The Collapse of the 1.5°C Target: UPSC Current Affairs Story Arc

Overview

This arc tracks the systemic collapse of the 1.5°C global warming target between May 2025 and February 2026. It begins with scientific forecasts from the WMO warning of an imminent temperature breach, followed by UNEP data confirming that global greenhouse gas emissions hit an all-time high of 57.7 GtCO2e in 2024. Despite 60 countries submitting updated climate pledges (NDCs), the 'Emissions Gap' remains vast, with current policies projecting a 2.8°C warming. The arc culminates in a governance analysis that labels the 1.5°C target 'unrealistic,' highlighting a massive failure in climate finance (trillions required annually) and the lack of enforceable compliance mechanisms. For India, this signals a shift from 'mitigation-first' to an urgent need for 'adaptation-heavy' strategies as the global community prepares for a 2°C+ world.

How This Story Evolved

WMO forecasts 1.5°C breach likely (May 2025) → UNEP reports emissions are 'Off Target' (Nov 2025) → Data confirms record 2024 emissions (Feb 2026) → Governance analysis concludes 1.5°C is unrealistic (Feb 2026)

1. 2025-05-30: WMO Forecast: Global Temperature Likely to Breach 1.5°C
   More details

   UPSC Angle: WMO forecasts increasing likelihood of breaching the critical 1.5°C warming threshold.

   Key Facts:

   • Report: Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (2025–2029)
   • Probability: 70% chance of exceeding 1.5°C warming between 2025-2029
   • Probability: 80% chance that at least one year will exceed the record set in 2024
   • Probability: 86% likelihood that at least one year in this five-year period will breach the 1.5°C threshold
   • Temperature range: Projected between 1.2°C and 1.9°C above the 1850–1900 average
2. 2025-11-06: UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2025
   More details

   UPSC Angle: UNEP report warns current pledges exceed Paris Agreement goals.

   Key Facts:

   • UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2025
   • "Off Target"
   • Temperature rise: 2.3–2.5°C
   • Global GHG emissions (2024): 57.7 gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent
   • 60 Parties submitted new NDCs for 2035, covering 63% of global emissions
   • Emissions need to fall by 55% by 2035 to align with 1.5°C target
   • UNEP
   • Emissions Gap Report 2025
   • Paris Agreement
   • 1.5°C
   • 2°C
3. 2026-02-07: UN report warns global emissions continue to rise
   More details

   UPSC Angle: UNEP report: Global emissions reached 57.4 GtCO₂e in 2024.

   Key Facts:

   • Global greenhouse gas emissions reached 57.4 GtCO₂e in 2024
   • Current policies project a 2.8°C warming
4. 2026-02-07: Global Climate Governance Challenges
   More details

   UPSC Angle: Global climate governance faces challenges under the UNFCCC.

   Key Facts:

   • Challenges: Failure to meet temperature targets, inadequate climate finance, weak adaptation framework
   • Temperature Target: Limiting warming to 1.5°C has become unrealistic
   • Financial Needs: Developing countries require trillions of dollars annually for mitigation and adaptation
   • Global emissions reached record levels in 2024

Genesis

Trigger

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released the 'Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (2025–2029)' on May 30, 2025.

Why Now

The report was triggered by the analysis of 2024 temperature data, which served as a baseline for the five-year forecast, showing an 80% chance of surpassing 2024's record heat.

Historical Context

Since the 2015 Paris Agreement, the 1.5°C target was the 'aspirational' limit, while 2°C was the 'hard' limit. This arc represents the formal scientific acknowledgement that the aspirational limit is no longer viable.

Key Turning Points

1. [2025-05-30] WMO Forecasts 70% probability of 1.5°C breach

   It moved the 1.5°C breach from a distant possibility to a statistical certainty for the current decade.

   Before: 1.5°C was a target to be saved. After: 1.5°C became a threshold to be crossed.

2. [2025-11-06] UNEP Emissions Gap Report 'Off Target' released

   Quantified the failure of current NDCs, showing they lead to 2.3–2.5°C warming rather than 1.5°C.

   Before: Hope that 2035 NDCs would close the gap. After: Realization that even updated pledges are insufficient.

Key Actors and Institutions

Key Institutions

• World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
• United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
• United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

Key Concepts

Emissions Gap

The difference between the greenhouse gas levels that the world is likely to emit based on current policies and the levels required to stay within temperature limits.

Current Fact: Global GHG emissions rose 2.3% in 2024, reaching a record 57.7 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent.

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)

Climate action plans to cut emissions and adapt to climate impacts that each party to the Paris Agreement is required to establish every five years.

Current Fact: 60 Parties submitted new NDCs for 2035 by November 2025, covering 63% of global emissions.

1.5°C Threshold

The global warming limit set in the Paris Agreement to avoid the most catastrophic tipping points in the Earth's climate system.

Current Fact: WMO forecasts an 86% likelihood that at least one year between 2025-2029 will breach this threshold.

What Happens Next

Current Status

As of February 2026, international climate governance has shifted to analyzing why temperature targets failed, focusing on the inadequacy of finance and adaptation frameworks.

Likely Next

Expect the next COP (Conference of Parties) to pivot toward 'Loss and Damage' and massive adaptation funding, as the mitigation gap (2.3-2.8°C) is now too large to close with current NDCs.

Wildcards

A sudden breakthrough in Article 6 (carbon markets) or a 'Climate Club' of major emitters imposing carbon border taxes (like EU's CBAM) could theoretically disrupt the 2.8°C trajectory.

Why UPSC Cares

Syllabus Topics

• Conservation, environmental pollution and degradation, environmental impact assessment
• Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India and/or affecting India's interests

Essay Angles

• The Mirage of 1.5°C: Why Climate Governance Failed
• Climate Finance: The Trillion-Dollar Bridge to a Sustainable Future
• Adaptation in a 2.8°C World: India's Imperative

Prelims Likely: Yes

Mains Likely: Yes

Trend Signal: rising

Exam Intelligence

Previous Year Question Connections

• Aims of the Paris Agreement to limit rise to 2°C or even 1.5°C. — This arc provides the 'current affairs' update that the 1.5°C aim mentioned in the 2016 PYQ is now scientifically considered unrealistic.
• Article 6 of the Paris Agreement and Carbon Markets. — Item 4 highlights the failure of governance mechanisms; Article 6 is the primary market-based mechanism intended to bridge the finance and emissions gap mentioned here.
• India's climate targets (Net Zero 2070, 500 GW). — The arc's mention of record emissions (57.7 Gt) explains why India's domestic targets are being scrutinized against global scientific requirements.

Prelims Angles

• WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (2025–2029) specific probabilities (70% for period, 86% for one year).
• UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2025 title ('Off Target') and the 2024 record emissions figure (57.7 GtCO2e).
• The projected temperature rise under current policies (2.8°C) vs. current pledges (2.3–2.5°C).
• The baseline years for pre-industrial temperature comparison (1850–1900).

Mains Preparation

Sample Question: Scientific reports from WMO and UNEP in 2025-26 suggest that the 1.5°C target of the Paris Agreement is no longer realistic. Critically analyze the failures of global climate governance and discuss the implications for developing nations like India.

Answer Structure: Intro: Cite 2024 record emissions (57.7 GtCO2e) and WMO forecast of breach → Body 1: Governance failures (Inadequate finance in trillions, lack of enforceable compliance, weak adaptation framework) → Body 2: The Emissions Gap (Current policies at 2.8°C vs 1.5°C target) → Critical Analysis: The shift from mitigation to mandatory adaptation → Way Forward: Reforming UNFCCC, operationalizing Article 6, and Global South's demand for climate justice.

Essay Topic: From Mitigation to Survival: Living in a Post-1.5°C World.

Textbook Connections

Key Takeaway

The 1.5°C target has moved from a climate goal to a governance failure, necessitating a drastic shift in India's policy toward massive adaptation and demanding trillions in climate finance.

All Events in This Story (4 items)

1. 2025-05-30 [Environment & Ecology] — WMO Forecast: Global Temperature Likely to Breach 1.5°C
   The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released its climate outlook, 'Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (2025–2029)', forecasting an increasing likelihood of breaching the critical 1.5°C warming limit set by the Paris Agreement. There is a 70% probability that the average global temperature for this period will surpass 1.5°C above the pre-industrial baseline.
   More details

   UPSC Angle: WMO forecasts increasing likelihood of breaching the critical 1.5°C warming threshold.

   Key Facts:

   • Report: Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (2025–2029)
   • Probability: 70% chance of exceeding 1.5°C warming between 2025-2029
   • Probability: 80% chance that at least one year will exceed the record set in 2024
   • Probability: 86% likelihood that at least one year in this five-year period will breach the 1.5°C threshold
   • Temperature range: Projected between 1.2°C and 1.9°C above the 1850–1900 average
2. 2025-11-06 [Environment & Ecology] — UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2025
   The UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2025, titled "Off Target", warns that current climate pledges will lead to a global temperature rise of 2.3–2.5°C, exceeding the Paris Agreement goals. Global GHG emissions rose 2.3% in 2024, reaching 57.7 gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent. The report is the 16th edition of UNEP's annual assessment, measuring the gap between projected emissions and levels needed to limit global warming.
   More details

   UPSC Angle: UNEP report warns current pledges exceed Paris Agreement goals.

   Key Facts:

   • UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2025
   • "Off Target"
   • Temperature rise: 2.3–2.5°C
   • Global GHG emissions (2024): 57.7 gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent
   • 60 Parties submitted new NDCs for 2035, covering 63% of global emissions
   • Emissions need to fall by 55% by 2035 to align with 1.5°C target
   • UNEP
   • Emissions Gap Report 2025
   • Paris Agreement
   • 1.5°C
   • 2°C
3. 2026-02-07 [Environment & Ecology] — UN report warns global emissions continue to rise
   A recent UNEP report indicates that global greenhouse gas emissions reached a record high of 57.4 GtCO₂e in 2024, with current policies projecting a 2.8°C warming, exceeding the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C goal. The report highlights the need for binding commitments and enforceable compliance mechanisms to address climate change.
   More details

   UPSC Angle: UNEP report: Global emissions reached 57.4 GtCO₂e in 2024.

   Key Facts:

   • Global greenhouse gas emissions reached 57.4 GtCO₂e in 2024
   • Current policies project a 2.8°C warming
4. 2026-02-07 [Environment & Ecology] — Global Climate Governance Challenges
   Global climate governance under the UNFCCC faces challenges including failure to meet temperature targets, inadequate climate finance, and a weak adaptation framework. The goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C has become unrealistic due to rising emissions, and developing countries require trillions of dollars annually for mitigation and adaptation.
   More details

   UPSC Angle: Global climate governance faces challenges under the UNFCCC.

   Key Facts:

   • Challenges: Failure to meet temperature targets, inadequate climate finance, weak adaptation framework
   • Temperature Target: Limiting warming to 1.5°C has become unrealistic
   • Financial Needs: Developing countries require trillions of dollars annually for mitigation and adaptation
   • Global emissions reached record levels in 2024