India's Strategic Trade & Economic Resilience: UPSC Current Affairs Analysis & Study Strategy

In-Depth Analysis

The Big Picture

India's trade policy has transitioned from 'Passive Integration' to 'Strategic Recalibration' (2025-26). This shift is characterized by a dual-track strategy: a defensive posture involving the active renegotiation of the ASEAN-India Trade in Goods Agreement (AITIGA) to curb a 17% structural deficit, and an offensive push in high-value niches—specifically organic agri-foods and processed seafood—to capitalize on the 'China Plus One' sentiment and India's emerging role as a 'Global Food Supplier.'

Cross-Theme Insight

The 2025-26 strategy integrates fiscal policy with trade diplomacy. For instance, the reduction of GST on seafood from 12% to 5% is not merely a domestic tax change but a strategic buffer against rising US tariffs and EU carbon taxes (CBAM). This 'Sectoral Diplomacy' ensures that strategic autonomy is maintained not just through non-alignment, but through deep, standard-driven integration in specific sectors like spices (via Codex standards) and organic exports (via APEDA's Bharati Initiative), making India an indispensable node in global value chains despite regional instabilities like those in Bangladesh.

Textbook vs Reality Gap

Traditional textbooks (e.g., Vivek Singh, p. 394-395) frame RCEP withdrawal (2019) as a defensive 'avoidance' of China. However, 2025 data shows the deficit with China nearing $100 billion regardless, forcing a shift in the current curriculum from 'avoidance' to 'active renegotiation' (AITIGA review) and 'Traceability-led exports.' While NCERTs focus on the 'Look/Act East' diplomatic evolution, the 2026 reality is 'Recalibrate East'—prioritizing non-tariff barrier management over simple tariff reductions.

How This Theme Is Evolving

The focus has moved from volume-based exports to 'Standard-Led Growth.' India's role as the 'Country of the Year' at BIOFACH 2026 and its leadership in the Codex Committee on Spices (CCSCH-8) signify a move toward setting global benchmarks rather than just following them. The trajectory is: Market Access (2010s) → Self-Reliance (2020) → Standard-Setting and Traceability (2025-2026).

UPSC Exam Intelligence

Previous Year Question Pattern

UPSC has transitioned from factual data (IAS 2017: largest trading partner) to institutional logic and international standards. Recent questions highlight the role of APEDA in NPOP (IAS 2018), the nature of FTAs like RCEP (CDS 2024), and WTO dispute safety standards (IAS 2010). Expect future questions to link sectoral policies (Fisheries/Spices) with international trade law.

Probable Prelims Angles

• Codex Committee on Spices (CCSCH-8) new standards for Vanilla, Coriander, and Large Cardamom.
• APEDA’s 'Bharati Initiative' for agri-food startups and NPOP secretariat roles.
• National Framework on Traceability in Fisheries & Aquaculture (launched for 2025-26 exports).
• BIOFACH 2026: India’s designation as 'Country of the Year' in Nuremberg.
• AITIGA review timeline and the specific 17% trade deficit trigger with ASEAN.
• GST reduction (12% to 5%) on seafood as a trade-resilience measure.

Mains Answer Framework

• India's contemporary trade policy is defined by a transition from 'Passive Globalization' to 'Strategic Recalibration,' balancing a $100 billion deficit with China against an offensive push in high-value organic and seafood exports.
• Defensive Strategy: Renegotiating AITIGA and managing regional shocks (Bangladesh crisis).. Offensive Strategy: Leveraging 'China Plus One' through standard-setting (Codex) and traceability.. Institutional Strength: The role of APEDA and MPEDA in diversifying export destinations (UAE, Georgia, EU).. Fiscal-Trade Synergy: Using GST interventions and PLI schemes to counter external tariff barriers (CBAM).
• To achieve a $5 trillion economy, India must move beyond being a 'market' to becoming a 'standard-setter,' ensuring economic resilience through sectoral depth and multi-aligned trade partnerships.

Preparation Strategy

Key Connections

Sub-Themes and News Coverage (9 themes, 40 news items)

Macro-Economic Strategy & Global Positioning

Focus: Items analyzing India's broader economic resilience, manufacturing challenges (PLI), and strategic foreign policy positioning (Multialignment/Global South).

UPSC Value: Provides the macro-economic and diplomatic context (GS-2 & GS-3) within which specific sectoral policies operate.

7 news items in this theme:

• 2026-02-14 [International Relations] — India's Foreign Policy in a Fragmented Global Order
  Prime Minister Modi acknowledged a structural shift from rules-based multilateralism to power-driven geopolitics, emphasizing the need for a new national identity and approach to international relations. India's current foreign policy is characterized by multi-alignment, economic diplomacy, and strategic flexibility.
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  UPSC Angle: Shift from rules-based multilateralism to power-driven geopolitics.

  Key Facts:

  • Shift from rules-based multilateralism
  • Power-driven geopolitics
  • Multi-alignment
  • Economic diplomacy
  • Strategic flexibility
  • Deepen defence and technology cooperation with the United States and Indo-Pacific partners.
  • Maintain defence and energy ties with Russia.
  • Manage competition and engagement with China through dialogue and deterrence.
  • Promote the “Neighbourhood First” policy and regional connectivity in South Asia.
• 2026-02-02 [Economy] — Challenges related to Manufacturing sector in India
  Despite a decade of Make in India, manufacturing share in GDP remains stagnant. PLI schemes have shown uneven outcomes, with limited domestic value addition in some sectors and global trade uncertainties and rising protectionism are affecting export-led manufacturing.
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  UPSC Angle: Challenges related to Manufacturing sector in India.

  Key Facts:

  • Stagnant manufacturing share in GDP despite a decade of Make in India
  • Uneven outcomes of PLI schemes, with limited domestic value addition in some sectors
  • Weak MSME integration into global and domestic value chains
  • Global trade uncertainties and rising protectionism affecting export-led manufacturing
• 2025-11-28 [International Relations] — Decline of G20 and India's Strategic Approach
  The G20's relevance is declining due to geopolitical tensions and disengagement from major powers, with countries like India, Brazil, and South Africa shaping the agenda, while India is strategically engaging in alternative platforms for security and cooperation. The absence of key leaders reduces its influence on global economic outcomes.
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  UPSC Angle: Decline of G20 and India's strategic approach.

  Key Facts:

  • G20
  • India
  • Brazil
  • Indonesia
  • South Africa
  • African Union
• 2025-10-16 [Economy] — India's role in shaping a new global economic order
  As the global economy undergoes a seismic transformation marked by great-power rivalry and state-driven capitalism, India has an opportunity to lead the Global South towards a fairer, more inclusive economic order. This involves recalibrating domestic policies, investing in strategic sectors, and fostering true non-alignment in foreign policy.
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  UPSC Angle: India's role in shaping a new global economic order.

  Key Facts:

  • The world economy is undergoing a seismic transformation, marked by the U.S.–China great-power rivalry, reshaped trade flows, and the rise of state-driven capitalism.
  • India can construct a New Economic Deal through debt-relief frameworks, institutional reforms, and South–South cooperation.
  • The government must play a commanding role in strategic sectors — energy, data, infrastructure, healthcare, and agriculture.
  • India's foreign policy must remain substantive, driven by consensus and independence rather than partisan interests.
• 2025-09-02 [International Relations] — India's Strategic Multialignment within SCO
  India strategically avoids rigid bloc politics by engaging in both Western-led (Quad, G20) and China-led (SCO, BRICS) platforms, reflecting its pursuit of strategic autonomy and multipolarity. Cooperation with Russia ensures India has an equal voice and counters Chinese dominance, with Russia pushing to revive the RIC (Russia–India–China) trilateral.
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  UPSC Angle: India's strategic multialignment within SCO.

  Key Facts:

  • India's strategic approach: Strategic Multialignment
  • Platforms involved: Quad, G20, SCO, BRICS
  • Russia's role: Bridge in India–China multilateral engagement
• 2025-06-28 [Economy] — India in a Goldilocks Situation: Finance Ministry Report
  According to the finance ministry, India's economy is in a "relative goldilocks situation," with stable macro aggregates and inflation. While external challenges like fluctuating oil prices pose risks, India remains cautiously optimistic, focusing on growth through strategic initiatives.
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  UPSC Angle: India's economy is in a 'relative goldilocks situation'.

  Key Facts:

  • India's economy is in a "relative goldilocks situation".
  • Macro aggregates and inflation are stable.
• 2025-06-23 [Economy] — India's Economic Resilience Amidst Global Troubles
  The Hindu Op-ed highlights policies to boost India's economic resilience, including strengthening public capital expenditure, export competitiveness, and accelerating FTA negotiations. It emphasizes expanding and streamlining Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes to attract foreign investment and boost domestic manufacturing, especially in high-potential sectors like semiconductors and IoT. The article also points out that Indian exporters face challenges like delays due to changing trade routes and uncertain tariff regimes.
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  UPSC Angle: Policies to boost India's economic resilience.

  Key Facts:

  • Policy suggestions: Strengthen public capital expenditure, export competitiveness, accelerate FTA negotiations
  • Focus sectors for PLI schemes: Semiconductors, IoT
  • Challenges for exporters: Trade route delays, uncertain tariff regimes
  • Scheme: PM Gati Shakti (for infrastructure development)

India's Global Agri-Food Trade Strategy (2025-2026)

Focus: A collection of major international trade events, export performance metrics, and trade policy challenges shaping India's position as a global food supplier.

UPSC Value: Useful for analyzing India's agricultural export ecosystem, the role of agencies like APEDA, and the impact of non-tariff barriers and trade fairs on economic diplomacy.

7 news items in this theme:

• 2026-02-10 [Agriculture] — India Named Country of the Year at BIOFACH 2026
  India has been designated Country of the Year at BIOFACH 2026, the world's largest organic products trade fair in Nuremberg, Germany, from February 10–13, 2026, with APEDA leading India's participation. India's pavilion features 67 exhibitors from over 20 states and union territories, showcasing organic rice, spices, oilseeds, herbs, value-added products and GI-tagged varieties.
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  UPSC Angle: India named Country of the Year at BIOFACH 2026.

  Key Facts:

  • India designated Country of the Year at BIOFACH 2026
  • BIOFACH 2026 held in Nuremberg, Germany from February 10–13, 2026
  • APEDA leading India's participation
  • India's pavilion spans over 1,074 sqm
  • 67 exhibitors from more than 20 states and union territories
  • Showcasing organic rice, spices, oilseeds, herbs, value-added products and GI-tagged varieties
• 2026-01-08 [Economy] — India–UAE Food Corridor and APEDA's Bharati Initiative
  Indusfood 2026, India's flagship global Food & Beverage (F&B) sourcing exhibition, is being held in Greater Noida, featuring the launch of the India–UAE Food Corridor by Abu Dhabi Food Hub and APEDA’s 'Bharati Initiative' for agri-food start-ups. The India-UAE Food Corridor aims to strengthen bilateral food trade, improve supply chain efficiency, and enhance food security, particularly for the UAE. APEDA’s Bharati Initiative focuses on agri-food start-ups, innovation, branding, and value-addition, aligning with Start-up India to boost non-traditional agricultural exports.
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  UPSC Angle: India–UAE Food Corridor launched at Indusfood 2026.

  Key Facts:

  • Indusfood 2026 held in Greater Noida
  • India–UAE Food Corridor launched by Abu Dhabi Food Hub
  • APEDA's 'Bharati Initiative' for agri-food start-ups
  • Bharati Initiative implemented by Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA)
• 2025-12-10 [International Relations] — India-US Rice Trade Dispute
  US President Donald Trump has alleged that India is "dumping" rice in the US and hurting American farmers, threatening tariffs. However, trade data indicates the US is not a major rice market for India, with the US taking only 1–2% of India's rice shipments.
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  UPSC Angle: Not exam-relevant

  Key Facts:

  • Basmati exports (2024–25): Total: 60.65 lakh tonnes. To the US: 2.74 lakh tonnes (≈ 4.5%)
  • Non-basmati exports: Total: 141.30 lakh tonnes. To the US: 0.61 lakh tonnes (≈ 0.4%)
  • US imports from India constituted 26.1% of the former's total rice imports in 2024
• 2025-10-21 [Agriculture] — Codex Standards Finalized for Spices
  In October 2025, the 8th session of the Codex Committee on Spices and Culinary Herbs (CCSCH-8) in Guwahati, Assam, finalized the Codex standards for Vanilla, Coriander (dried seeds), and Large Cardamom, bringing the total number of global spice standards developed by CCSCH to 19.
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  UPSC Angle: Codex standards finalized for Vanilla, Coriander, and Large Cardamom.

  Key Facts:

  • CCSCH-8 held in Guwahati, Assam in October 2025
  • Codex standards finalized for Vanilla, Coriander (dried seeds), and Large Cardamom
  • Total global spice standards developed by CCSCH: 19
• 2025-09-28 [Economy] — World Food India 2025 Concludes in New Delhi
  The four-day World Food India 2025 concluded on September 28, 2025, at Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi, marking a significant milestone for India's food processing sector. The event served as a platform for global leaders, policymakers, industry captains, and innovators to discuss the future of food and agriculture, witnessing strong participation, including over 10,500 B2B meetings and a footfall of over 95,000.
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  UPSC Angle: World Food India 2025 promoted India's food processing sector.

  Key Facts:

  • Event: World Food India 2025
  • Location: Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi
  • Duration: Four days
  • Conclusion Date: September 28, 2025
  • B2B Meetings: Over 10,500
  • Footfall: Over 95,000
  • Participants: Indian and international companies, Central Ministries, State governments, startups, and small-scale industries
  • Exhibiting Countries: France, Germany, Iran, Australia, South Korea, Denmark, Italy, Thailand, Indonesia, Taiwan, Belgium, Tanzania, Eritrea, Cyprus, Afghanistan, China, and the USA
  • International Participants: 150
  • Credit Linked Support: Over Rs 770 crore to around 26,000 beneficiaries
  • Micro Projects in food processing sector: worth over Rs 2,510 crore under Pradhan Mantri Formalisation of Micro Food Processing Enterprises (PMFME) Scheme.
• 2025-04-17 [Economy] — India's Rice Export Ban and Global Market
  India's 2023 export ban on non-basmati rice continues into 2025, removing nearly 40% of the global low-cost rice supply. El Niño conditions in 2024 delayed planting in Southeast Asia, raising concerns about reduced output in 2025. The FAO's Food Price Index showed rice prices peaked in mid-2024, remaining 25–30% higher than the 5-year average into Q1 2025.
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  UPSC Angle: India's rice export ban impacts global low-cost rice supply.

  Key Facts:

  • India's export ban on non-basmati rice (since 2023)
  • 40% reduction in global low-cost rice supply
  • El Niño impact on Southeast Asia planting
  • FAO Food Price Index: Rice prices 25-30% above 5-year average
• 2025-03-28 [Economy] — India 2nd largest tea exporter in 2024
  In 2024, India became the world's second-largest tea exporter, surpassing Sri Lanka, with exports of 255 million kilograms. Kenya remained the top tea exporter. India's tea exports grew by 10 percent compared to the 231.69 million kilograms recorded in 2023, generating ₹7,112 crore in revenue.
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  UPSC Angle: India became the world's second-largest tea exporter in 2024.

  Key Facts:

  • India's rank: Second largest tea exporter
  • Tea exports: 255 million kilograms
  • Growth in tea exports: 10 percent compared to 2023
  • Revenue generated: ₹7,112 crore
  • Key export destinations: UAE, Iraq, Iran, Russia, USA, and the UK

Geopolitical Trade Realignment

Focus: India's shifting trade landscape characterized by diversifying away from China, managing regional instability in Bangladesh, and seeking new Western partnerships.

UPSC Value: Essential for understanding how geopolitical shifts (China's decline, Bangladesh's turmoil) directly impact India's trade strategy and export opportunities.

6 news items in this theme:

• 2026-01-26 [Economy] — India's Stance on Cotton at WTO
  India has called for a balanced outcome on cotton at the World Trade Organization (WTO), addressing domestic support, market access, and development assistance. India already offers duty-free access for cotton imports from least-developed countries.
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  UPSC Angle: India's stance on cotton at WTO: domestic support, market access.

  Key Facts:

  • India seeks a balanced outcome on cotton issues at the WTO, including domestic support, market access, and development assistance.
  • India already offers duty-free access for cotton imports from least-developed countries.
• 2025-12-27 [International Relations] — Economic Challenges and India Ties
  Economic turmoil has disrupted long-standing economic cooperation between India and Bangladesh, which was built over decades. Bangladesh's economy, which grew 6.5–7% annually for 15 years, has slowed sharply with growth halving, factories closing, unemployment rising, and high inflation.
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  UPSC Angle: Economic challenges disrupt India-Bangladesh economic cooperation.

  Key Facts:

  • Economic growth in Bangladesh has slowed sharply, with growth having halved.
• 2025-11-24 [International Relations] — India Strengthens Textile and Sericulture Cooperation with Georgia
  India is strengthening its cooperation with Georgia in textiles and sericulture, including participation in the 11th BACSA International Conference (CULTUSERI 2025). Georgia's location at the crossroads of Eastern Europe and Western Asia makes it a significant geopolitical bridge.
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  UPSC Angle: India strengthens textile and sericulture cooperation with Georgia.

  Key Facts:

  • 11th BACSA International Conference (CULTUSERI 2025)
  • Georgia is a Transcaucasian country
  • Located at the crossroads of Eastern Europe and Western Asia
• 2025-07-27 [International Relations] — India-UK FTA: Duty concession on textiles.
  The UK's duty concession on textiles represents only half the battle won for India in the India-UK Free Trade Agreement. Market access and regulatory alignment are also critical for maximizing benefits for Indian textile exporters.
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  UPSC Angle: India-UK FTA: Duty concession on textiles represents only half the battle.

  Key Facts:

  • India-UK FTA
  • UK's duty concession on textiles
• 2025-04-21 [International Relations] — India-China Ties: Challenges and Convergence
  India and China face persistent structural challenges in their relationship, including the unresolved LAC dispute and strategic distrust. However, they also share common ground on climate justice, green financing, and South-South cooperation, enhancing India's leadership in multilateral climate platforms. India faces a massive trade deficit with China, creating economic vulnerability.
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  UPSC Angle: India-China: LAC dispute, climate justice, green transition.

  Key Facts:

  • India posted a trade deficit of $99.2 billion with China in the 2024-25 fiscal year.
  • In 2023-24, India imported USD 7 billion worth of solar equipment, with China supplying 62.6% of it.
• 2025-04-12 [International Relations] — Developed world more reliable trading partner than China: Goyal
  Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal expressed a preference for India to trade with European and North American partners over China. This reflects a strategic decision to diversify trade relationships and potentially reduce reliance on China.
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  UPSC Angle: Goyal prefers trade with Europe/North America over China.

  Key Facts:

  • Person: Piyush Goyal
  • Countries: India, China, Europe, North America

India's Global Trade Strategy and Tariff Management

Focus: India's navigation of international trade relations, focusing on tariff compliance, FTA negotiations, and responses to external trade barriers like carbon taxes.

UPSC Value: Analyzing India's trade policy and its alignment with global standards (WTO) is essential for International Relations and Economy.

5 news items in this theme:

• 2025-10-23 [Economy] — US Tariffs Impact on India's Pharmaceutical Sector
  The U.S. administration's prospective decision to impose tariffs on pharmaceutical imports introduces uncertainty for India's pharmaceutical industry, a global leader in generic drug production and biosimilars. Nearly one-third of India's pharmaceutical exports are directed to the United States, making the sector highly vulnerable to policy shifts and trade uncertainties.
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  UPSC Angle: US tariffs on pharmaceutical imports impact India's pharmaceutical sector.

  Key Facts:

  • Nearly one-third of India's pharmaceutical exports go to the U.S
• 2025-07-27 [International Relations] — Goyal: UK deal sets gold standards for FTAs.
  Goyal stated that the UK trade deal establishes gold standards for Free Trade Agreements, adding that India will retaliate if their carbon tax hurts the country. The agreement is expected to boost trade and economic ties between India and the UK.
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  UPSC Angle: Goyal: UK deal sets gold standards for FTAs.

  Key Facts:

  • UK deal sets gold standards for FTAs
  • Potential retaliation for carbon tax
• 2025-05-28 [Economy] — Carbon tax in UK FTA poses tariff risks for Indian exports
  Exports to the UK face tariff risks as carbon tax issues were not addressed in the Free Trade Agreement (FTA).
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  UPSC Angle: Carbon tax in UK FTA poses tariff risks for Indian exports.

  Key Facts:

  • Exports to UK carry tariff risk
  • Reason: carbon tax left out of FTA
• 2025-04-04 [Economy] — India to Lower Tariffs and Boost Global Trade Ties
  In response to the U.S.'s moves, India should lower tariffs and boost global trade ties. India should lower tariffs step by step.
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  UPSC Angle: India should lower tariffs and boost global trade ties.

  Key Facts:

  • India should reduce tariffs gradually and address non-tariff barriers.
  • India should sign FTAs with key economies like the U.S., EU, UK, and Japan.
• 2025-03-03 [Economy] — GTRI Think Tank Says Indian Tariffs WTO-Compliant
  The Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) stated that India's import duties comply with global trade rules and that the government should communicate this to the U.S. administration.
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  UPSC Angle: GTRI states India's import duties comply with WTO rules.

  Key Facts:

  • Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI)
  • India's import duties are WTO-compliant
  • Government should convey this to the U.S. administration

Germany's Strategic Reorientation in Global and Regional Governance

Focus: Items tracking Germany's strategic maneuvers across different scales of governance, from bilateral trade with India to multilateral UN reform and regional EU decision-making frameworks.

UPSC Value: Analyzing the foreign policy shifts of a key European power provides insights into the changing dynamics of global governance and the specific opportunities for India's bilateral and multilateral objectives.

3 news items in this theme:

• 2026-01-31 [International Relations] — Germany's New European Policy
  Germany's new European policy prioritizes effectiveness over unity, with Chancellor Friedrich Merz pushing for quicker decisions, even against close partners. When German Chancellor Friedrich Merz attended the meeting of government leaders from the European People's Party (EPP) in Zagreb on January 31, 2026, he described the new credo of his European policy in a single sentence.
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  UPSC Angle: Germany's new European policy prioritizes effectiveness over unity.

  Key Facts:

  • Qualified majority voting was widely used in the European Union's internal market, he said, this step must also be taken in foreign policy.
• 2025-09-03 [International Relations] — India-Germany Trade Volume
  It has been reported that India should double its trade volume with Germany, and its steps to normalize ties with China are a positive step. This news is relevant to the UPSC syllabus as it covers the effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India's interests.
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  UPSC Angle: India should double trade volume with Germany.

  Key Facts:

  • India
  • Germany
  • Trade volume
• 2025-04-17 [International Relations] — India Rejects UNSC Seat Allocation Based on Religion
  India, along with other G4 nations, has opposed proposals to allocate seats in a reformed UN Security Council based on religious affiliation, arguing it counters established UN practices and regional representation. India's Permanent Representative to the UN, Parvathaneni Harish, stated that introducing religious parameters would complicate discussions on Council reforms.
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  UPSC Angle: India rejects UNSC seat allocation based on religion.

  Key Facts:

  • India's Permanent Representative to the UN: Parvathaneni Harish
  • G4 members: India, Brazil, Germany, and Japan
  • Rejection of proposals by: Turkiye's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan
  • OIC proposed representation for: "Islamic Ummah"
  • IGN: Intergovernmental Negotiations

India's Structural Trade Deficits with China and ASEAN

Focus: Reports analyzing India's persistent and structural trade imbalances specifically with Eastern partners (China and ASEAN), citing consistent deficit figures and policy frameworks like RCEP.

UPSC Value: Crucial for understanding the structural challenges in India's Balance of Payments, the impact of regional trade agreements (RCEP/ASEAN FDA), and import dependency in critical sectors.

3 news items in this theme:

• 2026-01-29 [Economy] — India's Trade Deficit with China
  India's trade deficit with China widened from $1.1 billion in 2003–04 to $99.2 billion in 2024–25. China accounts for nearly 35% of India's overall trade imbalance of $283 billion. The deficit is structural, with China dominating India's import basket across major industrial categories.
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  UPSC Angle: India's trade deficit with China widened to $99.2 billion in 2024-25.

  Key Facts:

  • Trade deficit with China: $99.2 billion in 2024-25
  • China accounts for 35% of India's trade imbalance
  • India's overall trade imbalance: $283 billion
  • China supplies 97.7% of erythromycin
  • China supplies 96.8% of silicon wafers
  • China supplies 86% of flat panel displays
  • China supplies 82.7% of solar cells
  • China supplies 75.2% of lithium-ion batteries
• 2026-01-07 [Economy] — India's Trade Deficit with ASEAN
  India faces a trade deficit with ASEAN countries, approximately 17% overall, with significant deficits with Malaysia (40%), Thailand (8%), and Singapore. This trend follows the upgraded FDA between ASEAN and China in October 2025. However, India's electronic sector has seen an increase of almost 47% year on year.
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  UPSC Angle: India faces a trade deficit with ASEAN countries, particularly Malaysia.

  Key Facts:

  • India faces approximately 17% trade deficit with ASEAN countries.
  • 13% trade deficit with Singapore.
  • 40% trade deficit with Malaysia.
  • 8% trade deficit with Thailand.
  • Electronic sector increased by almost 47% year on year.
• 2025-10-07 [International Relations] — RCEP and India's Trade Strategy
  Amidst a thaw in India-China trade relations, there's renewed discussion about India potentially rejoining the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), from which it withdrew in 2019, due to concerns about Chinese goods flooding Indian markets. In 2024-2025, India's trade deficit with China was $99 billion, while trade with ASEAN countries was $123 billion.
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  UPSC Angle: Renewed discussion about India potentially rejoining RCEP.

  Key Facts:

  • Discussion of India rejoining RCEP
  • India withdrew from RCEP in 2019
  • 2024-2025 India-China trade deficit: $99 billion
  • 2024-2025 India-ASEAN trade: $123 billion
  • RCEP comprises 15 member countries
  • China urges India to join RCEP
  • India's exports to China fell 14.4% to $14.3 billion in FY25
  • India's imports from China grew 11.5% to $113.4 billion in FY25
  • India withdrew from RCEP negotiations in 2019

China's Trade Resilience and Global Friction

Focus: China's achievement of a record-breaking trade surplus in 2025 despite intensifying US-China tariff wars and pessimistic global trade forecasts from the WTO.

UPSC Value: Analyzing the resilience of export-oriented manufacturing economies against protectionist measures and the structural factors behind global trade imbalances.

3 news items in this theme:

• 2026-01-17 [Economy] — China Records Historic Trade Surplus
  In 2025, China achieved a record trade surplus of $1.2 trillion, the highest ever recorded by any country.
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  UPSC Angle: Not exam-relevant

  Key Facts:

  • China's trade surplus: $1.2 trillion (2025)
• 2025-04-17 [Economy] — WTO Projects Decline in Global Merchandise Trade
  The World Trade Organization (WTO) sharply cut its forecast for global merchandise trade, projecting a 0.2% fall amid rising tariff tensions. The WTO indicated that further U.S. tariffs and spillover effects could lead to the heaviest slump since the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2024-25, India's exports to China decreased by 14.5% to $14.25 billion, while imports from China increased by 11.52% to $113.45 billion.
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  UPSC Angle: WTO projects decline in global merchandise trade.

  Key Facts:

  • WTO forecast: 0.2% fall in global merchandise trade
  • India's exports to China: $14.25 billion (2024-25)
  • India's imports from China: $113.45 billion (2024-25)
  • India's trade deficit with China: $99.2 billion
• 2025-04-10 [International Relations] — Tariff war between the US and China Intensifies
  The US-China trade war escalated as the Trump administration imposed 104% tariffs on Chinese imports, leading China to retaliate with 84% tariffs on US goods. China blacklisted 12 US companies, enforced export controls on rare earths, and filed a WTO complaint. Despite a growing trade deficit, China has refused negotiations.
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  UPSC Angle: Not exam-relevant

  Key Facts:

  • US imposed 104% tariffs on Chinese imports
  • China retaliated with 84% tariffs on US goods
  • China blacklisted 12 US companies and added six to its unreliable entities list
  • China enforced export controls on rare earths and filed a WTO complaint
  • China's trade deficit: USD 440B imports vs. USD 145B exports in 2024

Strategic Resilience in Seafood Exports (FY 2025-26)

Focus: Items tracking India's seafood export performance, specifically focusing on market diversification and policy interventions (GST cuts) to counter tariff barriers.

UPSC Value: Illustrates how sector-specific trade diplomacy and fiscal policy (GST reduction) are used to mitigate the impact of protectionist barriers like tariffs.

3 news items in this theme:

• 2026-01-05 [Economy] — India's Seafood Exports Show Strong Growth
  India's marine product exports witnessed a significant increase of 16% in value and 12% in volume during April-October of FY 2025-26 compared to the same period last year. Export earnings rose from $4.19 billion to $4.87 billion, with volumes expanding from 9.62 lakh metric tonnes to 10.73 lakh metric tonnes. This growth occurred despite higher tariffs imposed by the United States, although exports to the U.S. declined marginally.
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  UPSC Angle: India's marine product exports show strong growth.

  Key Facts:

  • Marine products exports increased by 16% in value
  • Marine products exports increased by 12% in volume
  • Period: April-October FY 2025-26
  • Export value: $4.87 billion
  • Previous export value (same period 2024): $4.19 billion
  • Key export destinations: Vietnam, Belgium, Malaysia, Germany, China
  • India's seafood exports grew by 16% in value and 12% in volume during April-October of FY 2025-26.
  • Export earnings increased from $4.19 billion to $4.87 billion.
  • Export volumes rose from 9.62 lakh metric tonnes to 10.73 lakh metric tonnes.
  • Exports to the U.S. declined marginally due to higher tariffs.
• 2025-11-21 [Agriculture] — India Focuses on Sustainability and Seafood Export Value Addition on World Fisheries Day
  India observed World Fisheries Day 2025 on November 21, emphasizing sustainability, the blue economy, and increasing the value of seafood exports. The country also launched the National Framework on Traceability in Fisheries & Aquaculture. GST on key seafood products was reduced from 12% to 5% to boost affordability and export competitiveness.
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  UPSC Angle: India focuses on sustainability and seafood export value addition.

  Key Facts:

  • World Fisheries Day celebrated on 21 November.
  • Theme: India's Blue Transformation: Strengthening Value Addition in Seafood Exports.
  • Celebrated by Department of Fisheries at Sushma Swaraj Bhawan in New Delhi.
  • World Fisheries Day 2025 observed on November 21
  • National Framework on Traceability in Fisheries & Aquaculture released
  • GST on key seafood products reduced from 12% to 5%
  • Marine product exports (Oct 2024 → Oct 2025) rose 11.08% (US$ 0.81B → US$ 0.90B)
  • India is the 2nd-largest fish producer and a top global shrimp producer
  • Major launches: SOPs for Mariculture, Smart Harbour Guidelines, Reservoir Fisheries Guidelines, Compendium on Coastal Aquaculture, plus traceability standards
• 2025-11-16 [Economy] — India's Seafood Exports Expanding
  India is expanding its seafood exports to the EU, Russia, and Australia, providing relief to domestic fisheries affected by high tariffs.
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  UPSC Angle: India's seafood exports expanding to the EU, Russia, and Australia.

  Key Facts:

  • Expansion of seafood exports
  • Destinations: EU, Russia, Australia

Recalibration of the India-ASEAN Trade Partnership

Focus: Items focusing specifically on the review and renegotiation of the ASEAN-India Trade in Goods Agreement (AITIGA) to address trade deficits.

UPSC Value: Useful for understanding the shift from mere trade integration to addressing structural deficits and non-tariff barriers in existing FTAs.

3 news items in this theme:

• 2025-12-13 [Economy] — India's Expanding FTA Network: Challenges and Opportunities
  India's expanding network of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) reflects a push to counter protectionism and strengthen global integration; however, past experiences show trade deals alone cannot guarantee success without addressing structural weaknesses and exporter capabilities. Reviews of FTAs with ASEAN, Japan, and Korea have led to some policy recalibration, and the India–UAE CEPA reflects a more balanced approach, with non-oil trade reaching about $100 billion in FY25.
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  UPSC Angle: India's expanding FTA network: challenges and opportunities.

  Key Facts:

  • India has entered into 20 regional/free trade agreements as per the World Trade Organization.
  • Recent deals exclude those with the United Kingdom (signed in July) and EFTA (effective from October).
  • Negotiations are ongoing with the United States, European Union, Canada, and the Southern African Customs Union.
  • India's trade deficit with ASEAN rose sharply from about $10 billion (2017) to nearly $44 billion (2023).
  • Non-oil trade between India and UAE reached about $100 billion in FY25.
• 2025-08-11 [International Relations] — India-ASEAN officials to review Trade in Goods Agreement
  Indian and ASEAN officials will meet in New Delhi beginning August 11, 2025, to hold talks on a review of the ASEAN-India Trade in Goods Agreement (AITIGA). India is seeking to shore up trade negotiations, including with ASEAN countries, as it braces for the impact of U.S. tariffs of 25% that went into effect from August 7.
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  UPSC Angle: India and ASEAN to review the ASEAN-India Trade in Goods Agreement.

  Key Facts:

  • Talks to review ASEAN-India Trade in Goods Agreement (AITIGA) will begin August 11, 2025 in New Delhi
  • Delegation of the 10-nation ASEAN will hold talks with Commerce Ministry officials from August 11-14
  • India faces U.S. tariffs of 25% imposed on Indian goods from August 7, 2025
  • India opened up about 71% of its tariff lines, while ASEAN countries offered considerably less, including Indonesia at just 41%
  • India's exports to ASEAN countries grew at an average annual rate of 1.7%, to $39 billion as of 2024-25
  • Imports from ASEAN grew at 7.5% on average every year, to $84.2 billion by 2024-25
  • Trade deficit swelled to $45.2 billion last year
• 2025-04-12 [International Relations] — INSIGHTS IAS: ASEAN-India Trade in Goods Agreement (AITIGA)
  The ASEAN-India Trade in Goods Agreement (AITIGA) is a free trade agreement (FTA) between India and the 10 ASEAN member states, to enhance economic integration and bilateral trade. Bilateral trade reached $121 billion (2023-24), making ASEAN 11% of India's global trade.
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  UPSC Angle: ASEAN-India Trade in Goods Agreement (AITIGA) details and objectives.

  Key Facts:

  • A free trade agreement (FTA) between India and the 10 ASEAN member states.
  • Tariff Liberalization: Gradual reduction of import duties on over 75% of traded goods.
  • Rules of Origin: Ensures only ASEAN-India goods get preferential treatment.
  • Bilateral trade reached $121 billion (2023-24), making ASEAN 11% of India's global trade.