La Niña Induced Winter Crisis 2025-26: UPSC Current Affairs Story Arc
ExamRobot — UPSC prep tools
ExploreWhen the mercury plummeted to a three-year low of 3.2°C in January 2026, it wasn't just a weather anomaly—it was the realization of a La Niña forecast made two months prior that effectively paralyzed the education system across North India.
Overview
This arc tracks the causal link between global oceanic phenomena and local administrative crises in India. Starting with a November 2025 forecast of intensifying La Niña conditions, the narrative moves to a severe January 2026 cold wave where Delhi recorded 3.2°C. This extreme weather forced a widespread shutdown of schools across North India by January 14, 2026. Beyond just 'chilly weather,' this event highlights how climate cycles like La Niña directly impact governance, the Right to Education, and disaster preparedness in one of the world's most populous regions.
How This Story Evolved
La Niña forecast predicts intense cold → Severe cold wave hits Delhi (Seed) → Schools shut down as a safety measure
- 2025-11-21: La Niña's Impact on India's Winter
More details
UPSC Angle: La Niña may intensify cold spells and snowfall in Himalayas.
Key Facts:
- La Niña to intensify cold spells
- Potential for more frequent cold wave days
- Likely increase in snowfall in the Himalayas
- 2026-01-13: Delhi Cold Wave
More details
UPSC Angle: Delhi experiences cold wave.
Key Facts:
- Temperature dropped to 3.2°C
- 2026-01-14: Schools shut across North India due to cold wave and festival holidays
More details
UPSC Angle: School closures due to cold wave highlight climate's impact on education.
Key Facts:
- Climate impact on education
- Right to Education
- disaster preparedness
Genesis
Trigger
On November 21, 2025, meteorological forecasts identified intensifying La Niña conditions, predicting more frequent cold wave days and lower nighttime temperatures for the 2025-26 winter season.
Why Now
The shift from ENSO-neutral or El Niño conditions to a strong La Niña phase increased the pressure gradient and strengthened the flow of cold air from the Siberian/Himalayan regions into the Indo-Gangetic plains.
Historical Context
Historically, La Niña years in India are associated with colder-than-normal winters and higher-than-average monsoon rainfall, contrasting with El Niño which often brings droughts and milder winters.
Key Turning Points
- [2025-11-21] La Niña Intensification Forecast
Shifted the narrative from a 'normal winter' to a 'disaster-preparedness' footing for energy and education sectors.
Before: Routine winter planning. After: Specific warnings for frost risk and increased energy demand.
- [2026-01-13] Delhi records 3.2°C
The quantitative trigger for administrative action; it validated the 2-month-old forecast.
Before: Schools were operating despite the chill. After: Public health emergency declared for school children.
Key Actors and Institutions
| Name | Role | Relevance |
|---|---|---|
| IMD Officials | India Meteorological Department Forecast Division | Provided the critical January 13, 2026 forecast and temperature readings (3.2°C) that served as the evidentiary basis for administrative shutdowns. |
| State Education Secretaries | Administrative heads of State Education Departments | Issued the official mandates on January 14, 2026, to shut schools across North India to protect student health during the cold wave. |
Key Institutions
- India Meteorological Department (IMD)
- National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA)
- State Education Departments (North Indian States)
- World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
Key Concepts
La Niña
The cooling of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, which strengthens the trade winds and typically causes lower winter temperatures in North India.
Current Fact: Forecasts on Nov 21, 2025, predicted La Niña would intensify cold spells and snowfall in the Himalayas.
Cold Wave (IMD Criteria)
In the plains, a cold wave is declared when the minimum temperature is 4.5°C to 6.4°C below normal, or when the actual minimum temperature is ≤ 4°C.
Current Fact: Delhi's temperature dropped to 3.2°C on January 13, 2026, meeting the 'Severe Cold Wave' threshold.
Right to Education (Article 21A)
The fundamental right of children (6-14 years) to free and compulsory education, which faces systemic 'climate-resilience' challenges during extreme weather disruptions.
Current Fact: Schools shut across North India on Jan 14, 2026, raising concerns about climate impact on consistent education.
What Happens Next
Current Status
As of January 14, 2026, schools across North India remain closed due to the cold wave, coinciding with traditional winter festivals like Makar Sankranti.
Likely Next
A gradual reopening of schools as temperatures stabilize, followed by an assessment of the academic 'learning gap' caused by climate-induced closures.
Wildcards
A sudden 'Western Disturbance' could either bring relief through cloud cover (trapping heat) or worsen the crisis through unseasonal rain and hail, further extending school holidays.
Why UPSC Cares
Syllabus Topics
- Salient features of world’s physical geography
- Issues relating to development and management of Social Sector/Services relating to Education
- Disaster and disaster management
Essay Angles
- Climate Change: The New Disruptor of Human Rights
- Building Climate-Resilient Education Systems in India
- The Economic and Social Toll of Global Oceanic Oscillations
Prelims Likely: Yes
Mains Likely: Yes
Trend Signal: rising
Exam Intelligence
Previous Year Question Connections
- Difference between El Niño and La Niña and their impacts. — This arc provides a contemporary case study of the La Niña impact on Indian winter, whereas the PYQ focused on general characteristics.
- Factors causing cold waves in North India. — Directly tests the geographical reasons—lack of maritime influence and Himalayan proximity—that made the 3.2°C Delhi low possible.
Prelims Angles
- IMD criteria for 'Cold Wave' (4.5°C departure) vs 'Severe Cold Wave' (6.4°C departure).
- Impact of La Niña on the Jet Stream and its subsequent effect on North Indian winter stability.
- Role of Western Disturbances in potentially breaking a La Niña-induced cold spell.
Mains Preparation
Sample Question: Examine the socio-economic impacts of the La Niña phenomenon on India's North-Western plains. How should disaster management frameworks evolve to protect the Right to Education during extreme weather events?
Answer Structure: Introduction (Define La Niña and its 2025-26 impact) → Geographic Mechanism (Cold air subsidence, Siberian influence) → Socio-Economic Impacts (Agriculture-wheat benefit vs frost risk; Education-school closures) → Critical Analysis (Vulnerability of children, Article 21A vs Safety) → Way Forward (Climate-resilient school calendars, digital bridges).
Essay Topic: Nature's Rhythm and Human Resilience: Navigating the Extremes of the 21st Century.
Textbook Connections
Geography of India, Majid Husain, Chapter 4: Climate of India, p. 11
Explains the La Niña mechanism where cooling of central Pacific leads to abnormal circulation patterns.
Gap: Textbook focuses on the 'normal' monsoon benefit; it rarely details the specific 'crisis' potential for the education sector shown in this arc.
Environment and Ecology, Majid Husain, Chapter 8: Natural Hazards, p. 53
Defines cold wave as a fall of 6° to 8°C from normal.
Gap: Does not account for the increasing frequency of these events in the context of global climate shift (2025-26 scenario).
Quick Revision
- La Niña Forecast: Nov 21, 2025, predicted intensified cold spells.
- Delhi Low: Jan 13, 2026, recorded 3.2°C (3-year January low).
- Policy Response: Schools across North India shut down on Jan 14, 2026.
- IMD Cold Wave Criteria: Min temp ≤ 4°C or departure of 4.5°C to 6.4°C.
- Syllabus Link: Connects ENSO cycles (GS-1) with Right to Education (GS-2) and Disaster Management (GS-3).
- Winter Crop Impact: La Niña generally benefits wheat but increases frost risk for mustard/horticulture.
Key Takeaway
The 2025-26 winter crisis demonstrates that climate phenomena like La Niña are no longer just 'geography topics' but are active triggers for administrative emergencies that disrupt fundamental rights like education.
All Events in This Story (3 items)
- 2025-11-21 [Geography] — La Niña's Impact on India's Winter
La Niña conditions are expected to intensify cold spells, potentially leading to more frequent cold wave days, lower nighttime temperatures, and greater snowfall in the Himalayas. This may benefit winter crops like wheat but also increases frost risks and energy demand.More details
UPSC Angle: La Niña may intensify cold spells and snowfall in Himalayas.
Key Facts:
- La Niña to intensify cold spells
- Potential for more frequent cold wave days
- Likely increase in snowfall in the Himalayas
- 2026-01-13 [Geography] — Delhi Cold Wave
Delhi experienced a cold wave with temperatures dropping to a three-year January low of 3.2°C. The India Meteorological Department forecasts continued chilly conditions.More details
UPSC Angle: Delhi experiences cold wave.
Key Facts:
- Temperature dropped to 3.2°C
- 2026-01-14 [Society & Culture] — Schools shut across North India due to cold wave and festival holidays
Schools across North India have been closed due to a cold wave and festival holidays, raising concerns about the climate's impact on education. This is significant for UPSC as it relates to society, climate impact on education, and the right to education.More details
UPSC Angle: School closures due to cold wave highlight climate's impact on education.
Key Facts:
- Climate impact on education
- Right to Education
- disaster preparedness
Explore More Current Affairs
Browse all current affairs themes and story arcs on our blog