Operation Sindoor: The 2025 Indo-Pak Conflict: UPSC Current Affairs Story Arc
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ExploreIn just 72 hours between May 7 and May 10, 2025, 'Operation Sindoor' decimated multiple Pakistani air bases, forcing a military plea for ceasefire and the immediate 'abeyance' of the 65-year-old Indus Waters Treaty. This arc marks the first time India has officially linked the 1960 water-sharing pact directly to the cessation of cross-border terrorism.
Overview
Operation Sindoor represents a watershed moment in Indo-Pak relations, transitioning from a failed dialogue push in early 2025 to high-intensity kinetic conflict following the Pahalgam terror attack. Between May 7 and 10, Indian forces conducted retaliatory strikes (Operation Sindoor) targeting Pakistani air assets. The aftermath saw a total diplomatic freeze: India rejected mediation attempts by both the US and China, asserting the 'bilateral' nature of the Kashmir dispute under the Simla Agreement. Crucially, India shifted its regional focus entirely from SAARC to BIMSTEC and effectively suspended cooperation under the Indus Waters Treaty, demanding 'zero tolerance' for terrorism before any further engagement.
How This Story Evolved
Dialogue push fails → Pahalgam attack triggers conflict/UNSC meet → Ceasefire & US mediation rejection → Post-war diplomatic freeze (SAARC/Indus Treaty) → UNGA showdown
- 2025-03-01: India-Pak Dialogue
More details
UPSC Angle: Push for India-Pakistan dialogue resumption.
Key Facts:
- India
- Pakistan
- Dialogue resumption
- 2025-05-05: UNSC to Discuss India-Pakistan Tensions
More details
UPSC Angle: UNSC consultations on India-Pakistan tensions.
Key Facts:
- UN Security Council (UNSC) held closed consultations on May 5, 2025, on the India-Pakistan situation.
- Islamabad requested an emergency meeting.
- Pakistan is a non-permanent member of the UNSC.
- Greece presided over the UNSC for May.
- Tensions rose after the Pahalgam terror attack.
- 2025-05-14: Analysis of India-Pakistan Ceasefire Dynamics
More details
UPSC Angle: India and Pakistan agree to consider troop reduction along borders.
Key Facts:
- India
- Pakistan
- troop reduction
- Directors-General of Military Operations (DGMOs)
- 2025-05-14: India Rejects US Claim of Mediation
More details
UPSC Angle: India rejects US claim of mediation on nuclear war with Pakistan.
Key Facts:
- India underlined that all military actions launched by its armed forces in response to the escalatory offensives by Pakistan were in the domain of 'conventional' warfare
- India dismissed Trump's claim that the US had made the two nations agree on a 'ceasefire'
- India's position has been that any issues related to Jammu and Kashmir have to be addressed by India and Pakistan bilaterally
- 2025-05-14: India Reasserts Stand on Kashmir After U.S. Claims
More details
UPSC Angle: India reasserts stand on Kashmir after U.S. claims.
Key Facts:
- India
- Kashmir
- U.S.
- India regards Jammu and Kashmir as a “bilateral” issue to be addressed within the framework of India-Pakistan ties.
- 2025-05-16: India to Step Up Diplomatic Outreach on Indo-Pak Clash
More details
UPSC Angle: India to step up diplomatic outreach on Indo-Pak clash.
Key Facts:
- Centre
- diplomatic outreach
- Indo-Pak clash
- 2025-05-19: India Sidelines SAARC, Focuses on BIMSTEC
More details
UPSC Angle: India prioritizes BIMSTEC over SAARC due to geopolitical reasons.
Key Facts:
- Ceasefire announced on May 10, 2025.
- India focusing on BIMSTEC.
- India wants dialogue limited to terrorism and water issues.
- External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar maintained that all matters between India and Pakistan would be addressed bilaterally
- 2025-05-22: MEA discusses bilateral issues, cross-border terrorism with Pakistan
More details
UPSC Angle: MEA discusses bilateral issues and cross-border terrorism with Pakistan.
Key Facts:
- India is open to discussing handing over a list of wanted terrorists to Pakistan.
- External Affairs Minister thanked Afghanistan for their support on the Pahalgam terror attack.
- Details of Operation Sindoor were conveyed, emphasizing zero tolerance for terrorism.
- 2025-06-11: India-Pakistan Conflict
More details
UPSC Angle: Not exam-relevant
Key Facts:
- India Pakistan conflict remains unresolved despite global diplomatic efforts
- 2025-07-25: Government Says Pakistan Hinders SAARC Dialogue
More details
UPSC Angle: Pakistan hinders SAARC dialogue; cross-border terrorism allegations.
Key Facts:
- SAARC
- Pakistan
- Cross-border terrorism
- Kirti Vardhan Singh
- 19th SAARC Summit postponed in November 2016
- 2025-09-29: India addresses Pakistan's claims at UN General Assembly
More details
UPSC Angle: India responds to Pakistan's claims at UN General Assembly.
Key Facts:
- India exercised the right to defend its people against terrorist actions
- Pakistan military pleaded for a cessation of fighting on May 10
- Multiple Pakistani air bases were destroyed by Indian forces
- Pakistan is responsible for a terrorist attack on innocent civilians in India
- 2025-12-31: China 'mediated' in Pakistan, India tensions
More details
UPSC Angle: China claimed to have mediated tensions between India and Pakistan.
Key Facts:
- China 'mediated' tensions between India and Pakistan.
- May 7-10 conflict between India and Pakistan.
Genesis
Trigger
The Pahalgam terror attack in early May 2025 served as the 'casus belli,' prompting Pakistan (then a non-permanent UNSC member) to call for an emergency meeting on May 5, 2025.
Why Now
A brief window for dialogue in March 2025 failed to materialize into security guarantees, leading to a spike in infiltration and the subsequent high-profile attack in Pahalgam.
Historical Context
The arc mirrors the post-Uri (2016) and post-Pulwama (2019) cycles but escalates by formalizing the 'abeyance' of the Indus Waters Treaty, a treaty that had previously survived three major wars.
Key Turning Points
- [2025-05-10] Pakistan military pleads for a cessation of fighting.
Marked the end of the kinetic phase of 'Operation Sindoor' and confirmed the superiority of Indian conventional strikes.
Before: Active air strikes and destruction of bases. After: Transition to a diplomatic freeze and DGMO-led ceasefire.
- [2025-05-22] MEA links Indus Waters Treaty to terrorism.
Shifted India's strategy from military retaliation to economic and resource-based leverage.
Before: IWT treated as a technical water-sharing pact. After: IWT used as a strategic tool against state-sponsored terror.
Key Actors and Institutions
| Name | Role | Relevance |
|---|---|---|
| S. Jaishankar | External Affairs Minister | Maintained the hardline stance that dialogue is limited to terrorism and water issues, rejecting all third-party mediation attempts. |
| Kirti Vardhan Singh | Minister of State for External Affairs | Formally informed the Indian Parliament in July 2025 that Pakistan's sponsoring of terrorism was the primary hurdle to SAARC dialogue. |
| Wang Yi | Chinese Foreign Minister | Claimed China 'mediated' the May 7-10 conflict, a claim India disputed, asserting the resolution happened via direct DGMO talks. |
Key Institutions
- UN Security Council (UNSC)
- South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC)
- Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC)
- Directors-General of Military Operations (DGMOs)
Key Concepts
Bilateralism
The principle, established in the 1972 Simla Agreement, that all India-Pakistan disputes must be settled between the two nations without third-party intervention.
Current Fact: India rejected US and Chinese mediation claims on May 14 and December 31, 2025, respectively.
Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) Abeyance
A legal state of temporary suspension of treaty obligations. The IWT (1960) governs the sharing of six rivers between India and Pakistan.
Current Fact: On May 22, 2025, the MEA stated the IWT will remain in abeyance until cross-border terrorism ends.
Right of Reply (RoR)
A UN General Assembly procedure allowing member states to respond to statements made by other members that affect them.
Current Fact: India exercised its RoR on September 29, 2025, to counter Pakistan's narrative regarding the May conflict.
What Happens Next
Current Status
As of December 31, 2025, the conflict remains 'unresolved' despite a ceasefire, with India maintaining a policy of 'diplomatic isolation' against Pakistan at the UNGA and regional forums.
Likely Next
Continued focus on BIMSTEC meetings to isolate Pakistan; potential legal challenges in the Permanent Court of Arbitration regarding the Indus Waters Treaty status.
Wildcards
Chinese military assistance to Pakistan (noted in December 2025) could escalate into a two-front pressure point if border tensions on the LAC flare up.
Why UPSC Cares
Syllabus Topics
- India and its neighborhood- relations
- Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India
- Linkages of organized crime with terrorism
Essay Angles
- Water as a weapon of diplomacy
- The decline of SAARC and the rise of sub-regionalism
- Is bilateralism still relevant in a multipolar world?
Prelims Likely: Yes
Mains Likely: Yes
Trend Signal: rising
Exam Intelligence
Previous Year Question Connections
- Membership and founding of BIMSTEC. — This arc shows India's practical pivot from SAARC to BIMSTEC as its primary regional platform.
- Definition of Eastern and Western rivers under the Indus Waters Treaty. — Directly relevant as the MEA placed the entire treaty in abeyance during the May 2025 crisis.
- Provisions of the Simla Agreement regarding the sanctity of the LoC. — Forms the legal basis for India's 2025 rejection of US/Chinese mediation.
Prelims Angles
- Greece's presidency of the UNSC in May 2025.
- The status of Pakistan as a non-permanent member of the UNSC during the crisis.
- The official dates of 'Operation Sindoor' (May 7-10, 2025).
- Difference between the rivers allocated to India (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) and Pakistan (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) under the IWT.
Mains Preparation
Sample Question: Evaluate the strategic shift in India’s neighborhood policy following the 2025 conflict, with special focus on the 'abeyance' of the Indus Waters Treaty and the functional replacement of SAARC by BIMSTEC.
Answer Structure: Intro: Context of Pahalgam attack and Op Sindoor → Body 1: The military outcome (destruction of air bases) and re-establishment of deterrence → Body 2: Diplomatic shift—Bilateralism vs. third-party mediation (US/China claims) → Body 3: Resource Diplomacy—Linking water (IWT) to security (terrorism) → Critical Analysis: The survival of SAARC vs the rise of BIMSTEC → Conclusion: India's move toward 'Neighborhood First' without Pakistan.
Essay Topic: Bilateralism: The Bedrock of India's Strategic Autonomy in the 21st Century.
Textbook Connections
Contemporary World Politics, NCERT (2025 ed.) > Chapter 3: Contemporary South Asia > p. 39
Explains that the IWT survived various military conflicts; the 2025 'abeyance' creates a historical departure from this textbook fact.
Gap: Textbook says IWT 'has survived to this day'; doesn't account for the 2025 strategic suspension due to terror.
Rajiv Ahir. A Brief History of Modern India (2019 ed.). SPECTRUM. > Chapter 39: The Simla Agreement > p. 697
Provides the foundational context for the 'bilateral' principle India used to reject Trump and Wang Yi's mediation claims.
Gap: Textbook focuses on the 1972 context; this arc shows the principle being applied in a high-tech drone and air-strike era (2025).
Quick Revision
- Conflict Name: Operation Sindoor (May 7-10, 2025).
- Cause: Pahalgam terror attack and failed March dialogue push.
- UNSC Status: Greece held presidency (May 2025); Pakistan was non-permanent member.
- Water Treaty: Indus Waters Treaty put in 'abeyance' on May 22, 2025.
- Bilateralism: Rejection of US (Trump) and Chinese (Wang Yi) mediation claims.
- Regional Shift: Official prioritization of BIMSTEC over SAARC.
- UNGA Date: India's Right of Reply exercised on September 29, 2025.
- Military Outcome: Multiple Pakistani air bases destroyed by May 10.
Key Takeaway
The 2025 conflict permanently linked India’s historical water-sharing and regional cooperation commitments (IWT and SAARC) to Pakistan's tangible actions on cross-border terrorism.
All Events in This Story (12 items)
- 2025-03-01 [International Relations] — India-Pak Dialogue
There's a push for India-Pakistan dialogue resumption from both sides, with the understanding that neighbors have no choice.More details
UPSC Angle: Push for India-Pakistan dialogue resumption.
Key Facts:
- India
- Pakistan
- Dialogue resumption
- 2025-05-05 [International Relations] — UNSC to Discuss India-Pakistan Tensions
The UN Security Council held closed consultations on May 5, 2025, regarding the situation between India and Pakistan, following a request from Islamabad for an emergency meeting amid rising tensions after the Pahalgam terror attack. Pakistan, a non-permanent member of the UNSC, sought the meeting, which was presided over by Greece for the month of May. The meeting aimed to address the escalating tensions and explore ways to de-escalate the situation.More details
UPSC Angle: UNSC consultations on India-Pakistan tensions.
Key Facts:
- UN Security Council (UNSC) held closed consultations on May 5, 2025, on the India-Pakistan situation.
- Islamabad requested an emergency meeting.
- Pakistan is a non-permanent member of the UNSC.
- Greece presided over the UNSC for May.
- Tensions rose after the Pahalgam terror attack.
- 2025-05-14 [International Relations] — Analysis of India-Pakistan Ceasefire Dynamics
India and Pakistan agreed to consider immediate troop reduction along the borders, reaffirming their commitment to avoid any aggressive action or gunfire in forward areas. The agreement was reached during talks between the Directors-General of Military Operations (DGMOs) of both countries, furthering their earlier understanding to cease all military activity.More details
UPSC Angle: India and Pakistan agree to consider troop reduction along borders.
Key Facts:
- India
- Pakistan
- troop reduction
- Directors-General of Military Operations (DGMOs)
- 2025-05-14 [International Relations] — India Rejects US Claim of Mediation
India rejected the US claim of mediation on nuclear war and ceasefire with Pakistan, underlining that all military actions were in the domain of conventional warfare. India dismissed Trump's claim that the US had made the two nations agree on a 'ceasefire' and reiterated that any issues related to Jammu and Kashmir have to be addressed bilaterally with Pakistan.More details
UPSC Angle: India rejects US claim of mediation on nuclear war with Pakistan.
Key Facts:
- India underlined that all military actions launched by its armed forces in response to the escalatory offensives by Pakistan were in the domain of 'conventional' warfare
- India dismissed Trump's claim that the US had made the two nations agree on a 'ceasefire'
- India's position has been that any issues related to Jammu and Kashmir have to be addressed by India and Pakistan bilaterally
- 2025-05-14 [International Relations] — India Reasserts Stand on Kashmir After U.S. Claims
India has reaffirmed its position on Kashmir following claims made by the United States. This action underscores the continued importance of the Kashmir issue in India's foreign policy and its relationship with the U.S.More details
UPSC Angle: India reasserts stand on Kashmir after U.S. claims.
Key Facts:
- India
- Kashmir
- U.S.
- India regards Jammu and Kashmir as a “bilateral” issue to be addressed within the framework of India-Pakistan ties.
- 2025-05-16 [International Relations] — India to Step Up Diplomatic Outreach on Indo-Pak Clash
The Centre is set to increase diplomatic efforts to address the Indo-Pak situation. This move aims to manage and potentially de-escalate tensions through diplomatic channels.More details
UPSC Angle: India to step up diplomatic outreach on Indo-Pak clash.
Key Facts:
- Centre
- diplomatic outreach
- Indo-Pak clash
- 2025-05-19 [International Relations] — India Sidelines SAARC, Focuses on BIMSTEC
Despite Pakistan's repeated offers for dialogue since the May 10 ceasefire, India remains unwilling to engage, preferring alternative regional platforms like BIMSTEC; however, these platforms haven't gained similar traction. India's focus on terrorism and water issues as the main discussion points limits prospects for sustainable peace, as it excludes the Kashmir dispute.More details
UPSC Angle: India prioritizes BIMSTEC over SAARC due to geopolitical reasons.
Key Facts:
- Ceasefire announced on May 10, 2025.
- India focusing on BIMSTEC.
- India wants dialogue limited to terrorism and water issues.
- External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar maintained that all matters between India and Pakistan would be addressed bilaterally
- 2025-05-22 [International Relations] — MEA discusses bilateral issues, cross-border terrorism with Pakistan
During a media briefing on May 22, 2025, the MEA stated that any bilateral discussion on Jammu and Kashmir will only address Pakistan vacating illegally occupied Indian territory. The MEA also stated that the Indus Waters Treaty will remain in abeyance until Pakistan credibly stops supporting cross-border terrorism.More details
UPSC Angle: MEA discusses bilateral issues and cross-border terrorism with Pakistan.
Key Facts:
- India is open to discussing handing over a list of wanted terrorists to Pakistan.
- External Affairs Minister thanked Afghanistan for their support on the Pahalgam terror attack.
- Details of Operation Sindoor were conveyed, emphasizing zero tolerance for terrorism.
- 2025-06-11 [International Relations] — India-Pakistan Conflict
The India-Pakistan conflict remains unresolved despite global diplomatic efforts.More details
UPSC Angle: Not exam-relevant
Key Facts:
- India Pakistan conflict remains unresolved despite global diplomatic efforts
- 2025-07-25 [International Relations] — Government Says Pakistan Hinders SAARC Dialogue
The Indian government informed Parliament that efforts to continue SAARC dialogue are hindered by Pakistan's alleged sponsoring of cross-border terrorism and blocking trade and transport connectivity. Minister of State for External Affairs Kirti Vardhan Singh stated that India supports cooperation within SAARC.More details
UPSC Angle: Pakistan hinders SAARC dialogue; cross-border terrorism allegations.
Key Facts:
- SAARC
- Pakistan
- Cross-border terrorism
- Kirti Vardhan Singh
- 19th SAARC Summit postponed in November 2016
- 2025-09-29 [International Relations] — India addresses Pakistan's claims at UN General Assembly
India exercised its right of reply at the UN General Assembly, responding to the Pakistani Prime Minister's account of the recent conflict, stating that Pakistan sought a cessation of fighting after Indian forces caused destruction to Pakistani air bases. India also asserted its right to defend its people against terrorist attacks and bring the organizers to justice.More details
UPSC Angle: India responds to Pakistan's claims at UN General Assembly.
Key Facts:
- India exercised the right to defend its people against terrorist actions
- Pakistan military pleaded for a cessation of fighting on May 10
- Multiple Pakistani air bases were destroyed by Indian forces
- Pakistan is responsible for a terrorist attack on innocent civilians in India
- 2025-12-31 [International Relations] — China 'mediated' in Pakistan, India tensions
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said China “mediated” tensions between India and Pakistan. China's role in the May 7-10 Operation Sindoor conflict between India and Pakistan this year came under serious scrutiny and criticism, especially the military assistance provided by Beijing to Islamabad. New Delhi has been maintaining that the May 7-10 conflict between India and Pakistan was resolved through direct talks between the DGMOs of the armies of the two countries.More details
UPSC Angle: China claimed to have mediated tensions between India and Pakistan.
Key Facts:
- China 'mediated' tensions between India and Pakistan.
- May 7-10 conflict between India and Pakistan.
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