key Facts:

    • RBI September 2025 Bulletin
    • GDP growth: 7.8% in Q1 FY26
    • GST reforms to improve ease of doing business and reduce retail prices
    • NBFC credit growth in double digits
    • State of the Economy
    • Flow of Financial Resources to Commercial Sector in India during 2024-25
    • The Untold Story of FinTech Customers' Experience
    • Review of Performance of the NBFC Sector
    • Impact of UPI on Cash Demand - Evidence from National and Subnational Levels
    • Is Consumption Inequality Declining? - What the 2022-23 NSSO Survey Tells Us
    • Infrastructure - An Engine of India's Growth Express
  • 2025-05-24 [Economy] — RBI Bulletin May 2025: Economy, Banknotes, Tourism, and Vegetable Prices
    The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) released its May 2025 Bulletin, highlighting India's economic resilience amid global challenges. The bulletin includes articles on the state of the economy, economic activity and banknotes, digital footprints in inbound tourism, and the impact of weather anomalies on vegetable prices. India's economy showed resilience, with high-frequency indicators sustaining momentum in April. Headline CPI inflation fell for the sixth consecutive month, driven by easing food prices.
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    UPSC Angle: RBI Bulletin May 2025 highlights India's economic resilience.

    Key Facts:

    • Persistent trade frictions, heightened policy uncertainty, and weak consumer sentiment continue to create headwinds for global growth
    • Various high-frequency indicators of industrial and services sectors sustained their momentum in April
    • A bumper rabi harvest and higher acreage for summer crops, coupled with favourable southwest monsoon forecasts for 2025, augur well for the agriculture sector
    • Headline CPI inflation fell for the sixth consecutive month to its lowest since July 2019, primarily driven by the sustained easing in food prices
    • Strong association between FTA and travel-related search volume index
    • growth rate in NiC (in value terms) during 2014 - 2024 was significantly lower as compared to that in the previous two decades
    • index Granger causes FTA implying its ability to serve as a leading indicator to predict FTA
  • 2025-03-25 [Economy] — RBI Releases March 2025 Bulletin
    The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) released its March 2025 monthly bulletin, including four speeches, five articles, and current statistics. The articles cover the State of the Economy, spatial distribution of monsoon and agricultural production, changing dynamics of India's remittances, decoupling economic growth from emissions, and market access and IMF arrangements. The bulletin highlights the Indian economy's resilience amidst global challenges, underscored by the robust performance of the agriculture sector and improving consumption.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: Not exam-relevant

    Key Facts:

    • RBI released March 2025 Bulletin.
    • Includes 4 speeches and 5 articles.
    • Key articles: State of the Economy, Monsoon and Agriculture, India's Remittances, Decoupling Growth from Emissions, Market Access and IMF Arrangements.
    • Headline CPI inflation at 3.6% in February 2025.

India's Macroeconomic Targets & Performance (2025-2026)

Focus: Official projections, surveys, and reforms defining India's national economic trajectory, specifically regarding GDP growth and multi-trillion dollar targets.

UPSC Value: Connects long-term visions ($5T/$30T) with immediate structural reforms (Tax Act 2025) and performance metrics (Economic Survey 2026).

5 news items in this theme:

  • 2026-01-30 [Economy] — India's Economic Growth and Industrial Performance
    India's real GDP growth for FY27 is projected at 6.8–7.2%, with potential growth estimated around 7%. The industrial sector is projected to grow 6.2% in FY26, with H1 growth of 7.0%. PLI schemes across 14 sectors attracted over ₹2 lakh crore investment, generated ₹18.7 lakh crore incremental output, and created 12.6 lakh jobs by September 2025.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: India's real GDP growth for FY27 projected at 6.8–7.2%.

    Key Facts:

    • Real GDP growth for FY27 is projected at 6.8–7.2%
    • Industrial sector projected to grow 6.2% in FY26
    • H1 industrial sector growth at 7.0%
    • PLI schemes attracted over â‚ą2 lakh crore investment
    • PLI schemes generated â‚ą18.7 lakh crore incremental output
    • PLI schemes created 12.6 lakh jobs by September 2025
  • 2026-01-29 [Economy] — Economic Survey 2026: India's Economy Shows Resilience
    The Economic Survey 2025-26, released on January 29, 2026, highlights India's strong macroeconomic resilience with a projected real GDP growth of 7.4% for FY26 and GVA at 7.3%. The survey points to low inflation, improved fiscal consolidation, and a strong banking and external sector despite global uncertainties, signaling India's transition towards becoming a systemically indispensable global power.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: Economic Survey 2025-26 projects India's real GDP growth at 7.4% for FY26.

    Key Facts:

    • Tabled in Parliament on January 29, 2026
    • Prepared by Department of Economic Affairs, Ministry of Finance
    • Under guidance of the Chief Economic Adviser (CEA)
    • Real GDP growth for FY26 is estimated at 7.4%
    • GVA growth is estimated at 7.3% for FY26
    • Potential growth rate is assessed at around 7%
    • FY27 real GDP growth is projected between 6.8–7.2%
    • CPI inflation averaged 1.7% for April-December 2025
    • Foreign Exchange reserves increased to $701.4 billion as of January 16, 2026
    • India's innovation performance improved to 38th rank in Global Innovation Index in 2025 from 66th in 2019
  • 2025-12-31 [Economy] — India's 2025 Economic Reforms
    Economic reforms in 2025 reflect a maturing phase of India's governance, where the emphasis shifted decisively from “expanding regulatory frameworks” to “delivering measurable outcomes”. The Union Budget 2025-26 exempted the annual incomes up to ₹12 lakh from income tax under the new regime, with the effective exemption rising to ₹12.75 lakh for salaried taxpayers on account of the standard deduction. The Government announced a comprehensive overhaul of the Income-tax Act, 1961, resulting in the New Income Tax Act, 2025.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: India's 2025 economic reforms focus on delivering measurable outcomes.

    Key Facts:

    • The Union Budget 2025-26 exempted the annual incomes up to â‚ą12 lakh from income tax under the new regime.
    • Effective exemption rising to â‚ą12.75 lakh for salaried taxpayers on account of the standard deduction.
    • The Government announced a comprehensive overhaul of the Income-tax Act, 1961, resulting in the New Income Tax Act, 2025.
    • Income up to â‚ą12 lakh exempt in new regime; effective exemption â‚ą12.75 lakh for salaried individuals (incl. standard deduction).
    • Comprehensive rewrite of 1961 Act with textual simplification and removal of obsolete clauses.
    • Unified “Tax Year” replaces AY/PY.
    • Digital-first enforcement, faceless administration, unified TDS framework.
  • 2025-11-01 [Economy] — India's $30 Trillion Economy Goal
    The Minister of Commerce and Industry stated that India is projected to become a $30 trillion economy in 20-25 years, noting India's nominal GDP has registered a CAGR of 11.9% since the financial year 2000. If India's growth and rupee depreciation continue at the same rates, the GDP will cross $30 trillion in 2048.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: India projected to become a $30 trillion economy in 20-25 years.

    Key Facts:

    • India's nominal GDP has registered a CAGR (compounded annual growth rate) of 11.9% since the financial year 2000.
    • The Indian rupee has depreciated against the dollar at a CAGR of 2.7% since 2000.
    • GDP projection: $30 trillion
    • Target year: 2050
    • $30 trillion economy
    • Minister of Commerce and Industry
    • CAGR of 11.9% since FY2000
    • Projected by 2048
  • 2025-03-22 [Economy] — India Progressing Towards $5 Trillion Economy
    According to the Finance Ministry, India is progressing towards becoming a $5 trillion economy by 2027-28.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: India aims to become a $5 trillion economy by 2027-28.

    Key Facts:

    • India is progressing toward a $5 trillion economy by 2027-28, as per the Finance Ministry

Medium-Term Economic Outlook (FY27 and 2026)

Focus: Forward-looking assessments and projections for India's economy specifically focusing on the 2026-2027 period (FY27), distinct from the immediate FY25/26 cycle.

UPSC Value: Provides insight into the long-term structural growth expectations for India, highlighting the anticipated recovery and sustained growth beyond the immediate fiscal year.

5 news items in this theme:

  • 2026-01-24 [Economy] — World Bank projects slower growth for India in 2026
    The World Bank expects growth in South Asia to slow to 6.2 percent in 2026, mainly reflecting the impact of increased tariffs on India. However, it anticipates a recovery to 6.5 percent in 2027, supported by strong growth in services. The Bank estimates India's growth to increase to 7.2 percent in fiscal year 2025/26, driven by robust domestic demand and strong private consumption.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: World Bank projects slower growth for India in 2026 due to tariffs.

    Key Facts:

    • South Asia growth forecast for 2026: 6.2 percent
    • India growth forecast for FY2025/26: 7.2 percent
    • Factors driving growth: Domestic demand, private consumption
    • Impact: Increased tariffs
  • 2026-01-24 [Economy] — India's Economic Outlook Before Budget 2026
    India's economy is heading into the Union Budget 2026 with an expected GDP growth of 8.0% in H1 FY26 and inflation below the RBI's target. Despite a widening trade deficit, foreign exchange reserves remain strong at $687.19 billion as of January 9, 2026. CPI inflation rose to 1.33% in December 2025, remaining below the RBI's 4% target, with the central bank projecting average inflation at 2.0% for FY 2025-26.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: India's economy expects 8% GDP growth in H1 FY26, inflation below RBI target.

    Key Facts:

    • GDP growth is expected at 8.0% in H1 FY26.
    • Foreign exchange reserves rose to $687.19 billion in the week ended January 9, 2026.
    • CPI inflation rose to 1.33% in December 2025.
    • The RBI projects average inflation at 2.0% for FY 2025-26.
    • Growth is projected at 7.4% for FY26.
    • The Indian economy is expected to expand at 6.8-7.2% in FY27.
    • India's exports reached record $825.3 billion in FY25.
    • As of November 2025, India's fiscal deficit stood at 62.3% of the Budget Estimates.
    • The government aims to attain a fiscal deficit target of 4.4% of GDP by FY26.
  • 2026-01-10 [Economy] — Economic Survey Projects GDP Growth of 6.8-7.2% in FY27
    The Economic Survey 2025-26 projects that the Indian economy will grow at 6.8%-7.2% in FY27, supported by strong macro fundamentals and regulatory reforms. The survey anticipates steady growth amid global uncertainty, emphasizing the need for caution rather than pessimism. Despite heightened tariffs imposed by the United States, merchandise exports grew by 2.4% (April–December 2025), while services exports increased by 6.5%.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: Economic Survey projects GDP growth of 6.8-7.2% in FY27.

    Key Facts:

    • UN projects India's GDP growth to 6.6% in 2026
    • GDP growth was 7.4 percent in 2025
    • Slowdown largely due to US tariffs on India's exports
    • Real GDP growth in FY27 is expected to be between 6.8% and 7.2%.
    • Total exports reached a record $825.3 billion in FY25.
    • Merchandise exports grew by 2.4% (April–December 2025).
    • Services exports increased by 6.5% (April–December 2025).
  • 2026-01-06 [Economy] — India projects as fastest-growing G20 economy in 2026
    India is projected to remain the fastest-growing economy among G20 nations in 2026, with an expected growth rate of 6.4%, driven by resilient banking, strong balance sheets, and improved asset quality. India's potential growth rate is revised upwards to a range of 6.8–7.2% for the fiscal year 2027.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: India projected as fastest-growing G20 economy in 2026.

    Key Facts:

    • Fastest-growing economy: among G20 nations in 2026
    • Growth rate: 6.4%
    • Drivers: resilient banking, strong balance sheets, improved asset quality
    • Potential growth rate for FY27: 6.8–7.2%
    • 2026 Projected Real GDP (% Change) : 6.4
    • Date of Membership: December 27, 1945
    • Special Drawing Rights (SDR): 13711.66 million
  • 2025-12-17 [Economy] — India's GDP Growth Forecast
    Axis Bank projects India will remain the fastest-growing large economy in 2026-27, with a GDP growth of 7.5%. The RBI expects growth to moderate to 6.7% in the fiscal first quarter starting next April, down from the recent quarter's strong 8.2%. The RBI Governor noted that underlying inflation pressures are lower, with average headline inflation for a quarter at 1.7% in Q2:2025-26, breaching the lower tolerance threshold (2%) of the inflation target (4%).
    More details

    UPSC Angle: Axis Bank projects India's GDP growth at 7.5% in 2026-27.

    Key Facts:

    • Axis Bank projects 7.5% GDP growth for India in FY27
    • RBI expects 6.7% growth in fiscal Q1 starting next April
    • RBI Governor noted average headline inflation for a quarter at 1.7% in Q2:2025-26

India's Macroeconomic Performance Indicators (2025)

Focus: A collection of key statistical releases and forecasts—including GST, CPI, IIP, Forex, and energy demand—that gauge India's economic health in 2025.

UPSC Value: Provides a comprehensive dashboard of India's fiscal and monetary health, highlighting industrial growth, inflation control, and external sector stability.

5 news items in this theme:

  • 2025-12-24 [Economy] — CPI Inflation Increase in December 2025
    India's consumer price inflation rose to 1.33% in December 2025, up from 0.71% in November, but still below market expectations of 1.5%. Despite this increase, inflation remained below the RBI's tolerance band of 2-6%.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: CPI inflation rose to 1.33% in December 2025.

    Key Facts:

    • December 2025
    • CPI inflation rate: 1.33%
    • November CPI inflation: 0.71%
    • RBI tolerance band: 2-6%
  • 2025-12-24 [Economy] — India's IIP reaches over 2-year high in December 2025
    The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) rose by 7.8% in December 2025, reaching its highest level in over two years, according to data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI). This growth was driven by surges in manufacturing (8.1%), mining (6.8%), and electricity (6.3%).
    More details

    UPSC Angle: India's IIP rose by 7.8% in December 2025.

    Key Facts:

    • IIP growth rate for December 2025 was 7.8%.
    • Manufacturing sector grew by 8.1%.
    • Mining sector grew by 6.8%.
    • Electricity sector grew by 6.3%.
    • The Quick Estimates of IIP stands at 170.3 against 158.0 in December 2024.
  • 2025-09-02 [Economy] — GST Collection in August 2025
    India's GST collection in August 2025 reached â‚ą1.86 trillion, marking a 6.5% year-on-year growth despite seasonal and global trade challenges. A 20% drop in refunds and a moderating growth rate have intensified calls for GST reform.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: GST collection in August 2025 reached â‚ą1.86 trillion.

    Key Facts:

    • GST collection in August 2025: â‚ą1.86 trillion
    • Year-on-year growth: 6.5%
    • Drop in refunds: 20%
  • 2025-08-30 [Economy] — Global Electricity Demand Surge
    China and India will account for 60% of global electricity demand growth over 2025–26, with India's demand forecast to rise by 4% in 2025 and 6.6% in 2026.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: China and India will account for 60% of global electricity demand.

    Key Facts:

    • China and India: 60% of global electricity demand growth (2025-26)
    • India's electricity demand growth: 4% (2025), 6.6% (2026)
  • 2025-05-24 [Economy] — RBI Sells Nearly $400 Billion in FY25
    The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) sold a record $398.71 billion worth of foreign currency on a gross basis in FY2024-25. This marks the highest-ever intervention by the central bank, reflecting its aggressive stance amid geopolitical uncertainty and the fear of global economic disruption.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: Not exam-relevant

    Key Facts:

    • RBI sold a record $398.71 billion worth of foreign currency on a gross basis in FY2024-25.

Global Economic and Risk Outlooks (2025-2026)

Focus: Major annual reports from international organizations (IMF, WEF) forecasting global economic trends and risks for the 2025-2026 horizon.

UPSC Value: Useful for understanding the consensus on global macroeconomic headwinds, including geopolitical fragmentation and technological disruption.

4 news items in this theme:

  • 2026-01-16 [Economy] — Global Risks Report 2026 Highlights Geoeconomic Confrontation
    The World Economic Forum's Global Risks Report 2026 identifies geoeconomic confrontation as the most significant global risk in the near term, affecting economies, societies, and the environment. For India, major risks include cyber insecurity, wealth and income inequality, and insufficient public services.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: WEF's Global Risks Report 2026 identifies geoeconomic confrontation as a risk.

    Key Facts:

    • Geo-economic confrontation ranks as the top risk in the 2-year horizon
    • Extreme weather events fell from 2nd place (2025 report) to 4th place in the short-term risk ranking
    • Pollution drops from 6th to 9th place in the 2-year horizon
    • Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse remain among the top risks in the 10-year horizon
    • Global Risks Report 2026 identifies geoeconomic confrontation as the top global risk
    • Report released by the World Economic Forum (WEF)
    • Major risks for India include cyber insecurity
    • Major risks for India include wealth and income inequality
    • Major risks for India include insufficient public services and social protections
  • 2026-01-04 [Economy] — IMF's Global Economic Outlook 2026
    The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its 'Annual Global Economic Outlook 2026', projecting global growth to stabilize but facing headwinds from geopolitical fragmentation and the impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on labor markets. The IMF urged policymakers to invest in education and social safety nets to mitigate risks associated with AI-driven economic shifts.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: IMF's Global Economic Outlook 2026 projects global growth stabilization.

    Key Facts:

    • Report: Annual Global Economic Outlook 2026
    • Released by: International Monetary Fund (IMF)
    • Focus: Global economic trajectory, geopolitical fragmentation, impact of AI
  • 2025-10-14 [Economy] — World Economic Outlook, October 2025: Global Economy in Flux, Prospects Remain Dim
    Global growth is projected to slow from 3.3 percent in 2024 to 3.2 percent in 2025 and 3.1 percent in 2026, with advanced economies growing around 1.5 percent and emerging market and developing economies just above 4 percent. Inflation is projected to continue to decline globally, though with variation across countries.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: Global growth projected to slow to 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026.

    Key Facts:

    • Global growth projection for 2024: 3.3%.
    • Global growth projection for 2025: 3.2%.
    • Global growth projection for 2026: 3.1%.
    • Advanced economies growth projection: around 1.5%.
    • Emerging market and developing economies growth projection: just above 4%.
    • Global growth
    • 3.3 percent in 2024
    • 3.2 percent in 2025
    • 3.1 percent in 2026
    • advanced economies growing around 1.5 percent
    • emerging market and developing economies just above 4 percent
  • 2025-03-15 [International Relations] — Global Risks Report 2025: Key Findings
    The Global Risks Report 2025, released by the World Economic Forum, analyzes global risks across three time horizons, highlighting that the global outlook is becoming increasingly divided across geopolitical, environmental, social, economic, and technological domains. The report identifies state-based conflicts as major risks for 2025, with rapid technological advancements contributing to the spread of misinformation.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: Global Risks Report 2025 highlights increasing geopolitical divisions.

    Key Facts:

    • Global Risks Report 2025
    • World Economic Forum
    • Geopolitical risks
    • Environmental risks
    • Social risks
    • Economic risks
    • Technological risks
    • State-based conflicts

World Bank's Multi-Sectoral Assessment of India (2025-2026)

Focus: A series of distinct World Bank reports released within a 12-month window analyzing specific verticals of the Indian economy (Growth, Poverty, Finance, and High-Income transition).

UPSC Value: Studying these reports together provides a comprehensive view of the multilateral assessment of India's developmental gaps and policy recommendations.

4 news items in this theme:

  • 2026-01-08 [Economy] — World Bank Report Highlights Reforms Needed for India to Achieve High-Income Status
    A World Bank report suggests India needs ambitious reforms to achieve high-income status within a generation, requiring faster and inclusive growth, increased investment, greater labor force participation, and accelerated productivity growth. The report emphasizes strengthening financial sector regulations and simplifying FDI policies.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: World Bank report suggests reforms needed for India to achieve high-income status.

    Key Facts:

    • India needs to increase total investment from the current 33.5% of GDP to 40% by 2035
    • Increase overall labor force participation from 56.4% to above 65%
    • Achieve an average growth rate of 7.8% in real terms over the next two decades
  • 2025-11-08 [Economy] — World Bank urges India to accelerate financial reforms
    The World Bank's Financial Sector Assessment (FSA) report recommends that India give further impetus to financial sector reforms and boost private capital mobilization to become a USD 30-trillion economy by 2047. The report acknowledges improvements in India's financial system since 2017, including increased resilience and inclusiveness due to reforms. The World Bank suggests further boosting account usage, especially for women, and facilitating access to wider range of financial products for individuals and MSMEs.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: World Bank urges India to accelerate financial reforms.

    Key Facts:

    • India needs to boost private capital mobilization to become a USD 30-trillion economy by 2047.
    • The World Bank's Financial Sector Assessment (FSA) report acknowledged that India's digital public infrastructure has improved access to financial services.
    • India's financial system has become more resilient, diversified, and inclusive since the last FSAP in 2017.
  • 2025-04-28 [Economy] — World Bank Acknowledges India's Poverty Reduction
    The World Bank's Spring 2025 Poverty and Equity Brief recognizes India's success in lifting 171 million people out of extreme poverty between 2011-12 and 2022-23. Extreme poverty, defined as living under $2.15/day, declined from 16.2% to 2.3%, while lower-middle-income poverty (under $3.65/day) fell from 61.8% to 28.1%, lifting 378 million people. Multidimensional poverty also saw a significant decrease from 53.8% (2005-06) to 15.5% (2022-23).
    More details

    UPSC Angle: World Bank acknowledges India's poverty reduction: 171 million lifted out.

    Key Facts:

    • Extreme poverty declined from 16.2% (2011-12) to 2.3% (2022-23)
    • 171 million people lifted out of extreme poverty between 2011-12 and 2022-23
    • Lower-middle-income poverty fell from 61.8% to 28.1%
    • 378 million people lifted out of lower-middle-income poverty
    • Multidimensional poverty declined from 53.8% (2005-06) to 15.5% (2022-23)
    • Gini index improved from 28.8 to 25.5
    • Urban unemployment dropped to 6.6%, the lowest since 2017-18
    • Rural and urban poverty gap closed from 7.7% to 1.7%
    • 11 crore households received LPG under Ujjwala Yojana
    • World Bank's Poverty and Equity Brief 2025
    • Extreme poverty (under $2.15/day): 2.3% in 2022-23
    • Lower-middle-income poverty (under $3.65/day): 28.1% in 2022-23
    • 378 million people lifted out of poverty
  • 2025-03-01 [Economy] — World Bank on India's Development
    The World Bank's India Country Economic Memorandum (2025) states that India needs an average growth rate of 7.8% until 2047 to achieve high-income status. The World Bank recommends increasing investment from 33.5% to 40% of GDP by 2035 through private and public sector participation, improving financial sector regulations, easing FDI restrictions, boosting MSME credit access, and streamlining business regulations.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: World Bank: India needs 7.8% growth until 2047 for high-income status.

    Key Facts:

    • India needs 7.8% average growth until 2047 for high-income status
    • Increase investment from 33.5% to 40% of GDP by 2035
    • Improve financial sector regulations
    • Ease FDI restrictions
    • Boost MSME credit access
    • Streamline business regulations

Multi-Sectoral Economic Performance Indicators in 2025

Focus: A collection of reports tracking divergent growth metrics across the Indian economy, including FMCG demand, GST collections, services sector activity, and rural consumption levels during 2025.

UPSC Value: Understanding these varied indicators is essential for analyzing the uneven nature of economic recovery and the effectiveness of fiscal policies on domestic demand.

4 news items in this theme:

  • 2025-11-16 [Economy] — FMCG sector sees demand revival
    The FMCG sector is experiencing a revival in demand, with sales volume increasing by 4.7% in Q2 2025 due to stable commodity prices and tax benefits.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: FMCG sector sees demand revival with sales volume increasing.

    Key Facts:

    • FMCG sales volume increase: 4.7%
    • Period: Q2 2025
    • Drivers: Stable commodity prices and tax benefits
  • 2025-09-04 [Economy] — India's Services Sector PMI Hits 15-Year High
    India's services sector surged to a 15-year high in August 2025, with the HSBC India Services PMI rising to 62.9, driven by strong domestic and international demand. This also triggered the fastest rise in prices in over a decade, as companies passed on rising input costs to customers. Output price inflation hit its highest level since July 2012, while export orders saw their strongest growth in 14 months.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: India's Services Sector PMI Hits 15-Year High.

    Key Facts:

    • HSBC India Services PMI: 62.9 in August 2025
    • Growth driver: Strong domestic and international demand
    • Output price inflation: Highest since July 2012
    • Export orders: Strongest growth in 14 months
  • 2025-07-16 [Economy] — Strained Rural Consumption and Demand
    Rural India is showing signs of financial stress, indicated by a decline in two-wheeler sales by 7.6% in April-May 2025 and fluctuating NREGA work demand. The central government released ₹73,750 crore for NREGA in Q1 of 2025–26, signaling increased demand for wage support despite good rains.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: Rural India shows signs of financial stress.

    Key Facts:

    • Two-wheeler sales declined by 7.6% in April–May 2025
    • NREGA work demand rose 1.1% in May and 3.7% in June
    • Central government released â‚ą73,750 crore for NREGA in Q1 of 2025–26
  • 2025-07-06 [Economy] — GST revenue rises in July 2025
    India's GST revenue rose to Rs. 1.96 lakh crore in July 2025, a 7.5% year-on-year increase from Rs. 1.82 lakh crore in July 2024, driven by growth in domestic transactions and import revenues. Net GST collections (after refunds) stood at Rs. 1.69 lakh crore, a 1.7% rise from the same month last year.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: GST revenue rises in July 2025, showing economic growth.

    Key Facts:

    • GST revenue
    • Rs. 1.96 lakh crore
    • July 2025
    • 7.5% increase
    • Net GST collections
    • Rs. 1.69 lakh crore

Evolution of India's Growth Potential and GDP Forecasts (2025-2026)

Focus: Institutional assessments and official revisions of India's GDP growth targets and long-term potential growth rate across a specific fiscal period.

UPSC Value: Understanding the divergence between private institutional forecasts, central bank reports, and official government assessments regarding India's structural growth capacity is critical for economic policy analysis.

3 news items in this theme:

  • 2026-01-31 [Economy] — Potential Growth Rate Reassessed
    The latest Economic Survey has reassessed India's long-term economic prospects and raised the country's potential growth rate from 6.5% to 7%. Research by the Reserve Bank of India shows that India's potential growth rate has declined over time.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: Economic Survey reassesses India's potential growth rate from 6.5% to 7%.

    Key Facts:

    • The latest Economic Survey has reassessed India's long-term economic prospects and raised the country's potential growth rate from 6.5% to 7%.
    • Research by the Reserve Bank of India shows that India's potential growth rate has declined over time.
  • 2025-07-01 [Economy] — RBI Report: Indian economy a key driver of global growth
    According to a recent RBI report, the Indian economy continues to be a significant driver of global economic expansion. This highlights India's increasing importance in the international economic landscape and its potential to influence global trends.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: RBI report: Indian economy a key driver of global growth.

    Key Facts:

    • Indian economy
    • key driver
    • global growth
    • RBI report
  • 2025-05-22 [Economy] — India's Economic Outlook: GDP Growth, Trade, and Tariffs
    Reports suggest India's economy is showing resilience despite global trade tensions. Moody's indicates tariffs may not trouble India much due to its low dependence on exports, while Morgan Stanley upgraded India's GDP growth forecasts, expecting domestic demand to remain the primary engine for growth. Deloitte forecasts India's GDP to grow between 6.5% and 6.7% in FY2026, driven by domestic demand, fiscal support, and stable inflation.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: Not exam-relevant

    Key Facts:

    • Morgan Stanley upgraded India's GDP growth forecasts to 6.2% in the current fiscal year and 6.5% in FY26
    • Moody's says India's low dependence on exports will anchor the economy
    • Deloitte forecasts India's GDP to grow between 6.5% and 6.7% in FY2026

Evolution of India's Macro-Fiscal Strategy for Long-Term Growth

Focus: Items detailing the shift from rigid fiscal deficit targets and privatization toward state-led capital expenditure and intellectual capital investment.

UPSC Value: Essential for analyzing the changing role of the state in the Indian economy and the move toward 'Viksit Bharat 2047' through structural policy adjustments.

3 news items in this theme:

  • 2026-01-15 [Economy] — Budget 2026: Focus on Real Economy
    Experts suggest that Budget 2026 may shift its focus towards the 'Real Economy,' explicitly recognizing intellectual investment as an engine of productivity. There is a need to move beyond simple incentives and de-risk long-term intellectual capital.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: Budget 2026 may focus on the 'Real Economy'.

    Key Facts:

    • Budget 2026
    • Real Economy
    • Intellectual investment
    • Productivity
  • 2025-06-25 [Economy] — India's PSU Strategy Shift
    The Indian government's approach to Public Sector Undertakings (PSUs) has changed significantly, shifting from privatisation hopes to using PSUs to drive capital expenditure and economic growth. This shift has had wide-ranging implications for disinvestment, revenue generation, and fiscal planning.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: India's PSU strategy shifts to driving capital expenditure and economic growth.

    Key Facts:

    • Shift in strategy: From privatisation to using PSUs for capital expenditure and economic growth
    • Implications: Affects disinvestment, revenue generation, and fiscal planning
  • 2025-03-11 [Economy] — India Needs Flexible Deficit Target
    According to INSIGHTS IAS, India needs to keep its deficit target flexible, and India's Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) Act enforces a 3% fiscal deficit limit to ensure economic stability. However, this cap can hamper growth-oriented spending, thus a flexible fiscal policy is crucial to ensure long-term investments without compromising fiscal prudence, given India's ambition to become a developed economy by 2047.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: FRBM Act enforces a 3% fiscal deficit limit.

    Key Facts:

    • FRBM Act enforces a 3% fiscal deficit limit
    • India aims to become a developed economy by 2047

India's FY26 Economic Performance and FY27 Budgetary Outlook

Focus: Analysis of India's macroeconomic health (GDP, inflation, and employment) at the end of 2025 and its role in shaping the nominal growth targets for the FY27 Union Budget.

UPSC Value: Crucial for understanding the transition from high-frequency economic indicators to fiscal policy formulation and the distinction between real and nominal GDP growth.

3 news items in this theme:

  • 2026-01-10 [Economy] — India May Peg Nominal Growth for FY27 at 10%
    India's upcoming budget may target a nominal GDP growth rate of around 10%, an increase from the estimated 8% in FY26. The government anticipates sustained economic growth momentum, with inflation expected to rise due to unfavorable base effects. Nominal GDP, measured at current market prices, is a key element for fiscal planning, influencing indicators like fiscal deficit and debt-to-GDP ratio.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: India may peg nominal growth for FY27 at 10%.

    Key Facts:

    • Nominal GDP growth for FY27 may be pegged at 10%
    • Estimated nominal growth for FY26 is 8%
    • Nominal growth was 9.8% in 2024-25
    • Real GDP expanded 6.5% in 2024-25
    • Wholesale price inflation averaged -0.08% between April and November this year
    • Wholesale price inflation was 2.19% a year before
    • RBI cut its inflation forecast for this fiscal to 2% from 2.6% last month
  • 2025-12-31 [Economy] — India set to close 2025 with strong growth, low inflation, improving jobs outlook
    India is on course to conclude 2025 as one of the fastest-growing economies, maintaining strong growth with low inflation and an improving jobs outlook.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: Not exam-relevant

  • 2025-12-17 [Economy] — India's Economic Growth Cools Slightly in December
    India's economic expansion showed signs of a slight slowdown in December 2025, with growth in high-frequency activity indicators easing from the previous month. According to the Icra Business Activity Monitor, year-on-year growth in economic activity moderated to about 10.3 percent. Icra has pegged India's GDP growth at around 7.0 per cent in the third quarter of FY2025–26.
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    UPSC Angle: India's economic growth shows slight slowdown in December 2025.

    Key Facts:

    • Retail inflation: 1.33 percent in December 2025
    • Unemployment: 4.8 percent in December 2025
    • Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR): 56.1 percent in December 2025
    • Trade deficit: USD 6.92 billion in December 2025
    • Gross GST collection: Rs 1.75 lakh crore in December 2025
    • Year-on-year growth in economic activity moderated to about 10.3 percent in December 2025
    • Icra pegged India's GDP growth at around 7.0 per cent in the third quarter of FY2025–26

External Agency Economic Projections (Late 2025)

Focus: A collection of reports from international bodies (EY, Moody's, UNDESA) released in late 2025 forecasting India's medium-to-long-term growth trajectory.

UPSC Value: Provides a comparative view of how different global institutions assess India's economic resilience against global headwinds.

3 news items in this theme:

  • 2025-12-30 [Economy] — India's Projected Economic Growth
    According to a report by Ernst & Young (EY), India is projected to become a $26 trillion economy by 2047–48, with per capita income exceeding $15,000, maintaining an average growth rate of approximately 6% per annum. India's real GDP grew 8.2% in Q2 FY 2025-26, driven by strong domestic demand amidst global uncertainties, and services exports have grown by 14% over the past two decades.
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    UPSC Angle: India projected to be a $26 trillion economy by 2047-48.

    Key Facts:

    • India is projected to become a $26 trillion economy by 2047-48.
    • Per capita income is expected to exceed $15,000.
    • India is expected to overtake Germany and Japan to become the world's third largest economy after China and the United States by 2030.
    • India projected to become a $26 trillion economy by 2047–48
    • Per capita income exceeding $15,000 by 2047-48
    • Average growth rate of ~6% per annum
    • India's real GDP grew 8.2% in Q2 FY 2025-26
    • Services exports have grown by 14% over the past two decades
    • Services exports stood at $254.5 billion in 2021–22
  • 2025-12-06 [Economy] — India to grow at 7.2% in 2025-26
    India's economy is projected to grow 7.2% in 2025-26, with consumption and public investment expected to “largely offset” the impact of the tariffs by the United States, the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA) said in a report. On a fiscal year basis, the report predicts that India will grow at 6.6% and 6.8% in 2026-27 and 2027-28, respectively. India's real effective exchange rate improved to 100.9 in 2025 as compared to 104.7 in 2024.
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    UPSC Angle: India's economy is projected to grow 7.2% in 2025-26.

    Key Facts:

    • India's economy is projected to grow 7.2% in 2025-26
    • India will grow at 6.6% and 6.8% in 2026-27 and 2027-28, respectively
    • India's real effective exchange rate improved to 100.9 in 2025 as compared to 104.7 in 2024
  • 2025-11-13 [Economy] — Moody's Forecasts India as Fastest-Growing Major Economy
    Moody's projects India to be the fastest-growing major economy with a strong 6.5% growth trajectory, even amidst international tariff pressures. This positive economic outlook comes as the nation grapples with national security challenges.
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    UPSC Angle: Moody's forecasts India as fastest-growing major economy at 6.5%.

    Key Facts:

    • Moody's projects a 6.5% growth trajectory for the Indian economy
    • Forecast made amidst international tariff pressures

India's 2025 Macroeconomic Trajectory and Capital Strategy

Focus: Tracking the evolution of India's 2025 growth forecasts alongside specific government measures to manage capital inflows and deepen financial markets.

UPSC Value: Illustrates the interplay between international economic assessments (UNCTAD/IMF) and domestic policy responses regarding foreign investment and fiscal stability.

3 news items in this theme:

  • 2025-12-17 [Economy] — Gita Gopinath on India's Economic Growth
    Former IMF Deputy Gita Gopinath indicated India's growth could be revised upwards to 7% at the India Economic Conclave in New Delhi. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman stated India is increasingly looking inward due to global trade barriers and has the strength to meet its own challenges. The government is focused on financial inclusion, nurturing domestic talent, reducing debt to GDP, and deepening bond markets alongside equities.
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    UPSC Angle: Gita Gopinath indicated India's growth could be revised upwards to 7%.

    Key Facts:

    • Gita Gopinath: India's growth could be revised upwards to 7%
    • Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman: India is increasingly looking inward due to global trade barriers
    • Government focus: financial inclusion, nurturing domestic talent, reducing debt to GDP, and deepening bond markets
  • 2025-11-01 [Economy] — India May Take Steps to Boost Foreign Fund Inflows
    Commerce Minister is reportedly taking steps to enhance foreign fund inflows. This move aims to improve the investment climate and attract more foreign capital into India.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: Not exam-relevant

    Key Facts:

    • Commerce Minister to take steps to boost foreign fund inflows
  • 2025-04-18 [Economy] — UNCTAD Projects Indian Economy to Grow by 6.5% in CY25
    The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) projects that the Indian economy will grow at 6.5% in Calendar Year (CY25), compared to an estimated 6.9% growth rate in CY24. This growth projection is mainly driven by strong public spending and continuing monetary system easing.
    More details

    UPSC Angle: UNCTAD projects Indian economy to grow by 6.5% in CY25.

    Key Facts:

    • Indian economy growth projection for CY25: 6.5%
    • Indian economy growth projection for CY24: 6.9%
    • Report by: UNCTAD
    • Report Title: 'Trade and Development Foresights 2025- Under Pressure: Uncertainty Reshapes Global Economic Prospects'

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