India's Trade Resilience and External Stability: UPSC Current Affairs Analysis & Study Strategy

In-Depth Analysis

The Big Picture

India's external sector in 2025-26 is defined by a strategic pivot towards services-led stability and high-stakes bilateralism to counter global headwinds. While merchandise trade remains vulnerable to geopolitical tariffs (e.g., 50% US tariff in August 2025), a robust services surplus and aggressive time-bound trade targets with the Global South and West Asia are acting as the primary shields for India's Current Account.

Cross-Theme Insight

The threads together reveal a shift from 'passive' trade monitoring to 'active' quantified diplomacy. Instead of general cooperation, India is now setting specific monetary benchmarks—$200 billion with UAE by 2032 and $20 billion with Brazil. This suggests that India is leveraging its 'Office of the World' status (services surplus) to bridge the persistent merchandise gaps while diversifying its export basket across geographically diverse regions like Africa and Türkiye.

Textbook vs Reality Gap

Standard textbooks like Nitin Singhania (p. 472) state that India's Balance of Trade (BOT) has 'always been negative'. However, the 2025 data shows periods of extreme compression of this deficit, such as a 54% fall in September 2025. Furthermore, while NCERT (Macroeconomics p. 87) focuses on the theory of BoP components, the 2025 reality emphasizes the unprecedented dominance of 'Invisibles', which grew from $53.5 billion in 2003–04 to a staggering $576.5 billion in 2024–25, surpassing merchandise exports as the main driver of external stability.

How This Theme Is Evolving

Throughout 2025-2026, the theme evolved from simple 'recovery' to 'resilient growth' despite 50% US tariffs. The focus has sharpened on MSME connectivity (Bharat Mart) and diversifying services beyond IT into professional and BPO sectors.

UPSC Exam Intelligence

Previous Year Question Pattern

UPSC consistently tests the components of the Current Account and India's top trading partners. For instance, IAS 2020 (NID: 5883) tested the relative scale of merchandise vs services exports. CDS-II 2024 (NID: 14709) specifically targeted the classification of 'Invisibles' within BoP accounts, showing a shift towards more technical granular testing of the external sector.

Probable Prelims Angles

• Components of the Current Account: Visibles (merchandise) vs Invisibles (services, remittances, transfers).
• Specific trade targets: UAE ($200bn by 2032), Brazil ($20bn), Ghana (double trade in 5 years).
• Direction of trade: India's trade surplus status with the USA ($41.18bn in FY25) vs deficit with other major partners.
• Impact of US tariffs (50%) on Indian goods exports in late 2025.

Mains Answer Framework

• Despite a widening merchandise trade deficit driven by global headwinds, India's services sector and strategic bilateralism have emerged as the twin pillars of its external economic stability in 2025-26.
• The role of the Services Surplus (e.g., $18.12 billion in Dec 2025) in offsetting merchandise deficits and narrowing the CAD.. Strategic shift towards 'Quantified Diplomacy'—setting specific targets with partners like UAE and Brazil to ensure predictable export growth.. Challenges of tariff barriers and the necessity of diversifying into manufacturing sectors like electronics and pharmaceuticals to reduce merchandise imbalance.
• To achieve the goal of $1 trillion in exports, India must sustain its services dominance while aggressively integrating its MSMEs into global value chains through initiatives like Bharat Mart.

Essay Connections

• India as the 'Office of the World': Using the growth of services (reaching $576.5bn in invisibles) to argue for India's emerging soft power in the global knowledge economy.
• The Geopolitics of Trade: How India balances relations with Türkiye and the US while expanding into the Global South (Africa/Brazil).

Preparation Strategy

Reading Approach

Begin with Nitin Singhania Chapter 16 to master the static definitions of BoP. Then, overlay the 2025-26 monthly trade figures to understand how services (invisibles) currently dominate the balance, contrary to the merchandise-focused historical narrative.

Textbook Roadmap

• Nitin Singhania, Indian Economy, Chapter 16: Balance of Payments. Threads 2, 3, and 7. Definitions of BOT, Current Account, and Invisibles (p. 469-473).
• NCERT Class XII Macroeconomics, Chapter 6: Open Economy. Threads 4 and 9. The formula for Current Account Balance and the difference between Autonomous and Accommodating items.

Revision Bullets

• India-UAE Trade Target: $200 Billion by 2032.
• Services Trade Surplus (Dec 2025): $18.12 Billion (Rs. 1.50 lakh crore).
• Invisible Receipts (2024-25): $576.5 Billion.
• India-US Trade Surplus (FY25): $41.18 Billion (16.6% growth).
• Cumulative Exports (Apr-Oct 2025): $491.80 Billion (4.84% growth).
• Trade Deficit Compression: 54% fall reported in Sept 2025 due to export surge.
• US Tariff Impact: 50% tariff imposed on Indian goods in August 2025.

Sub-Themes and News Coverage (9 themes, 38 news items)

India's Trade Balance and Export Performance (FY 2025-26)

Focus: A chronological series of monthly and quarterly reports tracking India's merchandise and services exports, imports, and trade deficits throughout the fiscal year.

UPSC Value: Essential for analyzing trends in India's Balance of Payments, the impact of global headwinds (like tariffs), and the widening trade deficit.

8 news items in this theme:

• 2026-02-23 [Economy] — India's January 2026 trade deficit widens
  India's merchandise trade deficit widened to $34.7 billion in January 2026, with imports rising 19.2% year-on-year to $71.24 billion and exports increasing marginally by 0.6% to $36.5 billion. The United States remains India's top export destination, while China is the top source of imports. In the fiscal year so far, India shipped goods worth $72.46 billion to the US, higher by 6% as compared to $68.46 billion in the year-ago period.
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  UPSC Angle: India's merchandise trade deficit widened to $34.7 billion in January 2026.

  Key Facts:

  • Merchandise trade deficit: $34.7 billion in January 2026
  • Imports: Increased by 19.2% year-on-year to $71.24 billion
  • Exports: Increased by 0.6% YoY to $36.5 billion
  • Top export destination: United States ($72.46 billion)
  • Top import source: China
• 2026-01-17 [Economy] — India's export growth slows amid rising imports in December 2025
  India's trade data for December 2025 reveals a slowdown in export growth alongside high import levels, especially after the U.S. imposed a 50% tariff on Indian goods in August 2025. This has resulted in a widening trade deficit, raising concerns about India's external trade stability. India needs to diversify its export pool to offset US tariffs.
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  UPSC Angle: India's export growth slows amid rising imports in December 2025.

  Key Facts:

  • India's goods exports in December 2025: $38.5 billion (1.8% annual growth)
  • India's goods imports in December 2025: $63.55 billion (9% higher than December 2024)
  • Trade deficit in December 2025: $25 billion
  • US imposed a 50% tariff on Indian goods from August 2025
• 2025-12-06 [Economy] — India Exports Rise, Trade Gap Widens Amid Global Headwinds
  India's export sector demonstrated resilience in December, with goods and services growth projected to continue into January, despite global economic headwinds. Merchandise exports climbed 1.87% to $38.51 billion in December, while services exports remained strong. However, import growth outpaced exports, widening the trade deficit to $25.04 billion for the month and $248.32 billion cumulatively April-December.
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  UPSC Angle: India's export sector demonstrated resilience in December.

  Key Facts:

  • Merchandise exports climbed 1.87% to $38.51 billion in December
  • Import growth outpaced exports, widening the trade deficit to $25.04 billion for the month and $248.32 billion cumulatively April-December
  • Services exports were estimated at $35.50 billion in December
  • The Ministry of Commerce anticipates total goods and services exports to surpass $850 billion for the fiscal year 2025-26
• 2025-11-17 [Economy] — India's Exports and Imports for April-October 2025
  India's cumulative exports (merchandise and services) during April-October 2025 are estimated at US$ 491.80 Billion, a 4.84% growth compared to US$ 469.11 Billion in April-October 2024. Total imports for the same period are estimated at US$ 569.95 Billion, a 5.74% growth. For October 2025, total exports are estimated at US$ 72.89 Billion, a negative growth of (-) 0.68 percent, while total imports are estimated at US$ 94.70 Billion, a positive growth of 14.87 percent.
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  UPSC Angle: India's exports grew 4.84% during April-October 2025.

  Key Facts:

  • Cumulative exports (merchandise & services) for April-October 2025: US$ 491.80 Billion
  • Cumulative exports growth (April-October 2025): 4.84%
  • Cumulative imports (April-October 2025): US$ 569.95 Billion
  • Cumulative imports growth (April-October 2025): 5.74%
  • Total exports for October 2025: US$ 72.89 Billion
  • Total exports growth for October 2025: (-) 0.68%
  • Total imports for October 2025: US$ 94.70 Billion
  • Total imports growth for October 2025: 14.87%
  • Coffee exports increased by 10.91 % from US$ 0.12 Billion in October 2024 to US$ 0.13 Billion in October 2025.
  • Merchandise trade deficit: $24.53 billion
  • Total exports: $73.99 billion (+15.52%)
  • Merchandise exports: $38.13 billion
  • Merchandise imports: $62.66 billion
  • Services exports: $35.86 billion
  • Key export sectors: Engineering goods, electronic goods, gems and jewellery, drugs and pharmaceuticals, petroleum products
• 2025-07-17 [Economy] — India's Trade Shows Positive Trends in Q1 FY 2025–26
  In the first quarter of FY 2025-26, India's total exports (goods and services) reached $210.3 billion, up 6% from $198.5 billion in Q1 FY 2024-25. Total imports were $230.6 billion, a 4.4% increase. The trade deficit was $20.3 billion, a 9.4% reduction from the same period last year, mainly due to an 11% increase in services exports.
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  UPSC Angle: India's trade shows positive trends in Q1 FY 2025–26.

  Key Facts:

  • Total Exports (Q1 2025-26): $210.31 billion (+6%)
  • Merchandise Exports: $112.17 billion (+1.92%)
  • Services Exports: $98.13 billion (+10.93%)
  • Trade Deficit: $20.3 billion (-9.4%)
  • Top Export Destination: The U.S.
  • Total Exports (Goods + Services): $210.3 billion (up 6% from $198.5 billion in Q1 FY 2024–25).
  • Total Imports: $230.6 billion (up 4.4%).
  • Trade Deficit: $20.3 billion in Q1 FY 2025–26 (9.4% reduction).
  • Services Exports: $98.1 billion (11% increase).
  • Merchandise Exports (Goods): $112.2 billion (up 2%).
• 2025-07-11 [Economy] — India's Trade Deficit Widens in July 2025
  India's overall trade deficit widened to USD 11.72 billion in July 2025, up from USD 10.10 billion in July 2024, driven by a faster rise in imports compared to exports. Exports grew to USD 68.25 billion, while imports reached USD 79.99 billion. The government aims to achieve USD 1 trillion in exports for the financial year 2025-26.
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  UPSC Angle: India's trade deficit widened in July 2025 due to import rise.

  Key Facts:

  • Trade deficit: USD 11.72 billion in July 2025
  • Exports: USD 68.25 billion in July 2025
  • Imports: USD 79.99 billion in July 2025
  • Export growth target: USD 1 trillion for financial year 2025-26
  • Engineering Goods exports increased by 13.75%
  • Electronic Goods exports increased by 33.89%
  • Gems & Jewellery exports increased by 28.95%
  • Drugs & Pharmaceuticals exports increased by 14.06%
  • Organic & Inorganic Chemicals exports increased by 7.19%
• 2025-05-16 [Economy] — India's Trade Deficit Widens to $8.65 Billion
  India's total exports (merchandise + services) in FY 2024–25 touched an all-time high of $824.9 billion, registering a 6% year-on-year growth. Merchandise trade deficit widened to $26.4 billion in April 2025 (up from $19.19 billion in April 2024), as exports rose 9% to $38.49 billion while imports increased at a faster pace of 19.1% to $64.91 billion. Services exports grew 17% to $35.31 billion, while services imports rose 4.6% to $17.54 billion.
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  UPSC Angle: India's trade deficit widens to $8.65 billion in April 2025.

  Key Facts:

  • Total exports (FY 2024-25): $824.9 billion (6% growth)
  • Merchandise exports (April 2025): $38.49 billion (9% increase)
  • Merchandise imports (April 2025): $64.91 billion (19.1% increase)
  • Merchandise trade deficit (April 2025): $26.4 billion
  • Services exports: $35.31 billion (17% growth)
  • Services imports: $17.54 billion (4.6% rise)
• 2025-03-14 [Economy] — India's Trade Deficit Widens in March 2025
  India's trade deficit widened to $21.54 billion in March 2025 due to an 11.3% surge in imports, outpacing the marginal 0.7% increase in exports. For FY25, merchandise exports stood at $437.42 billion, slightly higher than the $437.07 billion in FY24, with overall exports of goods and services increasing by 5.5% to $820.93 billion.
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  UPSC Angle: India's trade deficit widens in March 2025 to $21.54 billion.

  Key Facts:

  • Trade deficit: $21.54 billion
  • Merchandise exports (March 2025): $41.97 billion
  • Imports (March 2025): $63.51 billion
  • Merchandise exports (FY25): $437.42 billion
  • Merchandise exports (FY24): $437.07 billion
  • Overall exports of goods and services increase by 5.5% to $820.93 billion

India's Monthly Merchandise Trade Trends (FY 2025-26)

Focus: A chronological series of monthly trade data releases tracking fluctuations in India's exports, imports, and trade deficit.

UPSC Value: Provides a macroeconomic timeline of India's external sector performance, highlighting the volatility of trade balances and global demand.

5 news items in this theme:

• 2026-02-23 [Economy] — Indian iPhone exports surge in 2025
  Smartphones became India's top export in 2025, valued at $30.13 billion, a 47% increase from $20.44 billion in 2024, with iPhone shipments accounting for $23 billion. Apple's iPhone was the single largest export item within the smartphone category, with approximately 76% of total smartphone exports linked to Apple products. Most exports were directed to the United States.
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  UPSC Angle: Smartphones became India's top export in 2025, valued at $30.13 billion.

  Key Facts:

  • Smartphones became India's top export in 2025
  • Total smartphone exports: $30.13 billion in 2025 (up from $20.44 billion in 2024)
  • iPhone shipments from India: Estimated at $23 billion in 2025 (compared to $11.5 billion a year earlier)
  • Apple products: Approximately 76% of total smartphone exports
  • Top export destination: United States
  • Increase attributed to the production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme and expanded local assembly operations
• 2025-11-19 [Economy] — India's trade data for November 2025
  In November 2025, India's total exports (merchandise and services combined) reached US$ 73.99 billion, a 15.52% increase compared to November 2024, while total imports stood at US$ 80.63 billion, a 0.60% decrease. Merchandise exports increased by 19.37% to $38.13 billion, the fastest growth since June 2022, driven by engineering goods and electronics. The trade deficit narrowed to US$24.53 billion, down from US$41.68 billion in October.
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  UPSC Angle: Not exam-relevant

  Key Facts:

  • Total exports (merchandise and services): US$ 73.99 Billion (November 2025)
  • Export growth: 15.52% compared to November 2024
  • Total imports (merchandise and services): US$ 80.63 Billion (November 2025)
  • Import growth: -0.60% compared to November 2024
  • Merchandise exports: US$ 38.13 Billion (November 2025)
  • Merchandise export growth: 19.37%
  • Trade deficit: US$ 24.53 Billion
  • Engineering Goods exports increased by 23.76 % from US$ 8.90 Billion in November 2024 to US$ 11.01 Billion in November 2025.
  • Electronic Goods exports increased by 38.96 % from US$ 3.46 Billion in November 2024 to US$ 4.81 Billion in November 2025.
  • Gems & Jewellery exports increased by 27.80 % from US$ 2.07 Billion in November 2024 to US$ 2.64 Billion in November 2025.
  • Drugs & Pharmaceuticals exports increased by 20.91 % from US$ 2.16 Billion in November 2024 to US$ 2.61 Billion in November 2025.
  • Petroleum Products exports increased by 11.65 % from US$ 3.52 Billion in November 2024 to US$ 3.93 Billion in November 2025.
• 2025-09-21 [Economy] — India's Merchandise Exports Rise Despite Global Trade Headwinds
  India's merchandise exports increased by 6.75% in September 2025, reaching USD 36.38 billion, despite tariff hikes by major trading partners. However, the trade deficit widened as imports surged 16.7% year-on-year to USD 68.53 billion. The combined merchandise and services trade deficit rose to USD 16.61 billion, nearly doubling from USD 8.60 billion in the same month last year.
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  UPSC Angle: India's merchandise exports rise despite global trade headwinds.

  Key Facts:

  • Merchandise exports rose by 6.75% to USD 36.38 billion in September 2025.
  • Imports surged 16.7% to USD 68.53 billion.
  • Combined trade deficit rose to USD 16.61 billion.
  • Total exports stood at USD 67.20 billion.
  • Total imports climbed to USD 83.82 billion.
• 2025-09-17 [Economy] — India's August 2025 trade data shows export rise
  India's August 2025 trade data, released by the Commerce and Industry Ministry, indicates a rise in goods exports by 7% YoY to $35.10 billion. Imports fell by 12% to $61.59 billion.
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  UPSC Angle: India's August 2025 trade data shows export rise.

  Key Facts:

  • August 2025
  • Commerce and Industry Ministry
  • goods exports rose 7% YoY
  • $35.10 billion
  • imports fell by 12%
  • $61.59 billion
• 2025-04-27 [Economy] — India's Trade Deficit Expands in April
  India's trade deficit significantly widened to $26.42 billion in April, up from $21.54 billion in March, due to a surge in imports. Imports rose by 19.12% to $64.91 billion, while exports increased by 9.03% reaching $38.49 billion. This reflects ongoing volatility in global trade influenced by factors like tariff policies.
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  UPSC Angle: India's trade deficit widens to $26.42 billion in April.

  Key Facts:

  • India's trade deficit widened to $26.42 billion in April.
  • Imports increased by 19.12% to $64.91 billion.
  • Exports increased by 9.03% to $38.49 billion.

India's Quantified Bilateral Trade Targets

Focus: High-level diplomatic engagements resulting in the setting of specific, time-bound monetary or volume-based trade goals for the 2030-2032 horizon.

UPSC Value: Demonstrates India's shift towards economic-centric foreign policy and its strategy of setting measurable benchmarks for international partnerships across the Global South and West Asia.

5 news items in this theme:

• 2026-02-21 [International Relations] — India, Brazil set $30 billion trade target by 2030, sign mineral pacts
  India and Brazil have agreed to a trade target of $30 billion by 2030 and have signed mineral pacts. This agreement aims to strengthen bilateral trade relations and cooperation in the mineral sector.
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  UPSC Angle: India, Brazil set $30 billion trade target by 2030.

  Key Facts:

  • India
  • Brazil
  • $30 billion trade target by 2030
• 2026-01-19 [International Relations] — India-UAE Relations: Bilateral Trade Target
  President of the UAE, Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, visited India on January 19, 2026, to strengthen the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. Both countries aim to double bilateral trade to US$ 200 billion by 2032 and are working to connect MSMEs and implement initiatives like 'Bharat Mart' to promote trade in the Middle East, West Asia, Africa, and Eurasia.
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  UPSC Angle: India and UAE aim to double bilateral trade to US$ 160 billion.

  Key Facts:

  • President of the UAE Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan visited India on January 19, 2026.
  • Bilateral trade reached US$ 100 billion in FY 2024-25.
  • Target to double bilateral trade to US$ 200 billion by 2032.
  • Initiatives like 'Bharat Mart', 'Virtual Trade Corridor', and 'Bharat-Africa Setu' to promote MSME products.
  • UAE President visit to India for bilateral talks
  • Focus on India-UAE strategic relations
  • Discussion topics: India's West Asia Policy, economic diplomacy, energy security, I2U2
• 2025-10-17 [International Relations] — India and Brazil Aim to Strengthen Bilateral Ties
  Brazilian Vice President Geraldo Alckmin concluded his visit to India, marking a new chapter in the India-Brazil strategic partnership, with discussions to deepen cooperation in trade, defense, agriculture, energy, and technology. Both sides agreed to work towards achieving a $20 billion bilateral trade target by 2030 and to expand the MERCOSUR–India Preferential Trade Agreement. The visit reaffirmed the growing partnership between the two major democracies of the Global South, committed to strengthening economic, technological, and people-to-people ties.
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  UPSC Angle: India and Brazil aim to strengthen bilateral ties.

  Key Facts:

  • India
  • Brazil
  • Strategic partnership
  • Geraldo Alckmin
  • Bilateral trade target
  • $20 billion
  • 2030
  • MERCOSUR-India Preferential Trade Agreement
  • Geraldo Alckmin, Brazilian Vice President, visited India
  • Goal to reach $20 billion in bilateral trade by 2030
  • Expand MERCOSUR–India Preferential Trade Agreement
  • Prime Minister Modi's State Visit to Brazil in July 2025
  • India and Brazil collaborate on BRICS, IBSA, G20, G4, International Solar Alliance, and Global Biofuel Alliance
  • India pitching the Akash missile system for supply to Brazil
• 2025-07-03 [International Relations] — India-Ghana Relations Elevated to Comprehensive Partnership
  India and Ghana have elevated their bilateral ties to a comprehensive partnership following discussions between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President John Dramani Mahama. Both sides aim to double two-way trade in the next five years, with India positioning itself as a co-traveler in Ghana's development. Four agreements were signed to enhance cooperation in culture and traditional medicine.
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  UPSC Angle: India and Ghana elevate relations to comprehensive partnership.

  Key Facts:

  • India and Ghana elevated ties to a comprehensive partnership on July 3, 2025.
  • Target to double two-way trade in the next five years.
  • Four cooperation pacts signed in culture and traditional medicine.
  • Prime Minister: Narendra Modi
  • President: John Dramani Mahama
• 2025-03-11 [International Relations] — India, Qatar to boost bilateral trade
  Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal announced deeper ties with Qatar, focusing on boosting bilateral trade to $30 billion by 2030 through rupee-QAR settlements for energy and exports. Qatar's $11.9 billion petroleum/gas supply is a lifeline amid potential US tariffs.
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  UPSC Angle: India, Qatar to boost bilateral trade to $30 billion by 2030.

  Key Facts:

  • Countries: India, Qatar
  • Target: $30 billion bilateral trade by 2030
  • Focus: Rupee-QAR settlements
  • Qatar's petroleum/gas supply: $11.9 billion

FY25-26 Trade Balance and Deficit Reports

Focus: Periodic statistical releases tracking India's export performance, trade surpluses, and widening deficits with major partners like the US and China.

UPSC Value: Useful for tracking the macroeconomic trends of India's Balance of Payments and the shifting dynamics of specific bilateral trade deficits.

5 news items in this theme:

• 2025-10-16 [Economy] — India's Goods Exports Register Growth
  Despite a sharp fall of 12% in India's goods exports to the United States in September (year-on-year), the total exports registered a 6.74% growth, supported by gains in the UAE and Chinese markets. However, a sharp surge in gold, silver, and fertiliser imports widened the trade deficit to $31.15 billion, the highest in over a year, according to data released by the Commerce and Industry Ministry.
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  UPSC Angle: India's goods exports register growth despite fall to US.

  Key Facts:

  • India's goods exports to the United States registered a sharp fall of 12 per cent in September (year on year).
  • Total exports registered a 6.74 per cent growth, buttressed by gains in the UAE and Chinese markets.
  • The trade deficit widened to $31.15 billion, the highest in over a year.
• 2025-05-16 [Economy] — India's Trade Deficit Widens
  India's trade deficit has expanded due to a rise in merchandise imports. This widening deficit is influenced by factors such as oil and electronics imports, rupee volatility, and global demand.
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  UPSC Angle: India's trade deficit widens due to rise in merchandise imports.

  Key Facts:

  • India
  • trade deficit
  • merchandise imports
• 2025-04-18 [Economy] — India's Trade Deficit with China Widens
  India's trade deficit with China has widened to a record $99.2 billion in the fiscal year 2024-25. This is driven by increased imports of electronics, batteries, and solar components, while exports have fallen. Despite this, China remains India's second-largest trading partner with a total bilateral trade of $127.7 billion, second to the United States.
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  UPSC Angle: India's trade deficit with China widens to $99.2 billion.

  Key Facts:

  • Trade deficit: $99.2 billion in FY 2024-25
  • Total bilateral trade: $127.7 billion in 2024-25
  • Second-largest trading partner: China
  • Largest trading partner: United States
• 2025-04-18 [Economy] — India's Exports to USA Grew by 11.6% in FY25
  India's exports to the USA grew by 11.6% in FY25 to USD 86.51 billion, while imports from the USA rose by 7.44% to USD 45.33 billion. India's trade surplus with the USA increased to USD 41.18 billion in FY25 from USD 35.32 billion in FY24.
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  UPSC Angle: India's exports to USA grew by 11.6% in FY25.

  Key Facts:

  • Exports to USA (FY25): USD 86.51 billion (11.6% growth)
  • Imports from USA (FY25): USD 45.33 billion (7.44% growth)
  • Trade surplus with USA (FY25): USD 41.18 billion
• 2025-03-20 [Economy] — India's Trade Surplus with the US Jumps
  India's trade surplus with the US jumped 16.6% in FY25, reaching $41.18 billion from $35.32 billion in the previous year. Indian goods exports to the US increased by 11.6%, from $77.52 billion in FY24 to $86.51 billion in FY25. Major goods exported to the US included electronic goods, textiles, drugs and pharmaceuticals, engineering goods, gems and jewellery, petroleum products and agricultural products.
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  UPSC Angle: India's trade surplus with the US jumped 16.6% in FY25.

  Key Facts:

  • Trade deficit: $21.54 billion in March
  • Merchandise exports for FY25: $437.42 billion
  • Merchandise exports for FY24: $437.07 billion
  • Total export (Merchandise & Services) in March 2025: $73.61 billion
  • Total export (Merchandise & Services) in March 2023: $71.71 billion
  • Trade surplus with the US in FY25: $41.18 billion
  • Trade surplus with the US in FY24: $35.32 billion
  • Increase: 16.6%
  • Indian goods exports to the US in FY25: $86.51 billion
  • Indian goods exports to the US in FY24: $77.52 billion
  • Increase: 11.6%

Bilateral Trade Performance and Investment Profiles

Focus: Detailed reporting of trade volumes, export-import balances, and cumulative investment figures with specific regional or national partners.

UPSC Value: Critical for analyzing India's trade balance, identifying key export destinations, and evaluating the diversification of India's economic diplomacy.

3 news items in this theme:

• 2026-01-25 [Economy] — India's Trade with the UK
  Bilateral trade between India and the UK reached USD 21.34 billion in 2023–24. India is the UK's 11th largest trading partner.
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  UPSC Angle: India-UK bilateral trade reached USD 21.34 billion in 2023–24.

  Key Facts:

  • Bilateral trade reached USD 21.34 billion in 2023–24.
  • India is the UK's 11th largest trading partner.
• 2025-11-18 [International Relations] — India-Africa Relations: Connecting, Building, and Reviving
  India's relationship with Africa has grown significantly, with trade crossing $100 billion in 2024-25. India is now the continent's 3rd-largest trading partner. India has opened 17 new missions across Africa since 2015 and is one of the top five investors in Africa, with cumulative investments of $75 billion.
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  UPSC Angle: India-Africa trade crosses $100 billion in 2024-25.

  Key Facts:

  • Trade between India and Africa crossed $100 billion (2024–25).
  • India is Africa's 3rd-largest trading partner.
  • India has opened 17 new missions across Africa since 2015.
  • India is one of the top five investors in Africa with cumulative investments of $75 billion.
  • India has committed $10 billion in Lines of Credit (LoCs) supporting 189 projects in 42 countries.
• 2025-06-09 [International Relations] — India-Türkiye Relations
  India is carefully balancing its trade relations with Türkiye, ensuring that economic advantages are not compromised despite geopolitical concerns. In FY25, India's exports to Turkey totaled $5.72 billion, with engineering exports accounting for over 50% of the total. India has a trade surplus of $2.73 billion with Turkey, primarily driven by engineering goods, electronics, and chemicals.
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  UPSC Angle: India balancing trade with Türkiye despite geopolitical concerns.

  Key Facts:

  • India's trade surplus with Turkey: $2.73 billion
  • India's exports to Turkey in FY25: $5.72 billion
  • Engineering exports share: Over 50% of total exports
  • Key exports: engineering goods, electronics, and chemicals
  • Turkey's exports to India: fruits, nuts, gold, and marble
  • Trade surplus with Turkey: $2.73 billion
  • India's exports to Turkey (FY25): $5.72 billion
  • Engineering exports: over 50% of total exports
  • Turkey's exports to India: fruits, nuts, gold, marble

Macroeconomic Performance and Sectoral Growth in Indian Exports

Focus: Data-driven reports documenting India's rising competitiveness in services, narrowing trade deficits, and expanding bilateral trade volumes with specific partners.

UPSC Value: Provides empirical evidence of India's shifting trade balance and its emerging status as a global services hub for GS Paper III economic analysis.

3 news items in this theme:

• 2025-12-31 [International Relations] — India-Australia Bilateral Trade
  India's exports to Australia witnessed a growth of 8% in last financial year i.e. Financial Year 2024-25 (FY25), enhancing India's overall trade balance with the country. The robust growth can be witnessed across various sectors like: manufacturing, chemicals, textiles, pharmaceuticals, petroleum products, and gems and jewellery.
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  UPSC Angle: India's exports to Australia grew by 8% in FY25.

  Key Facts:

  • India's exports to Australia witnessed a growth of 8% in Financial Year 2024-25 (FY25).
  • Sectors Benefitted: manufacturing, chemicals, textiles, pharmaceuticals, petroleum products, and gems and jewellery.
• 2025-09-16 [Economy] — Trade Deficit Falls Amid Export Surge
  India's trade deficit has decreased by 54% due to a surge in exports, indicating a positive trend for the Indian economy. The improved trade balance reflects enhanced competitiveness and increased demand for Indian goods in the global market.
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  UPSC Angle: India's trade deficit decreased by 54% due to export surge.

  Key Facts:

  • trade deficit
  • 54%
  • export surge
• 2025-09-11 [Economy] — India Rapidly Emerging as Global Hub for Services Exports
  India is rapidly emerging as a global hub for services exports, showcasing its growing strength in the global economy. This trend underscores India's increasing competitiveness and importance in the international services sector.
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  UPSC Angle: India's growing strength as a global hub for services exports.

  Key Facts:

  • India
  • global hub
  • services exports

India's 2025 Macro-Trade and Services Performance Indicators

Focus: Periodic official reporting and statistical analysis of India's merchandise trade, services exports, and their aggregate contribution to the national economy.

UPSC Value: Essential for analyzing India's Balance of Payments (BoP) trends, trade deficit management, and the structural shift toward a services-led export economy.

3 news items in this theme:

• 2025-12-15 [Economy] — India's Foreign Trade Figures for December 2025 Released
  The Ministry of Commerce and Industry released India's foreign trade figures for December 2025. The ministry also released quick estimates for selected major commodities for the same period, along with merchandise trade data for the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS).
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  UPSC Angle: Not exam-relevant

  Key Facts:

  • India's Foreign Trade
  • December 2025
  • Ministry of Commerce and Industry
  • Quick Estimates for selected Major Commodities
  • Merchandise Trade for SDDS
• 2025-06-21 [Economy] — India's Trade Deficit Narrows in June 2025
  India's merchandise trade deficit narrowed to $18.78 billion in June 2025, an improvement from $21.88 billion in the previous month, driven by a decline in imports. While exports remained relatively flat at $35.14 billion, imports decreased by 3.71% year-on-year to $53.92 billion. The services sector showed a surplus of $15.62 billion in June, with exports at $32.84 billion and imports at $17.58 billion.
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  UPSC Angle: India's trade deficit narrows in June 2025.

  Key Facts:

  • Merchandise trade deficit: $18.78 billion in June
  • Exports: $35.14 billion
  • Imports: $53.92 billion (down 3.71% year-on-year)
  • Services trade surplus: $15.62 billion
  • Services exports: $32.84 billion
  • Services imports: $17.58 billion
• 2025-05-02 [Economy] — India's Services Sector Contributes to GDP
  In FY 2024-25, the services sector contributed approximately 55% to India's Gross Value Added (GVA), up from 50.6% in FY14. During April-December 2024, India's services exports stood at USD 280.94 billion. From April 2000 to December 2024, the services sector attracted USD 116.72 billion in FDI, constituting about 16% of India's total FDI inflows.
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  UPSC Angle: Services sector contributed 55% to India's GVA in FY25.

  Key Facts:

  • Services sector contributed 55% to India's GVA in FY 2024-25
  • Services exports: USD 280.94 billion (April-December 2024)
  • FDI: USD 116.72 billion (April 2000-December 2024)
  • Accounts for about 16% of India's total FDI inflows

India's 2025 External Sector Stability

Focus: The structural role of India's services sector surplus and invisible receipts in stabilizing the national trade balance and offsetting merchandise deficits throughout 2025.

UPSC Value: Understanding the composition of India's Current Account and the critical importance of services exports and 'invisible' receipts in maintaining external economic stability.

3 news items in this theme:

• 2025-12-05 [Economy] — India Records Services Trade Surplus of US$ 18.12 Billion in December
  India's services sector recorded a trade surplus of Rs. 1.50 lakh crore (US$ 18.12 billion) in December 2025, driven by strong overseas demand for IT, BPO, and professional services. Services exports were estimated at Rs. 2.95 lakh crore (US$ 35.50 billion), while services imports stood at Rs. 1.44 lakh crore (US$ 17.38 billion).
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  UPSC Angle: India recorded a services trade surplus of US$ 18.12 billion in December.

  Key Facts:

  • Services trade surplus of US$ 18.12 billion in December 2025.
  • Services exports estimated at Rs. 2.95 lakh crore (US$ 35.50 billion).
  • Services imports stood at Rs. 1.44 lakh crore (US$ 17.38 billion).
• 2025-08-21 [Economy] — India's Trade Performance in August 2025
  India's foreign trade showed a turnaround in August 2025, with merchandise exports rising by 6.7% year-on-year to $35.1 billion, while imports dropped sharply by 10.12% to $61.59 billion. This resulted in a narrowed trade deficit of $26.49 billion, compared to $35.64 billion in August 2024. Cumulative exports for April–August 2025 were $349.35 billion, compared to $329.03 billion in April-August 2024, a growth of 6.18%.
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  UPSC Angle: India's merchandise exports rose by 6.7% in August 2025.

  Key Facts:

  • Exports: $35.1 billion (6.7% YoY growth).
  • Imports: $61.59 billion (10.12% YoY decline).
  • Trade Deficit: $26.49 billion (narrowed from $35.64 billion in August 2024).
  • Gold Imports: $5.43 billion (56% YoY decline).
  • Top Export Destinations: USA ($6.86 billion), UAE ($3.24 billion), Netherlands ($1.83 billion), China ($1.21 billion), UK ($1.14 billion).
  • Top Import Sources: China ($10.91 billion), Russia ($4.83 billion), UAE ($4.66 billion), USA ($3.6 billion), Saudi Arabia ($2.5 billion).
  • Cumulative exports (April-August 2025): $349.35 Billion.
  • Exports: $35.1 billion (6.7% YoY growth)
  • Imports: $61.59 billion (10.12% YoY decline)
  • Trade Deficit: $26.49 billion (narrowed from $35.64 billion in August 2024)
  • Gold Imports: $5.43 billion (56% YoY decline)
  • Top Export Destinations: USA ($6.86 billion), UAE ($3.24 billion), Netherlands ($1.83 billion), China ($1.21 billion), UK ($1.14 billion)
  • Top Import Sources: China ($10.91 billion), Russia ($4.83 billion), UAE ($4.66 billion), USA ($3.6 billion), Saudi Arabia ($2.5 billion)
  • Engineering goods exports: $9.9 billion
  • Electronic goods exports: $2.93 billion
  • Petroleum products exports: $4.48 billion
  • Drugs and pharmaceuticals exports: $2.51 billion
  • Gems & Jewellery exports: $2.31 billion
• 2025-07-07 [Economy] — India's 'Office of the World' Status
  India's strong services trade surplus of $188.8 billion, supported by remittances, helped stabilize its external balance. Invisible receipts grew from $53.5 billion in 2003–04 to $576.5 billion in 2024–25, surpassing merchandise exports. Software, business, financial, and communication services dominate India’s services exports.
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  UPSC Angle: India's strong services trade surplus stabilizes its external balance.

  Key Facts:

  • India's services trade surplus is $188.8 billion.
  • Invisible receipts grew from $53.5 billion in 2003–04 to $576.5 billion in 2024–25.

India's Expanding Bilateral Trade Profiles (2024-2025)

Focus: Reports on the growth, volume, and commodity composition of India's bilateral merchandise trade with geographically diverse partners during the 2024-2025 period.

UPSC Value: Analyzing these together helps identify trends in India's export diversification and the specific sectors, such as pharmaceuticals and services, driving trade growth across different global regions.

3 news items in this theme:

• 2025-10-14 [International Relations] — India-Canada Trade
  Merchandise trade between India and Canada grew by 16% between 2015 and 2024. Imports from India rose by around 103%, while Canadian exports increased to 23%. Service trade grew sharply to a six-fold increase, from $2.6 billion to $17.3 billion in 2023.
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  UPSC Angle: India-Canada trade grew 16% (2015-2024); imports rose 103%.

  Key Facts:

  • Merchandise trade growth (2015-2024): 16%.
  • Import increase from India: 103%.
  • Export increase from Canada: 23%.
  • Service trade growth: Six-fold.
  • Service trade value in 2023: $17.3 billion (from $2.6 billion).
• 2025-05-19 [International Relations] — Bilateral trade between India and Honduras
  India's bilateral trade with Honduras reached US$ 208.76 million in November 2024, with India's exports to Honduras accounting for US$ 182.43 million. The diplomatic relations between India and Honduras have strengthened steadily since their establishment on September 28, 1994.
  More details

  UPSC Angle: Not exam-relevant

  Key Facts:

  • Diplomatic ties established on September 28, 1994
  • Bilateral trade at US$ 208.76 million (Nov 2024)
  • India's exports to Honduras: US$ 182.43 million
  • Indian exports: Pharmaceuticals, textiles, chemicals, engineering products, automobiles
• 2025-05-12 [International Relations] — India-New Zealand Bilateral Trade
  Total merchandise trade between India and New Zealand reached USD 1.3 billion in financial year 2024–25, a 48.6% increase. India's imports include wool, iron & steel, fruit & nuts, and aluminium, while exports include pharmaceuticals, mechanical machinery, and textiles.
  More details

  UPSC Angle: India-New Zealand bilateral trade increased by 48.6%.

  Key Facts:

  • Trade reached USD 1.3 billion in FY25
  • Increased by 48.6%
  • India imports wool and exports pharmaceuticals